Mercyhurst Lakers vs Marquette Golden Eagles prediction: Marquette's portal reload opens against a Mercyhurst roster starting over

Smart finally shops the portal

For most of his tenure, Shaka Smart built Marquette from high school recruits and patience. Outside his first year, he had never added a player through the transfer portal. After a 12-20 season, that changed, and tonight's opener at Fiserv Forum is the first regular-season look at the result.

The core stays intact. Marquette returns 60.2% of last season's minutes, led by Nigel James Jr., Royce Parham and Adrien Stevens. James carried the offense last season at 16.4 points and 4.8 assists per game. Parham was named to the preseason All-Big East second team.

The additions change the ceiling. Nolan Minessale scored 19.8 points per game at St. Thomas-Minnesota with an offensive rating of 120.2. Sananda Fru made 75.3% of his shots at Louisville and landed on the preseason All-Big East third team. Colin Porter, a 32-game starter at Liberty, adds a steady guard who shot 91.1% at the line. One preview projects James, Stevens, Minessale, Parham and Fru as the starting five, though Marquette hasn't announced a lineup.

Mercyhurst starts nearly from scratch

Mercyhurst went 17-17 last season, but little of that team is left. The Lakers lost leading scorer Bernie Blunt III, who averaged 17.6 points, and rim protector Qadir Martin, who blocked 2.4 shots a game before leaving for Fairfield. Last season's final adjusted net rating, which measures scoring margin per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, ranked 280th of 365, and that was with those players.

Guard Jake Lemelman is the lone proven returner. He started all 34 games last season and shot 40% from three. Le Moyne transfer Tennessee Rainwater posted a 63.9% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) in a bench role. Gary Manchel, a long-tenured coach, has to sort out the rest quickly: Notre Dame comes on Nov. 5. Mercyhurst is also ineligible for the NCAA Tournament or NIT until the 2027-28 season.

Ball security is the real test

The cleanest question for Marquette is whether it can take care of the ball. The Golden Eagles committed 24 turnovers in their exhibition against Michigan State, a number that would turn a blowout into a grind.

Mercyhurst's defense was its calling card last season. The Lakers forced turnovers on 19.3% of opponent possessions, 63rd nationally, though most of the players who generated that pressure are gone. Marquette is built to win the same battle the other way: its steal rate ranked 11th in the country last season, and James averaged 2.0 steals a game.

Glass, fouls and the line

Marquette's biggest flaw last season was defensive rebounding. It grabbed just 65.3% of opponent misses, 343rd nationally. Fru, who averaged 6.1 rebounds in 22 minutes at Louisville, is part of the fix. Mercyhurst may not be the team to expose it, since the Lakers ranked 323rd in offensive rebound rate last season.

The foul line tilts toward the home side. Last season Mercyhurst drew free throws at the third-lowest rate in Division I, 363rd of 365, while sending opponents to the line often enough to rank 328th. Marquette has to cash in, and its 67.5% free-throw shooting ranked 336th last season.

What the number says

Marquette is favored by 31, up from -30.5 when our feed first recorded the line, and the total has dropped from 149 to 147.5. The style clash explains the total. Mercyhurst played at 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 315th nationally, while Marquette ran at 69.9, 76th. With a new roster on each side, last season's tempo is a loose guide.

Marquette will likely be without forward Caedin Hamilton, who tore his calf in early October and was given an 8-to-12-week timeline as of Oct. 22. The best case in that report had him debuting Nov. 22 against Chicago State. This is also the first meeting between the programs.