Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines prediction: Michigan opens its title defense with new faces and a 7-2 center
Both rosters have been rebuilt, so last season's numbers only go so far; the clearest edge is Michigan's size against an Oakland interior that struggled to protect the rim last season.
| Spread | Michigan -26.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157.5 |
- Michigan's guards and new frontcourt should control the paint early, with Oakland's rebuilt roster leaning on interior scorers who rarely shoot threes.
- Moustapha Thiam, the 7-foot-2 Cincinnati transfer, against Oakland forwards Belal El Shakery and Chris Fields Jr. around the rim.
- Michigan is favored by 26.5, down from 27.5 when our feed first saw it; last season's meeting ended 121-78.
Two programs starting over
Michigan won last season's national title and finished first of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Very little of that team is still here. Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks, Mike Boynton Jr. takes over in his first season, and four starters are gone: Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara and Nimari Burnett. Players on this roster account for 36.0% of last season's minutes.
Oakland has turned over even more. Only 9.9% of last season's minutes return, and Brody Robinson, who averaged 17.6 points, is now at Creighton. Oakland, under longtime coach Greg Kampe, was picked fourth in the Horizon League preseason poll. For both teams, last season's numbers describe programs, not these players. The better guide is the players who are back and the transfers who arrived.
Size against a soft middle
The most useful number from Oakland's last season is its interior defense. Opponents shot 56.5% on two-pointers, 345th nationally, and the Golden Grizzlies ranked 333rd in defensive rebound rate. Almost none of the defenders from that team remain, but the replacements don't bring an obvious rim protector either.
Michigan does. Thiam blocked 1.6 shots per game at Cincinnati, and J.P. Estrella shot 59.6% from the field at Tennessee. Last season Michigan ranked third in block rate. Mara was a big part of that, so Thiam inherits the job.
Oakland's newcomers attack the paint and don't shoot from outside. El Shakery used 28.6% of New Hampshire's possessions but made just 2 of 34 threes and shot 49.1% at the line. Fields was just as interior-bound at Campbell. If Thiam holds the lane, Oakland needs Brady Swartz and Nassim Mashhour to make shots. Mashhour shot 37.7% from three across his 10 games last season.
Michigan's backcourt carries the continuity
Michigan returns its guards, and they are the reason the Wolverines can absorb so many departures. Elliot Cadeau averaged 5.8 assists last season, and he and Trey McKenney were both named preseason All-Big Ten. McKenney shot 39.1% from three off the bench as a freshman, then scored 21 points in the Oct. 11 exhibition win over Eastern Michigan. Kenny Noland adds a scorer who averaged 17.1 points at Columbia and made 92.2% of his free throws.
Roddy Gayle Jr. was reported cleared to return on Oct. 22 after winning a preliminary injunction in September. He is projected to start, though Michigan hasn't confirmed a lineup. Freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. is out for the season with a torn ACL. Lincoln Cosby is still rehabbing his own ACL tear.
Several other statuses are unsettled. Freshman guard Joseph Hartman was reported on Oct. 23 to be facing several weeks out with a shoulder injury, while one listing has him questionable. Ricky Liburd (hip) was on a minutes restriction and Jalen Reed (Achilles) on a pitch count as of Oct. 11. On Oakland's side, RJ Taylor appears as questionable on one listing, with no injury given.
A big number and a fast game
Michigan is a 26.5-point favorite. The line opened at 27.5 in our feed and has moved toward Oakland. The total sits at 157, up slightly from 156.5.
Tempo supports a high total. Last season Oakland ranked 48th in pace and Michigan 58th, and both played faster than most of the country. Michigan also had last season's second-best opponent effective field goal percentage (which counts threes as 1.5 shots). A repeat of that defense would cap Oakland's side of the scoreboard.
One quirk to watch: Oakland ranked fifth in opponent free throw rate last season, so it rarely put teams on the line. Last November's opener between these programs ended 121-78, and Oakland is 1-9 in the last 10 meetings. A 26.5-point spread asks a Michigan team with plenty of new pieces to look like last season's from the start.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines line movement and odds
| Book | Grizzlies ML | Wolverines ML | Grizzlies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +27.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +27.5 (-107) | o158.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +3500 | -20000 | +26.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +26.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +3000 | -10000 | +27 (-110) | o158 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +6500 | -100000 | +27.5 (-115) | o157.5 (-114) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +27.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +27 (-110) | o158 (-110) |
Where the money is on Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oakland Golden Grizzlies: 80% of bets, 6% of the money; Michigan Wolverines: 21% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Michigan Wolverines -26.5: 55% of bets, 82% of the money; Oakland Golden Grizzlies +26.5: 45% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 87% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 156.5: 13% of bets, 2% of the money.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines stats (this season)
| Stat | Oakland Golden Grizzlies | Michigan Wolverines |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 115.3 (80th of 365) | 130.6 (3rd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 115.1 (288th of 365) | 88.8 (2nd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 0.2 (166th of 365) | 41.9 (1st of 365) |
Key players
- Trey McKenney (Michigan): Shot 39.1% from three last season and scored 21 in the Oct. 11 exhibition.
- Elliot Cadeau (Michigan): Started all 40 games last season and averaged 5.8 assists.
- Moustapha Thiam (Michigan): The 7-foot-2 transfer blocked 1.6 shots per game at Cincinnati last season.
- Kenny Noland (Michigan): Averaged 17.1 points and shot 92.2% at the line for Columbia last season.
- Belal El Shakery (Oakland): Averaged 11.4 points and 8.2 rebounds at New Hampshire last season, but shot 49.1% at the line.
- Chris Fields Jr. (Oakland): Averaged 9.7 points and 6.9 rebounds in 18.6 minutes at Campbell last season.
- Brady Swartz (Oakland): Made 29 threes at Western Michigan last season with an offensive rating of 118.8.
- Nassim Mashhour (Oakland): A returner who shot 37.7% from three in 10 starts last season.
Numbers that matter
| Oakland returning minutes | 9.9% | Nearly the whole rotation is new, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland opponent 2-point %, last season | 56.5% | Ranked 345th, the weak spot Michigan's new frontcourt will test. |
| Michigan block rate rank, last season | 3rd | Thiam now has to replace the rim protection that left with Aday Mara. |
| Spread | -26.5 | Moved toward Oakland from -27.5 when our feed first recorded the game. |
| Total | 157.0 | Both teams ranked in the top 60 for pace last season. |
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines: quick answers
Who is favored in Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines?
Michigan is favored by 26.5 points (Michigan -26.5).
What is the over/under for Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines?
The total is 157.5 points.
When is Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.
Where is Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines played?
Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI.
Has the line moved for Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines?
Yes: Oakland Golden Grizzlies opened +29 and is now +27.5, and the total moved from 156.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oakland Golden Grizzlies: 80% of bets, 6% of the money; Michigan Wolverines: 21% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Michigan Wolverines -26.5: 55% of bets, 82% of the money; Oakland Golden Grizzlies +26.5: 45% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 87% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 156.5: 13% of bets, 2% of the money.