Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes prediction: Utah's rebuilt backcourt opens against a Long Beach State roster of strangers
Both teams finished 10-22 last season and kept almost nobody, so a 19.5-point spread rests on Utah's transfer guards being better than whatever the 49ers have assembled.
| Spread | Utah -19.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Utah's experienced transfer guards should control the game at home, though both rosters are brand new and the first half could be ragged.
- Trey Campbell and Jackson Holcombe against a 49ers perimeter rebuilt from the portal, led by Idaho transfer Jack Payne.
- Utah is favored by 19.5, down from 20; Long Beach State lost its only exhibition 92-67 at San Diego State.
Two teams starting from zero
Last season Utah and Long Beach State finished with the same 10-22 record. This season almost none of the players who produced it are left. Utah returns 8.4% of last season's minutes and Long Beach State returns 5.0%, so last season's team numbers mean little tonight, when the Runnin' Utes open their regular season at the Huntsman Center.
The departures tell the story. Utah lost Terrence Brown to North Carolina and Keanu Dawes to Kansas. Long Beach State lost Gavin Sykes, the Big West Freshman of the Year, to TCU, and Petar Majstorovic to Pepperdine. Chris Acker, entering his third season, brings 13 newcomers. Alex Jensen, in his second season at Utah, rebuilt through the portal too, though with more proven production.
Utah's guards carry the edge
Utah's case starts with Trey Campbell, who arrived from Northern Iowa after a fifth-year ruling in August. He started 36 games there last season, and in Utah's three exhibitions he averaged 17 points and made 11 of 25 threes. Jackson Holcombe comes from Utah Valley after scoring 16.0 points per game last season with an offensive rating of 117.3 (points produced per 100 possessions). TJ Burch, a Wright State transfer, used 28.1% of his team's possessions while on the floor last season.
Long Beach State's portal haul looks thinner. Its most-used newcomer, Jack Payne, started 22 games at Idaho and shot 31.6% from three. Most of the rest came off the bench last season, and none averaged more than 6.6 points.
The exhibitions offered a mixed early picture. Utah lost 71-61 at Nevada, then rallied past Oregon 81-77 in overtime. The Utes shot 31.6% from three across those games. Long Beach State's only exhibition was a 92-67 loss at San Diego State, played shorthanded, though no absent player has been named.
A defense that has to change
Utah's defense was the reason last season fell apart. It allowed 120.0 points per 100 possessions, 357th of 365, and forced turnovers on just 13.8% of possessions, 349th. The new guards were built to fix that. Burch averaged 2.6 steals per game at Wright State and Holcombe 2.2 at Utah Valley.
Size and the missing big man
Height is the one area where the 49ers have an edge. Their minutes-weighted average height is 79.9 inches against Utah's 76.1. Noah Amenhauser, an Oregon State transfer center, used 22% of possessions in limited minutes last season, and Bucknell transfer Grgur Brcic adds another big body.
Utah's frontcourt is shorthanded. Freshman big man Fynn Schott had right-leg surgery and, as of a Sep. 18 update, was out to start the season with no return date. The NCAA also ruled signee Noam Yaacov ineligible for 2026-27 in August. That leaves Weber State transfer Malek Gomma, who averaged 6.9 rebounds last season, carrying much of the interior load.
The number and the pace
Utah opened at -20 in our feed and has slipped to -19.5. The total edged from 148 to 148.5. The Utes are 3-1 all-time against the Beach and have won three straight in the series.
Tempo is where style could shape the total, with the caveat that last season's numbers describe other players. Long Beach State played fast last season at 70.6 possessions per 40 minutes, 53rd nationally. Utah played at 65.6, 286th. Acker's system returns with him, while Jensen's new guards will set Utah's pace. A big spread asks the favorite to keep scoring after the game is decided, and a deep Utah bench of transfers gives Jensen plenty of minutes to hand out.
Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes line movement and odds
| Book | 49ers ML | Utes ML | 49ers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1300 | -3000 | +19.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +19.5 (-112) | o147.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +1700 | -4500 | +19.5 (-108) | o146.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +2000 | -7500 | +19.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1500 | -3000 | +19.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1600 | -5000 | +19.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +19.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Long Beach St 49ers: 79% of bets, 18% of the money; Utah Utes: 21% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Utes -19.5: 44% of bets, 27% of the money; Long Beach St 49ers +19.5: 56% of bets, 73% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 67% of bets, 14% of the money; Under 146.5: 33% of bets, 86% of the money.
Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes stats (this season)
| Stat | Long Beach St 49ers | Utah Utes |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 104.6 (255th of 365) | 114.7 (84th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 111.7 (228th of 365) | 110.1 (194th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -7.1 (243rd of 365) | 4.6 (122nd of 365) |
Key players
- Trey Campbell (Utah): Averaged 17 points and made 11 of 25 threes across Utah's exhibitions.
- Jackson Holcombe (Utah): Scored 16.0 points per game with a 117.3 offensive rating at Utah Valley last season.
- TJ Burch (Utah): Averaged 12.4 points and 2.6 steals per game at Wright State last season.
- Malek Gomma (Utah): Started all 32 games at Weber State last season and averaged 6.9 rebounds.
- Jack Payne (Long Beach State): Started 22 games at Idaho last season, averaging 6.6 points on 31.6% three-point shooting.
- Noah Amenhauser (Long Beach State): Scored 5.1 points in 12.2 minutes per game at Oregon State last season on 57.7% shooting.
- Grgur Brcic (Long Beach State): Averaged 4.8 rebounds in 16.9 minutes per game at Bucknell last season.
- Christian Jones (Long Beach State): Shot 35.5% from three in a reserve role last season, one of the few 49ers back.
Numbers that matter
| Utah spread | -19.5 | Down half a point from the -20 our feed first recorded. |
|---|---|---|
| LBSU returning minutes | 5.0% | Almost none of last season's 10-22 team is back, alongside 13 newcomers. |
| Utah defense last season | 357th | Utah allowed 120.0 points per 100 possessions last season, which is what the transfer guards were brought in to fix. |
| LBSU exhibition | 92-67 | The 49ers' lopsided loss at San Diego State was their only preseason game. |
| Campbell's exhibition threes | 11 of 25 | Utah's top transfer was its most reliable shooter while the team made 31.6% from three. |
Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes: quick answers
Who is favored in Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes?
Utah is favored by 19.5 points (Utah -19.5).
What is the over/under for Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Where is Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes played?
Jon M. Huntsman Center, Salt Lake City, UT.
Has the line moved for Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes?
Yes: Long Beach St 49ers opened +21.5 and is now +19.5, and the total moved from 150 to 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Long Beach St 49ers vs Utah Utes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Long Beach St 49ers: 79% of bets, 18% of the money; Utah Utes: 21% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Utes -19.5: 44% of bets, 27% of the money; Long Beach St 49ers +19.5: 56% of bets, 73% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 67% of bets, 14% of the money; Under 146.5: 33% of bets, 86% of the money.