Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries prediction: Kehoe gone, Navy brings a guard-heavy roster into GW's taller rebuild
George Washington returns almost nobody, but its transfer class gives it a size edge over a Navy team that lost its interior anchor, and the market prices that gap at 16.5 points.
| Spread | George Washington -19 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- GW's transfer-built roster should control the paint while Navy leans on guard shooting and a deliberate tempo to keep the margin manageable.
- Navy's returning shooters, led by Jinwoo Kim, against a George Washington team that is more than four inches taller on a minutes-weighted basis.
- GW is favored by 18.5, up from 16 when our feed first saw it. Navy played at the 355th-fastest pace last season.
Navy lost its middle
George Washington opens the fifth season of Chris Caputo's tenure with almost nobody from last year's rotation. Navy has more continuity, but it lost the heart of a 26-8 team, and the market has decided the gap between these rosters is wide: GW by 18.5 tonight at the Smith Center.
The clearest reason is size. Navy's roster averages 74.1 inches weighted by minutes, against 78.6 for George Washington. The Midshipmen lost center Aidan Kehoe, who averaged 15.2 points and 10.9 rebounds last season while making 73.1% of his shots. All four of Navy's top returners are guards, and Navy lost five of its top six scorers.
GW's newcomers include Boston College transfer Aidan Shaw, who grabbed 6.2 rebounds and blocked 1.2 shots a game there last season. If GW wins the glass and the rim, Navy has to make a lot of jumpers to stay close.
Who is actually back
GW returns just 12.2% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. Navy returns 40.6%, built around senior guard Jinwoo Kim, who made 40.6% of his threes last season.
GW's one significant returner carries a question mark. Jean Aranguren, a preseason All-A-10 third-team pick, suffered a head injury in the exhibition against Georgetown, and no update on his status had surfaced since that mid-October report. GW lost that exhibition 76-68 to Georgetown, with Georgetown scoring 76.
The transfers vary in quality. Andrew Phillips scored 13.9 points a game at Lafayette, and Felix Kossaras posted a 60.8% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at Colorado. Pittsburgh transfer Omari Witherspoon is the bigger question: his offensive rating, an estimate of points produced per 100 possessions, was 89 last season.
Read Navy's 26-8 carefully
Navy's raw numbers last season were excellent, with net efficiency ranked 23rd nationally. Adjust for a Patriot League schedule and the picture changes: Navy finished 153rd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), with GW 79th.
The Midshipmen's defense held opponents to 29.7% from three last season, seventh in the country. With most of that roster gone, it is unclear how much of that carries over. Navy was picked fifth in the Patriot League; GW was picked fifth in the A-10.
Tempo and the total
Navy played at the 355th-fastest pace of 365 teams last season, while GW sat at 176th. A slow Navy can shorten the game and cut into the number of possessions GW gets to build a lead.
GW also lived behind the arc last season, with a 3-point attempt rate ranked 35th. That was a different roster, but Caputo's system is the same. The total has risen to 149.5 from 148, and the spread has moved toward GW, from -16 to -18.5.
Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries line movement and odds
| Book | Midshipmen ML | Revolutionaries ML | Midshipmen spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1250 | -3000 | +19.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +1400 | -10000 | +19.5 (-117) | o150.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +1300 | -2800 | +18.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +1500 | -5000 | +19.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1800 | -4000 | +18.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1400 | -5000 | +19.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +1350 | -3500 | +19 (-110) | o149 (-110) |
Where the money is on Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries
On the Kalshi moneyline: Navy Midshipmen: 70% of bets, 29% of the money; GW Revolutionaries: 30% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: GW Revolutionaries -19.5: 69% of bets, 91% of the money; Navy Midshipmen +19.5: 31% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 97% of bets, 95% of the money; Under 149.5: 3% of bets, 5% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Navy Midshipmen (1 wallet, $3). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $3 on Navy Midshipmen.
Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries stats (this season)
| Stat | Navy Midshipmen | GW Revolutionaries |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 107.0 (207th of 365) | 117.2 (68th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 105.7 (110th of 365) | 106.1 (117th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 1.3 (153rd of 365) | 11.1 (79th of 365) |
Key players
- Jinwoo Kim (Navy): Navy's returning leader shot 40.6% from three last season while averaging 9.9 points.
- Cam Cole (Navy): Came off the bench last season but posted a 55.7% effective field goal percentage.
- Jordan Pennick (Navy): Started 20 games last season but shot just 31.2% from three.
- Jean Aranguren (George Washington): GW's top returner averaged 8.2 points and 3.4 assists last season; his status after a head injury is unclear.
- Andrew Phillips (George Washington): Averaged 13.9 points in 32 starts at Lafayette last season.
- Aidan Shaw (George Washington): Gives GW interior help after averaging 6.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks at Boston College last season.
Numbers that matter
| GW spread | -16.5 | Up from -16 when our feed first recorded the game. |
|---|---|---|
| Height, minutes-weighted | 78.6 | GW's average height in inches, against 74.1 for Navy. |
| GW returning minutes | 12.2% | Almost the whole rotation is new, so last season's GW numbers are a weak guide. |
| Navy adjusted net rank, last season | 153rd | Far below Navy's raw net efficiency rank of 23rd once schedule is accounted for. |
| Navy pace rank, last season | 355th | One of the slowest teams in the country, which can keep a big favorite's margin in check. |
Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries: quick answers
Who is favored in Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries?
George Washington is favored by 19 points (George Washington -19).
What is the over/under for Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries played?
Charles E. Smith Center, Washington, DC.
Has the line moved for Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries?
Yes: Navy Midshipmen opened +16 and is now +19.5, and the total moved from 148 to 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Navy Midshipmen: 70% of bets, 29% of the money; GW Revolutionaries: 30% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: GW Revolutionaries -19.5: 69% of bets, 91% of the money; Navy Midshipmen +19.5: 31% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 97% of bets, 95% of the money; Under 149.5: 3% of bets, 5% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Navy Midshipmen vs GW Revolutionaries?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Navy Midshipmen (1 wallet, $3). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $3 on Navy Midshipmen. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.