Lawrence University vs Green Bay prediction: Green Bay's defense gets a low-stakes first test against Lawrence
The Division III Vikings open the Phoenix's regular season, but the night is really about whether Doug Gottlieb's third team can guard anyone.
- Green Bay should be comfortable against a Division III visitor, with the real evaluation aimed at its own defense.
- Watch Odessa College transfer Ahmere Carson, the standout of the exhibition loss to Marquette, in his first regular-season minutes.
- No spread or total is posted. Last season's pace of 64.8 possessions, 312th nationally, points toward a deliberate game.
An opener with homework attached
Lawrence is a Division III program from the Midwest Conference, so the scoreboard on Monday, Nov. 2 (7:30 p.m. ET) matters less than what it reveals. This is Green Bay's regular-season tip-off and Doug Gottlieb's first official game since signing an extension through 2030-31 heading into his third season.
The tune-up phase didn't go well. Marquette beat the Phoenix 87-60 in an exhibition, and the lone bright spot was Ahmere Carson, a junior who arrived from Odessa College. A Division III opponent gives Gottlieb room to see whether Carson's showing was a sign of things to come.
The defense is the question
Last season's Phoenix went 18-15 and finished third in the Horizon League despite a defense that ranked 321st of 365 in efficiency, allowing 114.7 points per 100 possessions. They barely disrupted anyone: their forced turnover rate of 13.7% ranked 350th, and opponents made 36.1% of their threes, 327th nationally.
The offense carried them. Effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, sat at 55.3%, 38th in the country. Green Bay also lived at the line, with a free throw rate of 41.6% (35th) and 76.6% shooting from the stripe. How much of that carries over is unclear, so treat last season's profile as a rough guide.
A thinner backcourt
Guard Jaxon Edwards, a 6-5 senior transfer from IU Indianapolis, tore his ACL and dislocated a knee in an Aug. 30 pickup game and is out for the 2026-27 season. Calvin transfer Jalen Overway is also out for the year with a torn ACL.
Against Lawrence, the depth hit shouldn't decide anything. It will shape who gets minutes, and an opener like this is where Gottlieb sorts out his rotation before Horizon play.
Numbers that matter
| Green Bay defensive efficiency rank, last season | 321st | The Phoenix allowed 114.7 points per 100 possessions, the weakness this opener begins to test. |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay effective FG%, last season | 55.3% | Ranked 38th nationally and was the engine of an 18-15 season. |
| Green Bay pace, last season | 64.8 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 312th nationally, suggesting a deliberate game shape. |
| Exhibition loss to Marquette | 87-60 | The most recent look at this roster, with Ahmere Carson the standout. |
Lawrence University vs Green Bay: quick answers
When is Lawrence University vs Green Bay?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.