Fresno Pacific vs Fresno State prediction: Jake Heidbreder and a new-look backcourt open Fresno State's Pac-12 era
With Zaon Collins gone to Ball State, the Bulldogs' home opener against Fresno Pacific is a first look at who handles the ball in a new conference season.
- Fresno State should control a home game against a non-Division I visitor, much as it did in last season's 88-51 win.
- Watch the Bulldogs' ball security without Collins; they ranked 295th in turnover rate last season.
- No spread or total has been posted. Last season's final net efficiency ranked Fresno State 131st of 365.
A new conference, a familiar opener
Fresno State starts its first Pac-12 season the way it has started several recent ones: with Fresno Pacific at the Save Mart Center. The Bulldogs won the most recent meeting 88-51 on Nov. 3, 2025, and the Sunbirds arrive under a new head coach, Clovis native Daniel Dyck.
Vance Walberg is in his third season in charge, coming off a 13-19 year. The tip time is unsettled, with listings ranging from 6 p.m. PT to TBD. An exhibition against Cal State Fullerton on Oct. 24 comes first and should offer the earliest clues about rotation.
Who runs the offense now
The biggest hole is at point guard. Zaon Collins handed out 4.6 assists per game last season and has moved on to Ball State. Fresno State's turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) ranked 295th of 365 even with him, so ball security is the first thing to watch.
The scoring core is largely intact: players on the roster account for 77.4% of last season's minutes. Jake Heidbreder averaged 17.0 points and shot 90.1% at the line. Local coverage still describes a slew of fresh faces, including transfers Quentin Rhymes (Nebraska), KJ Perry (BYU/Citrus), Baye Fall and Dragos Lungu, and the roster isn't final.
A defense with one clear strength
Last season the Bulldogs ran opponents off the arc well, holding them to 30.2% from three, 17th nationally. Inside was another story: opponents made 55.3% of their twos, 331st, and the block rate also ranked 331st. Last season's final adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 103rd. Size inside matters with freshman Impact Stickman out for the season after a torn ACL, though Brian Amuneke is set to rejoin the team.
Key players
- Jake Heidbreder (Fresno State): Averaged 17.0 points in 37.0 minutes a night last season and made 90.1% of his free throws.
- DeShawn Gory (Fresno State): Carried a team-high 24.6% usage rate last season while scoring 13.7 points per game.
- Wilson Jacques (Fresno State): Started all 32 games last season and pulled down 8.8 rebounds per game.
- Cameron Faas (Fresno State): Hit 37.1% of his threes last season, the best mark among the returners.
Numbers that matter
| Last meeting | 88-51 | Fresno State's winning margin over Fresno Pacific on Nov. 3, 2025. |
|---|---|---|
| Returning minutes | 77.4% | Share of last season's minutes played by players on this season's roster. |
| Turnover rate rank, last season | 295th | Ball security was a weakness even before Collins left. |
| Opponent 3-point %, last season | 30.2% | The Bulldogs' best defensive trait, 17th nationally. |
Fresno Pacific vs Fresno State: quick answers
When is Fresno Pacific vs Fresno State?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.