Maryville University (MO) vs Southern Illinois prediction: Southern Illinois brings a stout defence and a shooting question to Maryville
The Salukis' tune-up against a Division II visitor is a first look at whether Scott Nagy's rebuilt roster can finally make shots to match its defence.
- Southern Illinois should control a Division II visitor at home; the open question is how cleanly the Salukis score, not whether they win.
- Watch Southern Illinois' perimeter shooting. Last season they hit 27.8% from three, 364th of 365.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's pace of 69.6 possessions per 40 minutes (84th) is the tempo baseline.
A defence that travels
Southern Illinois went 16-16 last season and won with stops. Its adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) finished at 99.7, 34th in Division I. Opponents made just 30.2% of their threes, 16th-best in the country, and the Salukis cleared the glass with a 73.0% defensive rebound rate, 49th.
Maryville, a Division II program from the GLVC, arrives with a roster built from freshmen and junior college additions, including Dylan Craven, Nick Horras and John Brigham from Southwestern Illinois CC. Against that kind of opponent, a defence of last season's quality should dictate the night.
The shots that have to fall
The offence was the problem. Southern Illinois ranked 250th in adjusted offensive efficiency last season at 104.9, and its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 49.3% sat 299th.
The Salukis also rarely looked for the three, which sat at 29.6% of their shots (355th in attempt rate). They made too few when they did. Free throws offered no cushion: 67.9%, 328th. This is a reshaped roster. Nagy had commitments from five returning players as of March 31, and the roster lists freshmen Jeremiah Jackson, Pietro Ranieri and Luke Susko. So last season's shooting numbers are a loose guide. A Division II opponent is a fair place to see whether the new pieces change the shot profile.
Tune-up before Paradise Jam
Nagy, hired in March 2024 to replace Bryan Mullins, has a bigger November test ahead. Southern Illinois heads to the Paradise Jam in the U.S. Virgin Islands from Nov. 20 to 23, with three games guaranteed. That makes the Banterra Center tip on Nov. 2 a chance to settle rotations. It is not a measuring stick. Expect long looks at depth, and treat lopsided scoring margins with caution against an opponent whose numbers aren't on file.
Numbers that matter
| Adjusted defence, last season | 34th | Southern Illinois' 99.7 adjusted defensive efficiency was its foundation in 2025-26. |
|---|---|---|
| 3-point %, last season | 27.8% | Ranked 364th of 365, the clearest weakness the rebuilt roster has to fix. |
| Opponent 3-point %, last season | 30.2% | 16th nationally, a perimeter defence that should overwhelm a Division II lineup. |
| Free throw %, last season | 67.9% | 328th, which limits how fast the Salukis can pull away at the line. |
Maryville University (MO) vs Southern Illinois: quick answers
When is Maryville University (MO) vs Southern Illinois?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.