NJIT Highlanders vs Dayton Flyers prediction: Rebuilt Dayton opens against NJIT as a 22.5-point favorite

A roster built in one offseason

Dayton has won 21 straight season openers, and tonight's 7 p.m. tip at UD Arena is the first chance for a team that barely resembles last season's to make it 22. Players on this roster accounted for just 24.5% of the Flyers' minutes from a season that ended 25-12. Javon Bennett left for Gonzaga and De'Shayne Montgomery for Louisville. Anthony Grant, in his ninth season, brought in nine newcomers: six transfers and three freshmen.

The core that remains is a good one. Amaël L'Etang, a preseason first-team All-Atlantic 10 pick, averaged 11.9 points last season and hit 36.1% of his threes. Jaiun Simon is back too. Around them, Grant Randall arrives from Quinnipiac with an offensive rating of 124.9 (points produced per 100 possessions), and Landen Joseph shot 41.3% from three at Marshall.

The preseason went 2-1, with a loss to Xavier and wins over Notre Dame and Morehead State. The 88-56 finale against Morehead State is the clearest look at the rotation: no Flyer played more than 20 minutes. Freshman Aiden Derkack, who started the Xavier exhibition, scored 13 points in the first half alone.

NJIT's shooting problem

NJIT finished 16-17 last season and placed third in the America East. Its offense was the weak spot. Its effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times) of 46.7% ranked 351st of 365. It made just 30.3% from three. By adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), the Highlanders ranked 346th.

David Bolden, the America East Rookie of the Year, is the reason for some optimism. He averaged 11.8 points and 1.9 steals, but his effective field goal percentage was 41.9% on a usage rate of 24.9%. The Highlanders return only 37.8% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide here. Quentin Duncan's 37.6% from three is the best returning shooting mark, and VMI transfer Mario Tatum Jr. adds a scorer. NJIT was picked fourth in the conference, its best preseason spot since joining the league in 2020.

One opening for NJIT: last season's Dayton defense let opponents hit 35.4% from three, which ranked 294th. Even so, the Flyers ranked 29th in adjusted defense.

Turnovers and trips to the line

Last season's Flyers won the possession battle with their hands. They forced turnovers on 21.0% of opponent possessions, 17th in the country. NJIT's ball security sat in the middle of the pack, giving it away on 17.0% of possessions.

Dayton also lived at the free-throw line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 46.2% ranked second nationally. NJIT's defense sent opponents to the line often, ranking 261st in opponent free throw rate. Most of the players who drew those whistles are gone, so it's open to question whether this group attacks the same way. If it does, the line can stretch a lead even on nights when the shots aren't falling.

Where the number sits

The market has trimmed Dayton slightly. The spread opened in our feed at -23.5 and now sits at -22.5, moving toward NJIT. The total slipped from 146.5 to 145. Preseason ratings show the gap between the teams, with Dayton 63rd and NJIT 347th.

Pace offers no clear lean. Both teams played near the national middle last season, with NJIT at 68 possessions per 40 minutes. A spread this size asks a new Dayton rotation to keep pressing late, and the Morehead State minutes split suggests Grant will keep spreading the minutes around.

Jalen Haynes, a transfer forward who missed all of last season with a knee injury, had not returned to the court as of Sep. 30, and there has been no public update since. Dayton hasn't said whether he plays.