Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons prediction: Wake Forest's transfer-built Deacons debut against a UMES team starting over

Two programs starting over

Opening night in Winston-Salem features two rosters that are still learning each other's names. Wake Forest returns 4.5% of last season's minutes. Maryland Eastern Shore returns 6.9%. Nearly everything in last season's stat books belongs to players who have left.

That changes how to read the numbers. Wake went 18-17 last season and finished 64th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). UMES went 9-23 and finished 347th. That gap explains the size of the spread, but neither team that built those ratings takes the floor tonight.

For the Hawks, the only player back is Levi Beckwith, who started 24 games last season and averaged 2.0 points. Last season's team was defined by sloppy ball security. Its turnover rate of 24.0 per 100 possessions ranked dead last in Division I. With this much churn, nobody knows whether that habit survives. Saadiq Moore, a transfer from Triton College, could be one of the newcomers who carries the load. Cleo Hill Jr. begins his third season in charge.

Kennedy and Ray run the show

Steve Forbes, in his seventh season, rebuilt through the portal, and the centerpiece is Kevair Kennedy. At Merrimack last season he averaged 18.4 points while playing 36.8 minutes a night. His usage rate of 29.5% shows how much of that offense ran through him.

Justin Ray brings the shooting. He made 42% of his threes at Monmouth last season, and an Oct. 10 preview had him starting at small forward at least until Jamari McDowell returns. McDowell has plantar fasciitis and is expected to miss significant time at the start of the year. Wake hasn't set a return date.

Ring Nyeri gives the frontcourt a two-way piece. He averaged 6.3 rebounds at Northern Colorado last season. Xander Pintelon shot 35.2% from three at Florida Atlantic. Isaac Carr is the only returnee who had a real role last season, and he played 11.3 minutes a game.

Defense is the open question

The preseason didn't flatter Wake. Georgetown beat the Deacons 94-77 in a scrimmage and shot 60% from the field. A nine-point loss at South Carolina followed, and Wake has spent the run-up to this opener emphasizing physicality.

Last season's defense gave reason for worry too. It ranked 222nd in defensive efficiency, and opponents took 46.6% of their shots from three, the 17th-highest share nationally. Those were different players, but the scheme belongs to the same staff.

Help in the paint is arriving. Center Antonio Dorn sat out the Georgetown scrimmage after a summer workout injury, and Forbes said he was back as of Oct. 10. Justin Abson is playing under a temporary preliminary injunction from an Indiana court that grants him a fifth year, and no new ruling had surfaced as of Nov. 1. Lukas Bojovic adds more size.

What the number says

Wake showed in our feed at -31.5 and now sits at -33.5, two points of movement toward Wake Forest. Its moneyline is -15000. The total rose from 141.5 to 145.0, so the market expects more scoring than it first did.

Last season's tempo numbers point both ways. Wake played at 69.1 possessions per 40 minutes, 105th nationally, while UMES crawled at 64.5, 324th. The Hawks also scored only 64.4 points a game, 357th. With both coaching staffs returning, tempo preferences are the likeliest thing to carry over. Wake's preseason defense is the variable most likely to push this toward or past the new total.