Jessup University vs Sacramento State prediction: Prophet Johnson and a fresh Big West era open against Jessup
Sacramento State's first game since leaving the Big Sky is a look at whether last season's 10-21 group, back with all of its minutes and points, has found a second gear.
- Sacramento State should control a fast game at The Well, with the outcome mattering less than how its returning guards look.
- Prophet Johnson, who averaged 18.2 points last season, against a Jessup roster we hold no Division I data on.
- No spread or total is posted. Last season's pace, 12th-fastest of 365, points to plenty of possessions once a line appears.
A new conference, a familiar roster
Mike Bibby starts his second season at Sacramento State with a new address. The Hornets left the Big Sky for the Big West, and university leadership is pushing to raise the program's profile. The Hornet Madness event was built around that.
The Monday, Nov. 2 date with Jessup, a Sacramento-area neighbour, is billed as an exhibition. It is the second straight year these programs have played. The 2025 meeting finished 86-76.
Last season's 10-21 finish came with an adjusted net efficiency of -9.2, ranked 268th of 365. That rating measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. The four players who carried last season's rotation are all on this season's roster.
Johnson and Summers carry it
Prophet Johnson was the engine last season. He played 35.4 minutes a night and averaged 18.2 points and 2.6 steals. Jahni Summers gave the offence its cleanest shooting, hitting 42.2% from three.
Mikey Williams scored 17.1 points per game, but his effective field goal percentage was 40.1. That stat counts threes as 1.5 makes. How efficiently he plays in November is worth watching.
Speed and the foul line
Bibby's team ran last season, playing at 72.5 possessions per 40 minutes. It also lived at the line. Its free throw rate of 40.7 attempts per 100 shots ranked 48th, and it made 77.7% of those free throws, 20th nationally.
The weakness was defence. Opponents shot 55.0% inside the arc, which ranked 325th. Against a smaller-college opponent, any slippage there would show up early.
Key players
- Prophet Johnson (Sacramento State): Averaged 18.2 points and 7.4 rebounds last season with a 25.2% usage rate.
- Jahni Summers (Sacramento State): Hit 42.2% from three last season on 135 attempts.
- Mark Lavrenov (Sacramento State): Posted a 117.2 offensive rating last season, the best among the returners.
- Mikey Williams (Sacramento State): Scored 17.1 points per game last season, but with a 40.1% effective field goal percentage.
Numbers that matter
| Pace last season | 72.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 12th-most in Division I, so expect a fast game. |
|---|---|---|
| Free throw % | 77.7% | Ranked 20th last season, a reliable source of easy points. |
| Opponent 2-point % | 55.0% | Ranked 325th last season, the defensive hole Bibby has to close. |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -9.2 | Last season's final rating, 268th of 365, the baseline for the Big West move. |
Jessup University vs Sacramento State: quick answers
When is Jessup University vs Sacramento State?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.