Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs Saint Louis Billikens prediction: Avila sits, Trey Green shoots: Saint Louis opens as a 25-point favorite

Shooters against a closed arc

Saint Louis built a school-record season on shot-making. The Billikens made 39.6% of their threes last season, third in Division I. Trey Green is back after hitting 44.2% from deep, and Ishan Sharma returns as a second sniper off the bench.

Lehigh's defense did one thing unusually well last season: it kept opponents off the line. Only 31.8% of opponent shots were threes, which ranked 355th of 365 in attempt rate, so almost no defense in the country allowed fewer. If the Mountain Hawks run Green and Sharma off the arc and make Saint Louis score inside, the margin shrinks.

The catch is what waits inside. Saint Louis made 60.4% of its twos last season, ninth nationally. Denying threes against this offense only helps if Lehigh's bigs can hold up around the rim, and that is a lot to ask of a team whose block rate sat in the bottom third.

Saint Louis without Avila

The headline absence belongs to the favorite. Robbie Avila's eligibility fight is still in court: a St. Louis Circuit judge granted him a temporary restraining order on Oct. 23, and a preliminary-injunction hearing is set for Nov. 4, two days after this game. Josh Schertz has said Avila will not play in the opener.

That removes last season's starting center, who averaged 12.8 points and 4.1 assists. Saint Louis brings back 58.6% of last season's minutes even before his absence, so this rotation is being rebuilt in real time. Jax Kerr, Alon Michaeli, Sheek Pearson and Elijah Strong have been competing for the frontcourt minutes.

The health picture is murky. Strong grabbed his leg in the second half of the Oct. 9 exhibition win at Nebraska, and no diagnosis has surfaced since. Schertz's Sunday preview included injury updates on Amari McCottry, Sharma and Quentin Jones, but their status hasn't been made public. Three of the Billikens' top returners carrying question marks into a 25-point spread is the most important unknown in this game.

Alvey carries a changed Lehigh

Lehigh won the Patriot League tournament last March, beating Boston University 74-60 in the final before losing to Prairie View A&M in the First Four. The Mountain Hawks bring back 80.6% of last season's minutes, but the departure that matters is Nasir Whitlock, who scored 20.5 points per game and is no longer on the roster.

The offense now runs through Hank Alvey, the Patriot League's preseason Player of the Year. He averaged 15.2 points on 62.4% shooting last season, an efficient interior game that will test whichever Billikens big draws him. Senior point guard Jalen Vasquez is stepping into a larger role, and Joshua Ingram returns as a steady two-way guard.

Second chances won't bail Lehigh out. Its offensive rebound rate ranked 350th last season, and the Saint Louis defense held opponents to a 44.5% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 shots), first in the country.

Tempo and the number

Saint Louis played at 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 20th fastest, while Lehigh sat 230th. Every extra possession widens the gap between a team that finished last season 30th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and one that finished 296th.

The market has leaned toward the Billikens anyway. The spread moved from 24 to 25 since our feed first recorded it, and the total dropped from 156 to 154. Bettors laying the big number are trusting that a short-handed Saint Louis still shoots its way clear. Anyone backing Lehigh is betting on the arc defense, a steady Alvey and an opening-night rotation still finding itself.