Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm prediction: St. John's unveils a rebuilt, legally tangled roster against Monmouth
The No. 13 Red Storm open with almost none of last season's minutes back, so a 27.5-point spread is really a bet on how fast Pitino's newcomers click.
| Spread | St. John's -28 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 155 |
- St. John's newcomers should overwhelm a Monmouth roster that is also starting over; the real question is how quickly the margin builds.
- Monmouth's ball pressure against a St. John's backcourt of Keyshawn Hall, Tounde Yessoufou and Quinn Ellis playing together for real.
- St. John's is -27.5, up from -27 when our feed first saw it, with just 17.8% of last season's minutes back.
Pitino's portal rebuild debuts
No. 13 St. John's opens Monday night with a ranking, a huge spread and a roster that is mostly new to Carnesecca Arena. Monmouth gets the first look at what Rick Pitino assembled, and at how much of it holds up in court.
Players on this season's roster accounted for just 17.8% of St. John's minutes last season, when the Red Storm went 30-7 and finished 15th nationally in adjusted net efficiency (27.7 points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Zuby Ejiofor, who averaged 16.3 points, is gone, along with Bryce Hopkins and Oziyah Sellers.
The replacements arrive with résumés. Keyshawn Hall averaged 19.3 points at Auburn last season. Tounde Yessoufou scored 17.8 a game at Baylor. Quinn Ellis, a guard from Europe, was granted one year of eligibility. Ian Jackson and Ruben Prey are the key holdovers. Forecasters bought in: Torvik projects St. John's 11th nationally, and the Big East media poll slots the Red Storm second behind UConn.
The legal fine print
Several of those newcomers are playing on court orders. Hall is eligible under a temporary restraining order that holds until a judge rules on a preliminary injunction; that was his status as of mid-October. Babacar Sane, voted a team captain after a strong debut in the Drexel exhibition, is also eligible under a restraining order and can play Monday. His final hearing is set for Nov. 9.
Reed Bailey, the Indiana transfer, had not received an eligibility decision as of mid-October. Pitino has since said he expects Sane to be fine and that "we'll have a full team." One loss is certain: Donnie Freeman, who scored 16.5 a game at Syracuse last season, will miss the year after Achilles surgery.
Monmouth starts over too
King Rice's Hawks went 19-15 last season, but players on this roster logged only 30.5% of those minutes. Jason Rivera-Torres, who averaged 15.8 points, left for High Point, and sharpshooter Justin Ray went to Wake Forest.
Stefanos Spartalis, who scored 10.7 a game last season, is the most productive holdover. Jack Collins is back to run the offense, though he shot just 28.9% from three. Jakai Sanders arrives from Le Moyne after matching Spartalis' scoring average, and Madison Durr returns as a graduate student after a legal ruling cleared him. The wild card is Lureon Walker, who averaged 16.6 points in five games at North Carolina A&T last season. With that many new parts, last season's team profile is a loose guide at best.
Turnovers are Monmouth's lever
If Monmouth has a path to keeping this respectable, it runs through live-ball steals. Last season the Hawks forced turnovers on 20.6% of opponent possessions, 25th in the country. St. John's protected the ball well, giving it away on 14.6% of trips, 41st nationally.
Those numbers describe different rosters, but the clash matters early. A backcourt sharing the floor in a regular-season game for the first time is exactly the group pressure can rattle. If Hall and Ellis handle it cleanly, Monmouth has few other ways to manufacture extra shots.
The number and the pace
St. John's is favored by 27.5, up from -27 when our feed first recorded the line, and the total sits at 153 after opening at 152.5 in our feed. Both moves are small, but both lean toward a lopsided, high-scoring night.
Tempo is the tension in that total. Last season Monmouth played at one of the slowest paces in Division I, 298th in possessions per game, while St. John's ranked 78th. Pitino's team wants to run off turnovers. If the Hawks slow it down and make the Red Storm grind through half-court sets, a margin this large gets harder to reach. If the newcomers turn steals into layups, it gets easier.
Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm line movement and odds
| Book | Hawks ML | Storm ML | Hawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | — | o154.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +27.5 (-109) | o155.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +3500 | -20000 | +27.5 (-102) | o154.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +4000 | -12000 | +28 (-110) | o155 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +5500 | -50000 | +27.5 (-104) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +27.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | — | — | +28 (-110) | o155 (-110) |
Where the money is on Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm
On the Kalshi moneyline: Monmouth Hawks: 72% of bets, 1% of the money; St. John's Red Storm: 29% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. John's Red Storm -27.5: 86% of bets, 58% of the money; Monmouth Hawks +27.5: 14% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 88% of bets, 69% of the money; Under 154.5: 12% of bets, 31% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: St. John's Red Storm (1 wallet, $6). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $6 on St. John's Red Storm.
Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm stats (this season)
| Stat | Monmouth Hawks | St. John's Red Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 105.9 (227th of 365) | 121.6 (37th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 106.5 (122nd of 365) | 94.0 (12th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -0.6 (172nd of 365) | 27.7 (15th of 365) |
Key players
- Keyshawn Hall (St. John's): Averaged 19.3 points with a 124.6 offensive rating at Auburn last season, and plays under a temporary restraining order.
- Tounde Yessoufou (St. John's): Scored 17.8 points and averaged 2.0 steals per game at Baylor last season.
- Ian Jackson (St. John's): Averaged 9.4 points and shot 90% at the line last season in 18.2 minutes a night.
- Ruben Prey (St. John's): Made 62.5% of his threes on limited attempts last season.
- Stefanos Spartalis (Monmouth): Scored 10.7 points per game last season with a 25.2% usage rate, the heaviest load among returners.
- Jack Collins (Monmouth): Played 34.9 minutes and dished 4.3 assists per game last season but shot 28.9% from three.
- Jakai Sanders (Monmouth): Averaged 10.7 points and 4.2 assists at Le Moyne last season.
- Madison Durr (Monmouth): Scored 10.3 points per game off the bench at UNC Wilmington last season.
Numbers that matter
| Spread | -27.5 | St. John's has moved up from -27 since our feed first saw the line. |
|---|---|---|
| St. John's returning minutes | 17.8% | Last season's 30-7 profile says little about this nearly all-new roster. |
| Monmouth forced turnover rate (last season) | 20.6% | Ranked 25th nationally, the Hawks' best tool against a new St. John's backcourt. |
| Monmouth returning minutes | 30.5% | The Hawks lost their top two scorers from a 19-15 team. |
| Total | 153 | Nudged up from 152.5 despite Monmouth's slow pace last season. |
Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm: quick answers
Who is favored in Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm?
St. John's is favored by 28 points (St. John's -28).
What is the over/under for Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm?
The total is 155 points.
When is Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET.
Where is Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm played?
Carnesecca Arena, Queens, NY.
Has the line moved for Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm?
No: Monmouth Hawks has stayed at +27.5, and the total moved from 152.5 to 154.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Monmouth Hawks: 72% of bets, 1% of the money; St. John's Red Storm: 29% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. John's Red Storm -27.5: 86% of bets, 58% of the money; Monmouth Hawks +27.5: 14% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 88% of bets, 69% of the money; Under 154.5: 12% of bets, 31% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: St. John's Red Storm (1 wallet, $6). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $6 on St. John's Red Storm. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.