Lyon vs Stephen F. Austin prediction: Stephen F. Austin opens against Lyon with Keon Thompson's status unconfirmed
NAIA Lyon gives the Southland champions a soft season opener, so the real question in Nacogdoches is who runs the offence if their 18.5-point scorer is gone.
- Expect Stephen F. Austin's defence to control an NAIA opponent at home, with the lineup and rotation telling us more than the score.
- Watch Lateef Patrick: last season's 15.2-point scorer becomes the first option if Keon Thompson isn't back.
- No spread or total had been posted as of Oct. 14; last season the Lumberjacks played at a pace ranked 250th of 365.
The Thompson question
Stephen F. Austin went 28-6 last season, won the Southland regular-season title by beating Incarnate Word, and finished with an 89-84 NIT first-round loss at Tulsa in March. Matt Braeuer, hired from Texas Tech's staff in March 2025, now has to replace or reclaim his engine.
That engine was Keon Thompson, who scored 18.5 points a game with a 32.2% usage rate, meaning nearly a third of possessions ended with him when he was on the floor. He doesn't appear on SFA's 2026-27 roster page, and his status is unconfirmed. Dominic Pangonis is now listed on Wright State's roster with SFA as his previous school. If Thompson is gone, Lateef Patrick moves to the top of the scouting report, and the freshmen on the roster, including Erik Makke and Easton Hupp, could get early minutes against Lyon.
A defence built to travel
The constant is defence. Last season SFA allowed 100.0 points per 100 possessions, 29th of 365, and held opponents to 29.9% from three, 11th nationally. Jerald Colonel anchored the paint with 2.5 blocks a game. That's a lot to throw at Lyon, an NAIA program that lost 100-43 to Louisiana Tech and 62-47 to Central Arkansas last season.
How the game takes shape
SFA played slowly last season and rarely gave the ball away. Its turnover rate of 14.0 per 100 possessions ranked 20th. The weak spot was the free-throw line: the Lumberjacks made 68.0% of their free throws, 327th, a habit that rarely matters in a blowout but is worth tracking for a team that will play closer games in conference play. With no line posted yet, the guide to the total is that deliberate pace rather than any number from Lyon.
Key players
- Keon Thompson (Stephen F. Austin): Scored 18.5 points per game last season with a 32.2% usage rate, but his 2026-27 status is unconfirmed.
- Lateef Patrick (Stephen F. Austin): Averaged 15.2 points last season and made 72 threes, the team's high-volume shooter.
- Jerald Colonel (Stephen F. Austin): Blocked 2.5 shots a game last season while posting a 120.6 offensive rating.
- Chrishawn Christmas (Stephen F. Austin): Started all 34 games last season and pulled down 6.8 rebounds a game from the backcourt.
Numbers that matter
| Last season's record | 28-6 | SFA won the Southland regular-season title before falling at Tulsa in the NIT. |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent 3-point % (last season) | 29.9% | Ranked 11th nationally, the core of a defence that should overwhelm an NAIA opponent. |
| Thompson's scoring (last season) | 18.5 | The production SFA must replace if his unconfirmed status turns out to mean he's gone. |
| Free throw % (last season) | 68.0% | Ranked 327th, a weakness that could surface in closer games later in the season. |
Lyon vs Stephen F. Austin: quick answers
When is Lyon vs Stephen F. Austin?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.