North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Minnesota Golden Gophers prediction: North Dakota brings a nearly new roster into Minnesota's Barn

A roster rebuilt almost from scratch

North Dakota opens its season tonight at Williams Arena with almost none of the team that reached last season's Summit League tournament final. The players on this roster logged 20.3% of last season's minutes and scored 13.2% of its points. Only three players are back: Zach Kraft, Josh Jones and Karson Ouse.

The departures took the engine with them. Greyson Uelmen averaged 17.1 points last season and has moved on to Northern Iowa, and Eli King started every game before leaving as well. Paul Sather fills the gaps with transfers from Austin Peay, Le Moyne and several smaller programs, four freshmen and Andrija Radojevic, a frontcourt newcomer who played professionally in his native Serbia. North Dakota was picked sixth in the Summit League preseason poll.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. The Fighting Hawks forced turnovers on 20.6% of opponent possessions, 26th in the country. But that pressure came largely from players who are gone, King's 2.1 steals a game among them, so don't count on it carrying over.

Minnesota's core is still here

Niko Medved's second Minnesota team looks different too. It has four returners and nine new additions. The difference is that the returners carried the offense. The roster brings back 60.5% of last season's minutes, and Cade Tyson, the 19.6-point scorer, is the big loss.

Jaylen Crocker-Johnson, Isaac Asuma and Durkin were the high-scoring starters last season, although Minnesota hasn't confirmed a starting lineup. Kyan Evans, a senior transfer from North Carolina, is in line to debut tonight after late-October coverage had him set to play. He left an exhibition at Creighton with a hip issue, so watch his minutes. Michigan transfer Winters Grady played four scoreless minutes in an exhibition against Omaha while dealing with a lower-leg problem.

Minnesota beat North Dakota 82-62 in an exhibition last October. Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put the Gophers 77th in net efficiency and North Dakota 278th.

Threes against a soft perimeter

Minnesota's offense shares the ball and lets it fly. Last season the Gophers assisted on 71.0% of their made baskets, the highest rate in Division I, and ranked 30th in how often they shot threes. Durkin is the trigger: he made 39.2% of his threes last season on 204 attempts.

That style lines up with North Dakota's biggest weakness last season. The Fighting Hawks ranked 349th in opponent effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 times a two. They also ranked 344th in opponent free throw rate, which measures how often opponents get to the line. Minnesota's defense went the other way and ranked 25th at keeping opponents off the line. A new North Dakota roster could fix those holes, but it is the clearest matchup the numbers point to.

A big spread and a slow pace

The market has barely moved. Minnesota sits at -26 after our feed first saw -26.5, and the total ticked up from 146.5 to 147.

The tension is tempo. Minnesota played at 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 361st of 365. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances to build a margin, and they make a total of 147 harder to reach. North Dakota played at a faster 68.9, but that was a different roster.

Kraft is the returning North Dakota player most likely to keep the score respectable. He shot 39.2% from three last season with an offensive rating of 126.7, the most efficient returner on either side. If Kraft and Austin Peay transfer Tyler Wagner hit early threes, the cover gets harder. If Minnesota controls the pace, the total becomes the harder bet.