Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers vs Xavier Musketeers prediction: Xavier unveils its rebuilt roster against Mount St. Mary's turnover problem

A new Xavier, almost from scratch

Xavier's season opener is really an introduction. Only 13.1% of last season's minutes return, and Jovan Milicevic is the lone returner who played a real role. Pitino added seven transfers and four freshmen, and tonight at Cintas Center is the first time any of it counts.

That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. Xavier went 15-18 in 2025-26 and finished 293rd nationally in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). That defense belonged to a different roster. The arrivals carry stronger résumés. Chance Westry, the new point guard from UAB, scored 15.5 points per game with an offensive rating of 121.1 last season. Ruben Dominguez made 86 threes at Texas A&M. Milicevic shot 42.9% from deep, which gives Xavier a floor-spacing core it can lean on while the rest settles in.

The early availability news is mixed. Freshman big Asher Elson has a foot injury and won't play. "He won't be available for Monday, but maybe game two, more likely game three," Pitino said on Oct. 28. Freshman guard Kalek House was cleared for the opener as of that date. Sophomore forward Gabriel Pozzato appeared in the Oct. 7 exhibition against Dayton after a knee injury, but Xavier hasn't confirmed a full clearance.

Mount's giveaway habit

The clearest weakness on the Mount St. Mary's side last season was the ball. The Mountaineers turned it over on 22.5% of possessions, 362nd of 365 Division I teams. That was the main reason their offense ranked 343rd in efficiency despite a respectable shot profile.

The guards who handled most of that load are gone. Xavier Lipscomb started all 31 games he played, and Arlandus Keyes led the team at 12.3 points per game. Mount returns just 32.5% of its minutes, so the giveaways could get better or worse with a new group. The newcomers don't inspire confidence yet. Wilguens Junior Exacte posted a 23.9% usage rate at Drake while shooting 22.2% from three.

Xavier forced turnovers at the 279th-highest rate of 365 teams last season, but that was with last year's players. Tru Washington, projected to start, averaged 1.8 steals per game at Miami. If Mount's handlers are rattled early in an arena that is new to most of them, this spread starts to look reachable.

Size in the paint

Xavier's roster is noticeably bigger, at 79.5 inches of average height weighted by minutes against Mount's 76.2. Nikos Chitikoudis averaged 7.7 rebounds at Robert Morris, and Rolyns Aligbe added 7.4 at Southern Illinois. That matters because Xavier was a poor offensive rebounding team last season, 330th in offensive rebound rate, and the new frontcourt should change that.

Mount's defense was its strength last season. Opponents shot just 45.4% inside the arc, 12th nationally. But Luke McEldon, who made 64.5% of his shots, left for Northwestern. The Mount roster lists a 7-foot freshman, Yakhya Diop, though starters haven't been announced. Abdou Khadre Kébé, picked Preseason First Team All-Metro, will have to carry the frontcourt at both ends. He scored 20 in the 66-59 exhibition win over Navy on Oct. 28.

Where the number sits

Xavier is a 26.25-point favorite, and that number has not moved since Nov. 1. The total has risen a point to 156.5. Xavier played at the 44th-fastest pace in the country last season. Mount sat 193rd, so Xavier's pace may again set the tempo.

Mount was picked eighth in the Metro preseason coaches poll, and its weakest skills point toward a lopsided score. The Mountaineers made just 67.1% of their free throws last season, 344th nationally, so they can't easily chip away at a deficit from the line.