Denver Pioneers vs Wisconsin Badgers prediction: Wisconsin's rebuilt shooters open against Denver's porous defense

Two strangers in Madison

Neither team that tips at the Kohl Center tonight looks much like the one that finished last season. Wisconsin returns 44.5% of last season's minutes and lost Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, who averaged 20.7 and 19.1 points. Denver returns just 27.0%, with 12 of 14 players new to the program, and opens its first season in the West Coast Conference after being picked last in the 10-team preseason poll.

That turnover makes last season's team numbers a shaky guide, especially for Denver. But one pattern is worth watching from the opening possessions: Wisconsin built its offense around the three, and Denver could not stop anyone from making them.

Threes into an open door

Wisconsin took 52.1% of its field goal attempts from three last season, 7th-most of 365 teams. Denver's defense allowed opponents 36.9% from deep, 352nd in the country, and finished 354th in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) at 121.9.

Greg Gard, in his 12th season, restocked the perimeter through the portal. Eian Elmer shot 42.9% from three at Miami (Ohio), and Trey Autry made 84 threes at George Washington. Reserve guard Braeden Carrington, who hit 40.1% last season, won an injunction Oct. 23 for an extra year of eligibility. If Denver's new roster defends anything like the old one, Wisconsin's volume should turn into points quickly.

Life after Boyd and Blackwell

Nick Boyd averaged 20.7 points and John Blackwell, now at Duke, averaged 19.1. Replacing that scoring is the season's central question in Madison, and this is the first live answer. The projected lineup pairs Owen Foxwell, who spent five seasons in Australia's NBL, with Carrington, Elmer, Austin Rapp and Nolan Winter.

Winter, a preseason All-Big Ten pick, averaged 13.1 points last season and is the anchor inside. He had offseason ankle surgery, and Gard's early-October update said the timeline was always to be ready for the opener. Rapp was also recovering from an injury as of Oct. 7, with no exact status since.

Depth is thinner than the roster count suggests. Guard Josh Manchester is out for the season after shoulder surgery, and freshman LaTrevion Fenderson is sitting out the year to focus on academics. Seven-footer Will Garlock missed the Oklahoma State exhibition after a practice injury and was considered day-to-day; Wisconsin hasn't said whether he plays.

Carson Johnson against the size gap

Denver's hope runs through Carson Johnson, the reigning Summit League Player of the Year. He averaged 20.1 points last season and shot 41.4% from three while playing nearly every minute. Shaun Wysocki is the other returner who matters, an efficient finisher with a 63.4% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) in a reserve role.

The transfers around them, including CJ Hyland, Kam Martin and Jordan Rogers, mostly played supporting roles at mid-major programs. Size is a real problem: Wisconsin's minutes-weighted height is 79.7 inches to Denver's 76.6.

Denver also can't count on cheap possessions. Last season it forced turnovers on 13.2% of opponent possessions, 358th nationally, while Wisconsin gave the ball away on just 13.4%, 10th-lowest. A heavy underdog needs steals to swing a game, and nothing in either profile suggests they arrive.

A big spread, a bigger total

Wisconsin is favored by 23.25, up from 22.5 when our feed first recorded the line. The total sits at 159.5 and hasn't moved.

That total reflects Denver's scoreboard: the Pioneers scored and allowed 82.8 points per game last season. Wisconsin played slower, at 66.1 possessions per 40 minutes (267th), so the Badgers' preferred tempo pulls against the number. The series offers no guide; Wisconsin leads it 2-0, and the teams haven't met since 1988. With two rebuilt rotations, the first half should show which of last season's identities survived the offseason.