Maine Black Bears vs Providence Friars prediction: Providence's all-transfer rebuild debuts against Maine with Sabol's status unsettled

A new team in old jerseys

Bryan Hodgson, hired in March, opens his first season at Providence tonight with a roster that barely resembles last season's. Players on this year's team logged just 12.6% of last season's Friars minutes. Ryan Mela, a 9.9-points-per-game forward last season, is the lone notable returner. Everyone else of consequence arrived through the portal.

The biggest of those arrivals may not play. Ryan Sabol averaged 18.9 points at Buffalo last season and made 40.3% of his threes, but he has been listed out with a shoulder problem and missed the October exhibitions. Providence hasn't said whether he plays. Devin Vanterpool, a 15.8-point scorer at Florida Atlantic, hurt his ankle and missed the Oct. 24 exhibition against Georgia Tech; as of Oct. 29, Hodgson said only that he hoped Vanterpool could go.

The rest of the depth chart is thinner than it looked in the summer. Dink Pate left the program on Oct. 16 after an eligibility dispute and is expected to return to the G League. Fifth-year players Joseph Pinion and Derek Simpson sat out the exhibitions while pursuing additional eligibility.

What's left still looks capable. Miles Byrd, a San Diego State transfer and preseason All-Big East pick, is expected to be the focal point, and he scored a team-high 19 in a 101–73 exhibition rout of Georgia Tech. Malik Mack runs the point after transferring from Georgetown.

Maine's offense starts from scratch

Maine's problem last season was simple: it couldn't score. The Black Bears finished 8-24 with an adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of 91.5, which ranked 362nd of 365. They shot 64.1% at the free-throw line, 364th nationally.

The roster has turned over too, but that isn't necessarily good news. Returners account for 21.4% of last season's points, and the top scorer, TJ Biel, is gone. Ace Flagg, who averaged 6.7 points last season, is expected to lead again. Chris Markwood has eight new players, including Holy Cross transfer DeAndre Williams, whom he called a physical, two-way guard. Killian Gribben and Darius Lopes are back after lower-body injuries wiped out nearly all of their seasons. The league coaches picked Maine eighth of nine in the America East.

Where Maine can make it ugly

Last season's Black Bears defended far better than they scored. They forced turnovers on 19.9% of possessions, 42nd in Division I, and held opponents to 29.6% from three, sixth nationally. With so many new faces, treat those as a description of Markwood's system rather than this roster.

That pressure is the one lever Maine has against a Providence backcourt playing its first official game together. The Friars forced turnovers at just a 13.2% clip last season, 357th, though that was a different team. Maine's offensive rebound rate ranked 364th last season, so second chances will be rare.

Tempo, the total and the line

Providence played at the 19th-fastest pace in the country last season, and Hodgson's lineup is built to run with Byrd at the center. Maine played at the 301st-fastest pace. The Friars also beat Pitt 87–64 in the preseason.

The market has the Friars favored by 31.5; the line has moved from 28.5 to 31.5, a notable move toward Providence. The total sits at 150.5. A margin that size depends on depth and garbage time, which makes the Sabol and Vanterpool news more relevant to the spread than to the result. Providence is 12–1 all-time against Maine.