Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction: Texas Tech's rebuilt shooting cast debuts without Toppin against Jackson State
No. 19 Texas Tech opens with a roster of transfers, two players eligible only by court order and its All-American on the shelf, against a Jackson State team that struggled to protect the ball or finish possessions last season.
| Spread | Texas Tech -38 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158 |
- Texas Tech's transfer shooters should pile up threes against a Jackson State defense that ranked 254th in three-point defense last season.
- Watch the defensive glass: Jackson State's rebounding ranked 363rd last season, and Tech's frontline is thin without Toppin and Stillwell.
- Texas Tech is favored by 37.5, up from 34.5 when our feed first saw it; Jackson State turned it over on 19.6% of possessions last season.
A ranked team under construction
Texas Tech opens its 102nd season tonight as a ranked team that barely resembles last year's. The Red Raiders return just 34.2% of last season's minutes, which makes last season's team numbers a loose guide to who takes the floor in Lubbock.
The biggest absence is JT Toppin, the All-American forward who tore his ACL at Arizona State in February. Grant McCasland said on Oct. 27 that Toppin is on track to miss the start of the season. McCasland has also said Toppin isn't close to practicing and has no set timetable.
The courtroom matters almost as much as the injury report. UCF transfer Jamichael Stillwell was ineligible because of court rulings as of Nov. 1. Donovan Atwell and Darrion Williams are playing under temporary injunctions granted this fall. Those orders keep them eligible for now, but further court steps remain.
The projected lineup leans on newcomers: Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn in the backcourt, Atwell at small forward, Williams at power forward and freshman Bassala Bagayoko at center, with Josiah Moseley among the reserves expected to help. All of that is projection, and center is the least settled spot.
Shooters against a soft perimeter
Whatever the lineup, it can shoot. Atwell made 45.6% of his threes last season on 285 attempts, the best returning shooting season on either roster. Gibbs-Lawhorn hit 41.4% from deep at UNLV, and Davis shot 40% at Hofstra.
That fits a program that already lived beyond the arc. Last season's Red Raiders made 39.1% of their threes, 7th in Division I.
Jackson State's perimeter defense offers little resistance. The Tigers allowed opponents to make 34.8% of their threes last season, 254th of 365. With Tech's frontcourt depleted, expect the offense to run through the guards and the wings, and expect a lot of catch-and-shoot looks.
Where Jackson State loses possessions
The Tigers' problem last season wasn't one bad unit. It was the leaks at both ends of a possession.
On offense, Jackson State turned it over on 19.6% of its trips, 336th nationally. It also made only 44.6% of its twos, 360th, so empty trips piled up even when the ball stayed in its hands.
On defense, the Tigers grabbed only 62.8% of opponents' misses, 363rd of 365. Texas Tech wasn't a pressure team last season, with a forced turnover rate that ranked 322nd, so second chances look like the likelier source of extra possessions. Jackson State added Incarnate Word transfer Jayden Williams for rim protection, but Tech can win the glass even without Toppin.
The Tigers' best path to points is the foul line. They drew free throws at a rate that ranked 107th last season, while Tech's own free throw rate ranked 349th.
Ruffin and a debut on the sideline
This is Trey Johnson's first game as a head coach. He was promoted in May after serving as associate head coach under Mo Williams, and his team opens with 14 straight road games.
Johnson's best asset is Daeshun Ruffin, last season's SWAC Player of the Year. Ruffin averaged 22.0 points with a usage rate of 35.9%, meaning more than a third of Jackson State's possessions ended with him when he was on the floor. He missed the end of last season, including both SWAC tournament games, and Jackson State hasn't said whether he plays tonight.
Dorian McMillian, a preseason All-SWAC pick alongside Ruffin, also returns. Jackson State brings back 55.0% of last season's minutes and added seven transfers, so it has more continuity than its host, though from a team that finished 12-21.
A 34.5-point number
A 37.5-point number Texas Tech is favored by 37.5, up from the 34.5 our feed recorded when it first saw the game on Nov. 1. The line has moved from 34.5 to 37.5 toward the Red Raiders. The total sits at 157.5, up from 155.0.
Tempo bears on that total. Jackson State played fast last season, ranking 53rd in pace, while Tech ranked 192nd. A spread this wide also rests on how deep McCasland goes with Toppin and Stillwell out and an Illinois game eight days away.
The Red Raiders are 3-0 in season openers under McCasland and 2-0 all-time against Jackson State, though this is the first time Tech has opened a season against the Tigers.
Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Raiders ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +38.5 (-125) | o158.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +37.5 (-106) | o158.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +38.5 (-115) | o158.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +37.5 (+100) | o158.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +12000 | -100000 | +38 (-110) | o158 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +8000 | -100000 | +37.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +37.5 (-105) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +38.5 (-110) | o158 (-110) |
Where the money is on Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
On the Kalshi moneyline: Jackson St Tigers: 88% of bets, 2% of the money; Texas Tech Red Raiders: 12% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders -36.5: 62% of bets, 89% of the money; Jackson St Tigers +36.5: 38% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 88% of bets, 94% of the money; Under 156.5: 12% of bets, 6% of the money.
Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders stats (this season)
| Stat | Jackson St Tigers | Texas Tech Red Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 97.5 (338th of 365) | 124.7 (17th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 120.3 (347th of 365) | 98.5 (26th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -22.8 (351st of 365) | 26.3 (20th of 365) |
Key players
- Donovan Atwell (Texas Tech): Made 45.6% of 285 three-point attempts last season and is playing under a temporary injunction.
- Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (Texas Tech): Averaged 20.7 points and shot 41.4% from three at UNLV last season.
- Cruz Davis (Texas Tech): Scored 20.1 points per game with 4.6 assists at Hofstra last season.
- Darrion Williams (Texas Tech): Averaged 14.0 points and made 40.4% of his threes at NC State last season, and is eligible under a temporary injunction.
- Daeshun Ruffin (Jackson State): Averaged 22.0 points on a 35.9% usage rate last season; his availability is unconfirmed.
- Dorian McMillian (Jackson State): Scored 11.5 points per game and made 33.3% of 168 threes last season.
- Tamarion Hoover (Jackson State): Shot 34.7% from three and 87.5% at the line last season.
- Jayden Williams (Jackson State): Blocked 0.6 shots in just 8.0 minutes per game at Incarnate Word last season.
Numbers that matter
| Tech returning minutes | 34.2% | Most of Texas Tech's minutes go to newcomers, so last season's team stats are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| JSU defensive rebound rate, last season | 62.8% | Ranked 363rd of 365, the clearest path to extra Tech possessions. |
| Atwell three-point %, last season | 45.6% | Tech's top returning shooter faces a defense that ranked 254th against the three. |
| Spread | -34.5 | Texas Tech's number hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. |
| Total | 155.5 | Up from 155.0, with Jackson State's pace ranked 53rd last season. |
Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders: quick answers
Who is favored in Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
Texas Tech is favored by 38 points (Texas Tech -38).
What is the over/under for Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
The total is 158 points.
When is Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders played?
United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX.
Has the line moved for Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
Yes: Jackson St Tigers opened +34.5 and is now +37.5, and the total moved from 155 to 158.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Jackson St Tigers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Jackson St Tigers: 88% of bets, 2% of the money; Texas Tech Red Raiders: 12% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders -36.5: 62% of bets, 89% of the money; Jackson St Tigers +36.5: 38% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 88% of bets, 94% of the money; Under 156.5: 12% of bets, 6% of the money.