Lafayette Leopards vs Butler Bulldogs prediction: Ronald Nored's rebuilt Butler opens against a Lafayette team starting over

A new era, mostly new faces

Hinkle Fieldhouse opens a new chapter tonight. Thad Matta has retired, and Ronald Nored, a 36-year-old Butler alum who played on the 2010 and 2011 teams that reached the national title game, coaches his first official game. The opponent is a program Butler has never played.

Nored inherits almost none of last season's team. Butler returns just 11.8% of last season's minutes, with five returners and 10 newcomers, and every one of its top five scorers is gone, Finley Bizjack to West Virginia and Jamie Kaiser Jr. to Richmond among them. Big East voters picked the Bulldogs last, and the program carries an eight-year NCAA tournament drought. Preseason was humbling: in an October exhibition, Indiana stretched its lead to 33 behind a long run. Last season's team numbers describe a roster that no longer exists, so tonight is the first real look at this one.

Where Butler's points come from

The rebuild runs through the transfer portal, and the common thread is shooting. Jordan Ellerbee scored 13.1 points per game at Florida Gulf Coast last season. Christian Moore hit 38.7% of his threes at The Citadel, and Ole Miss transfer Eduardo Klafke made 42.6% from deep in a smaller role. North Dakota State's Treyson Anderson adds a forward who can step out.

Inside, Drayton Jones is the anchor who knows Hinkle. He posted a 132.2 offensive rating last season (points produced per 100 possessions), finishing efficiently without needing the ball.

The swing piece is point guard Jalen Jackson, whose ankle injury limited him to six games last season. He was hurt again in an exhibition against Indiana State, and Nored said on Oct. 20 the focus was getting him ready for the opener. He still totaled 63 points in 82 minutes across three exhibitions, but Butler hadn't released an injury report for tonight as of the latest notes. Freshman guard Samu Adler, back from finger surgery, debuted in the final exhibition.

Lafayette starts nearly from scratch

The Leopards' turnover is almost as steep. They return 25.4% of last season's minutes, and four of last year's top five scorers left, including Caleb Williams, who averaged 15.6 points before moving to Jacksonville, and a guard named Mark Butler, now at Rider. That team went 11-21 and finished 318th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions relative to opponents, adjusted for schedule).

Shareef Jackson, a 6-8 forward, is the lone holdover from last year's starting group. He shot 57.1% from the field but just 52.4% at the line, which makes him a fouling target if he gets going. Coach Mike McGarvey, in his fifth season, added length on the wings, but how the backcourt fits together is an open question. Lafayette played no documented exhibitions and was picked seventh in the Patriot League, so Butler will see it cold.

Tempo, length and the number

Last season Lafayette played at 64.6 possessions per 40 minutes, 319th in the country, while Butler played at 69.4. With new rosters and a new Butler coach, those styles may not carry over, but a deliberate Lafayette would shrink the number of possessions Butler needs to build a three-touchdown cushion. That tension sits at the heart of the spread.

Lafayette may hold a size edge: its minutes-weighted average height is 80.1 inches to Butler's 78.4, a gap the Leopards' long wings could widen.

The market opened higher. Butler was -22 when our feed first saw the game and sits at -20.5 across eight books, a move toward Lafayette. The total has ticked from 148.5 to 149.5. Nobody has a regular-season data point on either roster, so the line rests on talent and conference pedigree rather than results.