Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars prediction: Rob Wright III leads a rebuilt BYU into a shootout with Ohio State
Both programs lost most of last season's production, so the opener tips on which new backcourt finds its shot first and whether Jaxon Kohler is cleared to play.
| Spread | BYU -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 160.5 |
- Expect a fast, perimeter-heavy opener between two reshuffled rosters, with BYU's deeper shooting giving it a slight edge on a neutral floor in Utah.
- Rob Wright III against Ohio State's new guard group, led by Justin Pippen and a recently injured John Mobley Jr.
- BYU is a 3.5-point favorite with a 160.5 total, both unmoved since Nov. 1; BYU returns just 26.7% of last season's minutes.
Two programs starting over
Last season's final ratings make these teams look nearly identical. Both finished 12th of 365 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and BYU's net rating ranked 24th to Ohio State's 27th. Those numbers describe teams that no longer exist.
BYU brings back just 26.7% of last season's minutes after losing AJ Dybantsa, who scored 25.5 points a game, and Richie Saunders, whose season ended with a torn ACL in February. Ohio State returns 33.4% of its minutes and lost Bruce Thornton, the program's all-time leading scorer. Kevin Young and Jake Diebler are both entering their third seasons, and both rebuilt through the transfer portal. Treat last season's team numbers as background. The players who are actually back, or newly arrived, tell more.
This will be the eighth meeting between the programs and the first since 1997. Ohio State leads the series 4-3.
Wright and BYU's new shooters
Wright is BYU's anchor and its only returning starter. He averaged 18.1 points last season and shot 41.7% from three, and Young surrounded him with transfers who can space the floor. Collin Chandler made 41% of his threes at Kentucky, and Syracuse transfer Tyler Betsey hit 40.7%. Both started alongside Wright, five-star freshman Bruce Branch and Kohler in BYU's exhibition lineup.
That shooting could matter against an Ohio State perimeter group still finding its shape. The concern for BYU sits on the other end: last season's Cougars allowed 35.3% from three, 290th of 365. Only Wright, Khadim Mboup and Dawson Baker return from last season's roster, so whether that weakness carries over is an open question.
Kohler and the fight inside
Kohler is the swing piece. The Michigan State transfer averaged 12.5 points and 8.9 rebounds last season, and he made 38.9% of his threes as a stretch forward. His eligibility was still tied to ongoing NCAA cases as of Oct. 29, so BYU hasn't confirmed he can play.
If he does, BYU has a size edge: its minutes-weighted average height is 78.8 inches to Ohio State's 77.5. Last season Ohio State ranked 337th of 365 in block rate, and center Josh Ojianwuna's knee recovery has produced no recent update. The Buckeyes' frontcourt options include Kentucky transfer Andrija Jelavic, Amare Bynum and 7-foot-1 freshman Vuk Lazarevic. Bynum averaged 9.7 points last season on 50.2% shooting.
Ohio State's guard puzzle
Ohio State's offense now runs through three high-usage guards who have never played together in a regular-season game. Mobley is the proven shooter, averaging 15.7 points and making 41.1% of his threes last season. He twisted his ankle late in the Oct. 25 exhibition loss to Butler but is expected to be ready.
Pippen ran Cal's offense last season with 4.6 assists a game. He was a volume scorer more than an efficient one, posting a 44.7% effective field goal percentage (a shooting percentage that counts threes 1.5 times). Duquesne transfer Jimmie Williams scored 15.0 points a game there. Freshman Anthony Thompson is expected to play big minutes and projects to start at forward. Diebler has talent and depth. What he doesn't have yet is evidence of how the pieces fit.
What the number says
BYU is a 3.5-point favorite on a 160.5 total, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded it on Nov. 1. The moneyline sits at BYU -161 and Ohio State +135. BYU's AP ranking is the only clear separator in the market, and a 3.5-point spread does not split the teams much.
The total suggests the books expect offense to come first. Last season Ohio State played slowly, 286th of 365 in pace, while BYU sat near the middle of the country. With rosters this new, those tempo habits are a loose guide.
- Whether Kohler is in uniform.
- Mobley's movement on the ankle early.
- BYU's three-point defense against Ohio State's guards.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars line movement and odds
| Book | Buckeyes ML | Cougars ML | Buckeyes spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 | — | o160.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +130 | -162 | +3.5 (-109) | o160.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +140 | -166 | +3.5 (-115) | o160.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +145 | -170 | +3.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 | +3.5 (-115) | o160.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +142 | -172 | +3.5 (-105) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -170 | +3.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-120) |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 | +2.5 (-110) | o161.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes: 44% of bets, 25% of the money; BYU Cougars: 56% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: BYU Cougars -3.5: 73% of bets, 64% of the money; Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5: 27% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 160.5: 65% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 160.5: 35% of bets, 11% of the money.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars stats (this season)
| Stat | Ohio State Buckeyes | BYU Cougars |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 125.1 (12th of 365) | 125.1 (12th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 101.7 (51st of 365) | 101.2 (46th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 23.3 (27th of 365) | 23.9 (24th of 365) |
Key players
- Robert Wright III (BYU): Averaged 18.1 points and 4.6 assists last season while shooting 41.7% from three.
- Jaxon Kohler (BYU): Posted 12.5 points and 8.9 rebounds a game last season, but his eligibility was unresolved as of Oct. 29.
- Collin Chandler (BYU): Made 73 threes at 41% last season at Kentucky.
- John Mobley Jr. (Ohio State): Scored 15.7 points a game last season on 41.1% three-point shooting and is expected back from a twisted ankle.
- Justin Pippen (Ohio State): Averaged 14.2 points and 4.6 assists at Cal last season, though he shot 37.2% from the field.
- Jimmie Williams (Ohio State): Scored 15.0 points a game at Duquesne last season with a 54.3% effective field goal percentage.
Numbers that matter
| BYU returning minutes | 26.7% | BYU lost Dybantsa and Saunders, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 | BYU's line hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it on Nov. 1. |
| Total | 160.5 | The market expects a high-scoring opener between two offense-first rosters. |
| Ohio State block rate rank, last season | 337th | The Buckeyes protected the rim poorly last season, which matters if Kohler is cleared. |
| BYU opponent 3-point % rank, last season | 290th | BYU's perimeter defense was a weakness last season against an Ohio State team built around guards. |
Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars: quick answers
Who is favored in Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars?
BYU is favored by 3.5 points (BYU -3.5).
What is the over/under for Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars?
The total is 160.5 points.
When is Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Where is Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars played?
Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT.
Has the line moved for Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars?
Yes: Ohio State Buckeyes opened +2.5 and is now +3.5, and the total is still 160.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes: 44% of bets, 25% of the money; BYU Cougars: 56% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: BYU Cougars -3.5: 73% of bets, 64% of the money; Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5: 27% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 160.5: 65% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 160.5: 35% of bets, 11% of the money.