Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans prediction: Troy unveils an almost entirely new roster against Frank Martin's UMass

Troy starts from scratch

Troy has won the past two Sun Belt tournaments and is chasing a third straight, something no league program has done since Western Kentucky from 2001-03. The team trying to do it barely resembles the one that cut down the nets. Scott Cross left for Georgia Tech, Adam Howard took over, and four of his assistants are new to the program.

The roster turned over just as completely. Players on this season's team accounted for 9.0% of last season's minutes and 6.0% of its points. Thomas Dowd, who averaged 14.4 points and 10.1 rebounds, is at Auburn. Cooper and Cobi Campbell both went to Liberty, and Victor Valdes is now at Georgia Tech. Only Kerrington Kiel, Evan Griffin and Hikaru Awata return, alongside seven transfers and five newcomers to college basketball.

That makes last season's Troy numbers a weak guide to tonight. The only real evidence for this group is a 93-65 exhibition win over Stillman, in which Robert Davis Jr. scored 18 points and Oday added 14.

The new Trojans' scorers

Oday is the headliner. At Northern Kentucky last season he averaged 18.6 points on a 28% usage rate, with an offensive rating of 122.3, meaning he produced plenty of points for every possession he finished. Jacoi Hutchinson brings a starter's résumé from Longwood, where he scored 12.3 points per game and made 86.2% of his free throws.

Davis is the swing piece. He led the exhibition in scoring, but his line at Old Dominion was rough: 33.1% from the floor. Caden Diggs, a UMBC transfer who made 35.6% of his threes, gives Howard a forward who can stretch the floor.

UMass keeps its point guard

UMass also lost its top two scorers, Leonardo Bettiol and Marcus Banks Jr., but it brings back far more of last season's team. The roster returns 41.6% of last season's minutes, and the core is in the backcourt. Danny Carbuccia averaged 6.3 assists last season. Jayden Ndjigue, a senior, has started 89 of 95 career games.

The scoring has to come from new faces. Junjie "Barry" Wang averaged 8.5 points at San Francisco, and Northwestern transfer Jordan Clayton shot 41% from three in a limited role. The Minutemen never trailed in an 81-68 exhibition win over Rhode Island, and MAC voters slotted them sixth in the preseason poll.

Frontcourt depth is thinner than planned. Luka Damjanac broke his foot in late August, and as of Oct. 29 he was expected to miss time early in the season. No update on his availability tonight has turned up, which could leave more backup-center work for Dimitri Clerc and freshman Cheik Sylla.

The whistle problem UMass must fix

Last season's UMass defense had one glaring habit: it sent opponents to the line. Its opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 43.8%, which ranked 349th of 365. The Minutemen also could not cash in their own trips, making 67.2% of their free throws, 343rd nationally.

That problem may have walked out the door with the departed players, or it may be a Martin trademark. If it carries over, it matters tonight: Oday and Hutchinson are the kind of attacking guards who draw fouls and convert, and a close game would favor the team that makes its free throws.

What the line is saying

Troy is a 3.5-point favorite, up from 2.5 when our feed first saw the game, and the total has inched to 154.5. The market is backing the home team even though it knows almost nothing about this version of Troy.

Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked Troy 148th and UMass 188th. Little of either team is left, though, so those numbers carry less weight than the home floor and the transfer talent. A high total fits UMass's style last season, when its pace ranked 61st nationally, but two new rotations in an opener can just as easily produce a ragged, foul-filled game.