Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones prediction: Tamin Lipsey and Iowa State's thieves test a brand-new Memphis backcourt
Memphis returns barely a tenth of last season's minutes, and its debut comes against a defense that forced turnovers better than almost anyone in the country.
| Spread | Iowa State -15.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157.5 |
- Iowa State's pressure should set the terms early. Memphis needs its veteran transfers to protect the ball and win second chances to stay in range.
- Lipsey and Jaquan Johnson against Northwestern transfer Jayden Reid, who averaged 5.0 assists last season, in his first game running Memphis.
- Iowa State is favored by 14.5, up from 13.5 when our feed first saw it. The total sits at 155.5.
Ball security is the opener's question
Last season Iowa State forced turnovers on 22.7% of opponent possessions, 5th of 365 in Division I. Memphis gave the ball away on 19.1% of its own trips, which ranked 323rd. That figure describes a team that no longer exists. Memphis returns 11.2% of last season's minutes, and the guards who handled the ball, Dug McDaniel among them, are gone.
The new man in charge is Jayden Reid, the point guard from Northwestern, who averaged 5.0 assists there last season. Junior Julius Thedford is Memphis's only returning starter. Their first look at Division I pressure in new colors comes against Tamin Lipsey, who averaged 2.3 steals last season, is cleared and led Iowa State in minutes in its Northwestern exhibition. T.J. Otzelberger looks comfortable pairing him with Bradley transfer Jaquan Johnson, who averaged 2.5 steals there. If Memphis loses the possession battle in the first 10 minutes, a spread this size gets away quickly.
Iowa State replaces its shooter
The Cyclones lost the best shooter in their rotation. Milan Momcilovic left for Kentucky after making 48.4% of his threes, and Joshua Jefferson is also gone. Iowa State made 38.2% from deep as a team last season, 17th nationally, and much of that shooting left with them.
Ryan Prather Jr. is the answer Iowa State is counting on. He shot 37.5% from three at Robert Morris, and a hip issue reported in September does not appear to be slowing him: he scored 25 points and made 6-of-7 threes in an exhibition. Tre Singleton, a Northwestern transfer, is expected to start alongside Lipsey. Killyan Toure remains out until at least January after shoulder surgery, which thins the backcourt depth Otzelberger usually leans on.
Memphis builds around size and Popović
Penny Hardaway, in his ninth season, rebuilt through the portal with scorers and bodies. Tylik Weeks averaged 19.7 points at Southern Miss but made just 22.2% of his threes, so his damage comes inside the arc and at the line. Corneilous Williams pulled down 9.3 rebounds a game at North Alabama. That matters because last season's Memphis defensive rebounding rate ranked 357th, a weakness the new frontcourt has to fix.
The swing piece is center Nemanja Popović. The NCAA ruled him eligible but with a six-game withholding period that starts with this opener. Memphis appealed on Oct. 26 and had heard nothing back as of Oct. 30, so his status for tonight is unsettled. He played in all three preseason games and scored 16 points in the loss at Arkansas. Without him, Memphis has less size to punish an Iowa State defense whose block rate ranked 250th last season.
Reading the 14.5
The market has moved toward Iowa State, from -13.5 to -14.5 across 10 books, while the total has held at 155.5. Last season's final adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents, put Iowa State 7th and Memphis 126th. Both rosters have changed so much that those ratings are a weak guide, but the gap is wide.
Two details bear on the number. Iowa State shot 67.5% from the line last season, 337th, and Lipsey shot 65.6%. Memphis's defense sent opponents to the stripe constantly, with an opponent free throw rate that ranked 338th. A double-digit Cyclones lead late, with misses at the line, is how a big favorite fails to cover. The game is on a neutral floor at the Sanford Pentagon, the programs' second meeting after Iowa State won 78-59 in 2021.
Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Cyclones ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +850 | -1600 | +15.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +650 | -1250 | +15.5 (-113) | o157.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +900 | -1600 | +15.5 (-112) | o157.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +900 | -1800 | +15.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +900 | -1500 | +15.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +980 | -2000 | +14.5 (-102) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +750 | -1300 | +15.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +800 | -1400 | +15.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones
On the Kalshi moneyline: Memphis Tigers: 68% of bets, 13% of the money; Iowa State Cyclones: 32% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Iowa State Cyclones -15.5: 46% of bets, 63% of the money; Memphis Tigers +15.5: 54% of bets, 37% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 75% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 157.5: 25% of bets, 1% of the money.
Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones stats (this season)
| Stat | Memphis Tigers | Iowa State Cyclones |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 108.3 (184th of 365) | 125.0 (14th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 104.4 (86th of 365) | 91.4 (7th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 3.9 (126th of 365) | 33.6 (7th of 365) |
Key players
- Tamin Lipsey (Iowa State): Averaged 2.3 steals and 5.1 assists last season and anchors the turnover-forcing defense.
- Ryan Prather Jr. (Iowa State): Shot 37.5% from three at Robert Morris and made 6-of-7 threes in a 25-point exhibition.
- Jaquan Johnson (Iowa State): Scored 16.9 points and averaged 2.5 steals per game at Bradley last season.
- Blake Buchanan (Iowa State): Shot 63.6% from the field last season but just 49.4% at the free throw line.
- Jayden Reid (Memphis): Averaged 5.0 assists at Northwestern last season and now runs a brand-new offense.
- Tylik Weeks (Memphis): Scored 19.7 points per game at Southern Miss and shot 82.3% from the line.
- Corneilous Williams (Memphis): Averaged 9.3 rebounds at North Alabama, the board work Memphis needs to fix its glass.
- Julius Thedford (Memphis): Posted a 120 offensive rating in 20.4 minutes per game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Iowa State forced turnover rate, last season | 22.7% | Ranked 5th in Division I and sets up the opener's central test for Memphis's new guards. |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis returning minutes | 11.2% | So little of last season's roster remains that its 13-19 numbers say little about this team. |
| Spread | -14.5 | Iowa State's line has moved a point in its favor since our feed first recorded it. |
| Iowa State free throw %, last season | 67.5% | Ranked 337th, a late-game risk against a Memphis defense that fouled often. |
Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones: quick answers
Who is favored in Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones?
Iowa State is favored by 15.5 points (Iowa State -15.5).
What is the over/under for Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones?
The total is 157.5 points.
When is Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones played?
Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, SD.
Has the line moved for Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones?
Yes: Memphis Tigers opened +13.5 and is now +15.5, and the total moved from 154.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Memphis Tigers: 68% of bets, 13% of the money; Iowa State Cyclones: 32% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Iowa State Cyclones -15.5: 46% of bets, 63% of the money; Memphis Tigers +15.5: 54% of bets, 37% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 75% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 157.5: 25% of bets, 1% of the money.