Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red prediction: Griff Aldrich's rebuilt Pepperdine opens against Cornell's three-point barrage
A program starting over with 13 newcomers is favored on the road against an Ivy offense that shot its way to 88.5 points a game last season but lost the players who fired those shots.
| Spread | Pepperdine -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 164.5 |
- Expect a fast, shot-heavy opener in Ithaca, where Cornell's system tests whether Pepperdine's brand-new roster can defend the arc in its first game together.
- Watch Jahari Williamson, a 44.5% three-point shooter at Kent State last season, against a Cornell defense that ranked 357th in opponent 3-point percentage.
- Pepperdine has moved from a 1.5-point to a 3.5-point favorite. The total of 164 leans on Cornell's pace, 24th nationally last season.
Two teams starting from scratch
Season openers rarely feature two rosters this unfamiliar to their own fans. Pepperdine went 9-23 last season, fired Ed Schilling in March and hired Virginia associate head coach Griff Aldrich. His first roster brings 13 newcomers, a mix of experienced transfers and international players, including Oren Sahar, who played professionally for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Players on this roster accounted for just 5.1% of last season's Pepperdine minutes. Last season's Waves numbers mostly describe people who are gone.
Cornell kept more, but not the parts that scored. The Big Red return 42.8% of last season's minutes and only one starter from a 15-13 team that reached the Ivy League Tournament for a fifth straight year. Cooper Noard (18.2 points a game, now at Samford) and Jake Fiegen (17.1, now at Villanova) both left. Cornell was picked fifth in the Ivy preseason poll.
Cornell's system versus Cornell's personnel
The question in Ithaca is whether the machine survives without its parts. Last season Cornell ranked 16th of 365 in offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) and played at the 24th-fastest pace in the country. Its shot diet was extreme: threes made up 52.6% of its field goal attempts, fifth-most nationally, and it hit 39.3% of them.
That offense also had the nation's second-highest assist rate, which points to a system that spreads the ball. Jacob Beccles, who made 27 starts and averaged 3.1 assists, now runs it. Kaspar Sepp takes a bigger frontcourt role after averaging 5.5 rebounds, and Gioacchino Panzini, a 67.2% shooter in reserve minutes, is a possible starter. Anthony Nimani made 13 of 25 threes off the bench last season.
The defense is the other half of the profile. Cornell allowed 115.0 points per 100 possessions, 324th nationally, and opponents shot 37.2% from three against it.
Pepperdine's imported shooting and size
Aldrich's roster looks built to punish exactly that weakness. Williamson, a Kent State transfer, made 81 threes last season, and his offensive rating of 140.8 points produced per 100 possessions marks an efficient, low-usage finisher. Evan Haywood adds volume from Butler, where he hit 35.9% from deep. David Mager, the lone notable returner, shot 39.2% from three in limited minutes.
Inside, Petar Majstorovic started all 32 games at Long Beach State and averaged 14.4 points. Northeastern transfer Youri Fritz shot 59.5% from the field but just 52.1% at the line, a factor if the game is close late. Pepperdine's minutes-weighted height of 77.9 inches tops Cornell's 76.6, and Cornell blocked shots at the 301st-best rate last season. The Waves should find room at the rim.
The unknown is whether a group this new can defend together. Last season's Pepperdine defense ranked 332nd in efficiency, though almost none of those players remain.
What the market is pricing
The market has leaned toward the rebuild. Pepperdine opened our feed as a 1.5-point favorite and now lays 3.5 on the road, with the moneyline at -175. That move trusts the transfer haul over Cornell's continuity and home floor.
The total sits at 164, up a half point from 163.5. Cornell's games ran fast and high-scoring last season: the Big Red scored 88.5 points a game and allowed 83.4, which ranked 355th of 365. Whether that holds with new shooters, and against an opponent playing its first game under a new coach, is the bet behind the number.
No injury or eligibility news turned up for either team heading into the opener.
What to watch - Cornell's three-point volume in the first ten minutes, and whether Beccles keeps the pace up. - Williamson's open looks against a Cornell perimeter defense that struggled last season. - Majstorovic and Fritz working inside against a Big Red front line that rarely blocks shots.
Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red line movement and odds
| Book | Waves ML | Red ML | Waves spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 | -3.5 (-105) | o165.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | -175 | +135 | -3.5 (-107) | o164.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | -166 | +140 | -2.5 (-118) | o165.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 | -2.5 (-120) | o165.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 | -3.5 (-115) | o165.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | -160 | +132 | -3.5 (-105) | o165.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +135 | -3.5 (-105) | o163.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 | -3 (-110) | o165.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pepperdine Waves: 51% of bets, 22% of the money; Cornell Big Red: 49% of bets, 78% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pepperdine Waves -2.5: 73% of bets, 72% of the money; Cornell Big Red +2.5: 27% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 163.5: 95% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 163.5: 6% of bets, 0% of the money.
Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red stats (this season)
| Stat | Pepperdine Waves | Cornell Big Red |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 105.0 (248th of 365) | 120.1 (42nd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 114.7 (282nd of 365) | 118.7 (336th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -9.6 (270th of 365) | 1.4 (151st of 365) |
Key players
- Jahari Williamson (Pepperdine): Shot 44.5% from three on 182 attempts at Kent State last season.
- Petar Majstorovic (Pepperdine): Started all 32 games at Long Beach State last season, averaging 14.4 points and 6.4 rebounds.
- Youri Fritz (Pepperdine): Shot 59.5% from the field at Northeastern last season but only 52.1% at the line.
- Jacob Beccles (Cornell): Made 27 starts last season and averaged 3.1 assists as Cornell's primary returning creator.
- Kaspar Sepp (Cornell): Averaged 5.5 rebounds in 18.8 minutes last season and steps into a larger role.
- Gioacchino Panzini (Cornell): Shot 67.2% from the field and 50% from three in reserve minutes last season.
Numbers that matter
| Pepperdine returning minutes | 5.1% | Nearly the whole roster is new under Griff Aldrich, so last season's Waves numbers say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Cornell 3-point attempt rate, last season | 52.6% | Fifth-most in the country, the core of an offense that ranked 16th in efficiency. |
| Cornell opponent 3-point %, last season | 37.2% | Ranked 357th of 365, a soft spot for Pepperdine's transfer shooters. |
| Spread movement | -3.5 | Pepperdine was first seen as a 1.5-point favorite and the market has pushed it further. |
| Total | 164 | Reflects Cornell's fast pace, 24th nationally last season. |
Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red: quick answers
Who is favored in Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red?
Pepperdine is favored by 3 points (Pepperdine -3).
What is the over/under for Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red?
The total is 164.5 points.
When is Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.
Where is Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red played?
Newman Arena, Ithaca, NY.
Has the line moved for Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red?
Yes: Pepperdine Waves opened -4 and is now -3.5, and the total moved from 163 to 165.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Pepperdine Waves vs Cornell Big Red?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pepperdine Waves: 51% of bets, 22% of the money; Cornell Big Red: 49% of bets, 78% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pepperdine Waves -2.5: 73% of bets, 72% of the money; Cornell Big Red +2.5: 27% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 163.5: 95% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 163.5: 6% of bets, 0% of the money.