Le Moyne Dolphins vs Nebraska Cornhuskers prediction: Le Moyne's brand-new roster faces Sandfort and Nebraska's three-point barrage

A Le Moyne team built from scratch

Nebraska opens its season Monday night in Lincoln coming off a Sweet 16 run. Le Moyne arrives with a roster so new that last season's box scores barely apply. The players on this season's Dolphins roster logged just 4.0% of the program's minutes a year ago. The program added 10 transfers and three freshmen to two returning letterwinners and a redshirt.

The departures cut deep. Center Shilo Jackson scored 15.8 points a game on 63.1% shooting and is gone. Trent Mosquera left for Tennessee Tech. The most-used returner, forward Trevor Roe, played 7.3 minutes a game last season. Le Moyne went 15-17 last season and finished 296th in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), but that rating describes a team that no longer exists.

The new pieces don't come with gaudy résumés. Jayden Teat made 34.7% of his threes at Sacramento State, the steadiest shooting line among the transfers. Przemek Hartman, a 6-10 sophomore center from Louisiana-Monroe, gives the Dolphins some size in the middle. This is also the first meeting between the programs and Le Moyne's first game in Nebraska.

Nebraska's offense runs through Sandfort

Nebraska returns only 39.8% of last season's minutes. It does return the right people. Pryce Sandfort, an All-Big Ten forward, averaged 18.1 points last season and made 41.6% of his threes on heavy volume. Braden Frager, the Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year, scored 11.8 a game off the bench and is expected to move into the starting lineup.

Fred Hoiberg's system lives beyond the arc. Last season Nebraska took 51.1% of its shots from three, the 10th-highest share in the country. Le Moyne's defense allowed opponents to make 35.8% of their threes, 316th nationally, though almost none of those defenders are back.

The transfers add a different dimension. Trevan Leonhardt handed out 6.0 assists a game at Utah Valley. Damon Wilkinson scored 13.9 a game inside at South Dakota State, and 7-foot Boden Kapke from Boston College is expected in the rotation. That gives Nebraska answers if the outside shots don't fall early.

Where Le Moyne looks for points

Nebraska's defense finished last season 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents took plenty of threes against the Huskers but made only 30.5% of them, 25th-best nationally. Nebraska also rarely fouled, so a new group can't count on free throws to steady itself.

The Le Moyne newcomers didn't score efficiently at their previous stops. Jeremy Clayville started 14 games at NJIT but posted a 42.7% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times). Ball security was a problem for last season's Dolphins, who turned it over on 19.0% of possessions. A roster still learning each other's tendencies won't fix that overnight against a Nebraska team that forces turnovers.

Orme's hamstring and the line

Belmont transfer Sam Orme missed all three exhibition games with a hamstring injury. Hoiberg said the staff is taking "a very precautionary approach" so the injury doesn't linger into the season. Nebraska hasn't said whether Orme plays Monday. Orme made 39.7% of his threes at Belmont, so his absence removes a shooter, not the offense. Cale Jacobsen started in his place and played 25 minutes in the final exhibition against Kansas State. Four-star freshman guard Jacob Lanier could also see time.

The market has barely moved. Nebraska opened at 34 in our feed and sits at -33.5. The total slid from 153.5 to 152. Last season Nebraska played at a deliberate pace, 261st in possessions per 40 minutes, and a blowout usually means deep bench minutes in the second half. Both factors bear on a number this large.