La Salle Explorers vs Houston Cougars prediction: Houston's transfer-built roster debuts against a La Salle team prone to turnovers

Houston starts over again

Houston went 30-7 last season and still ended it with a 65-55 loss to Illinois in the Sweet 16. Tonight's game at the Fertitta Center (9 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network) is La Salle's season opener and a first look at what replaces that team, and almost everything has been replaced. Players on this roster logged only 23.4% of Houston's minutes last season.

The backcourt core of Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan is gone, along with Chris Cenac Jr. in the frontcourt. Sampson, back for his 13th season, restocked with players who carried offenses elsewhere. Corey Hadnot II averaged 20.4 points at Purdue Fort Wayne. Delrecco Gillespie pulled down 11.2 rebounds a game at Kent State. Dedan Thomas Jr. ran LSU's offense with 6.4 assists per game, and Braden East arrives from Lamar as another big body.

Joseph Tugler is the bridge from the old roster to the new one, a rim protector who keeps the defense recognizable. Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put Houston 6th in net efficiency and 4th on defense. Those numbers belong to a different group of players, so treat them as a description of Sampson's system rather than of this roster.

Where La Salle loses possessions

The likeliest way this gets out of hand is on the turnover column. La Salle gave the ball away on 18.2% of its possessions last season, 275th of 365. Houston's defense forced turnovers on 20.6% of possessions, 24th in the country, and that pressure travels with the coaching staff no matter who wears the jerseys.

The glass adds more empty trips. Houston ranked 43rd in offensive rebound rate last season, the share of its own misses it recovers. La Salle was 271st in defensive rebound rate. A team that coughs up the ball and can't finish defensive possessions gives a favorite extra shots in a game that won't have many possessions to begin with.

La Salle's shooting bet

Darris Nichols, in his second season, had a shooting problem to solve. La Salle's effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) was 45.7%, 359th nationally. His answer came through the portal. Kam Burton hit 42.7% of his threes at Stephen F. Austin, and Vice Zanki made 38.5% at Niagara.

The Explorers have seven returners and 11 newcomers after cycling through 23 different starting lineups last season amid injuries. Nichols said, "We're more talented than a year ago." Rob Dockery, the top returner, backed that up in the exhibition opener with 21 points on 8-of-10 shooting in a win over Neumann.

Houston is a much harder test. Opponents shot 31.6% from three against the Cougars last season, 58th nationally, and Houston ranked 11th in two-point defense. Burton and Zanki need to hit contested threes for La Salle to keep this from becoming lopsided.

A slow game, a big number

The market has moved toward Houston. The spread opened in our feed at -27.5 and now sits at -29.5. The total has dropped from 140.25 to 137.5.

The lower total fits Houston's style. The Cougars played at 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 315th in the country, and allowed 62.3 points per game, second-fewest nationally. La Salle doesn't push the pace either.

With fewer possessions, covering a spread this large means winning nearly every one of them. That is where the open questions sit. Houston's new pieces have never played a regular-season game together, and La Salle's transfers have yet to face a defense like this. Neither team has named starters, and no injury news has surfaced for either side.