Paine vs Jacksonville prediction: Jacksonville opens at Swisher against Paine with a defence to fix
The Dolphins' tune-up against a non-Division I visitor is a first look at whether a defence that ranked near the bottom of Division I last season has changed.
- Expect Jacksonville to control a home opener against a Paine program with no Division I data, with the margin depending on the Dolphins' defence.
- Watch Jacksonville's defence: it ranked 271st in defensive efficiency last season and sent opponents to the line too often.
- No spread or total posted yet; Jacksonville played at the 301st-fastest pace of 365 last season, which points to fewer possessions.
A season opener with a question
Jacksonville opens its 2026-27 home schedule on Monday, Nov. 2, at Swisher Gymnasium against Paine, a program we hold no Division I data for. The result matters less than what the Dolphins show. Jordan Mincy is entering his sixth season as head coach. He is coming off a 12-20 finish, and the defence is where that season went wrong.
Last season Jacksonville allowed 111.8 points per 100 possessions, 271st of 365. Opponents drew fouls freely. Their free throw rate, free throws attempted per field goal attempt, was 42.3%, which ranked 337th. Against this opponent, a cleaner defensive night would be the first sign of progress.
Strengths worth carrying forward
The glass was the bright spot last season. Jacksonville grabbed 33.6% of its own misses, 96th nationally, and 72.0% of opponents' misses, 81st. The offence was close to average, at 111.4 points per 100 possessions (161st).
The opponent-adjusted ratings were harsher. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency was -12.2, 298th. We don't know how much of that roster returns, so last season's numbers are only a rough guide.
Tempo and timing
The Dolphins played slowly last season, at 65.1 possessions per 40 minutes (301st). A grinding pace limits how many possessions Jacksonville has to build a margin.
The schedule moves quickly after this game. Jacksonville is also due at Florida, though the date for that game is unconfirmed. No availability news has surfaced for either team. The tip time for Monday's game is still to be announced.
Where the money is on Paine vs Jacksonville
On the Kalshi moneyline: Paine: 96% of bets, 24% of the money; Jacksonville: 4% of bets, 76% of the money.
Numbers that matter
| Defensive efficiency (last season) | 111.8 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 271st of 365, the main problem in a 12-20 season. |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent free throw rate (last season) | 42.3% | Ranked 337th, so fouling was a big part of the defensive trouble. |
| Pace (last season) | 65.1 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 301st, which signals a low-possession game. |
| Defensive rebound % (last season) | 72.0 | Ranked 81st, a strength that should travel into this season. |
Paine vs Jacksonville: quick answers
When is Paine vs Jacksonville?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Paine vs Jacksonville?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Paine: 96% of bets, 24% of the money; Jacksonville: 4% of bets, 76% of the money.