Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes prediction: Dartmouth's three-point habit runs into Marist's arc-wrecking defense
Two rebuilt rosters open the season at McCann Arena, and the clearest inherited trait is Marist's habit of making opponents miss from deep.
| Spread | Marist -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 137.5 |
- A slow, grinding opener in which Marist's defense and home floor matter more than either team's thin returning core.
- Dartmouth's shooters against Marist's perimeter defense, which held opponents to 28.3% from three last season, second in Division I.
- Marist is -6.5 after first showing at -6.25. The total fell from 141.5 to 137.5, which fits Marist's pace, 250th last season.
Where the threes go to die
Marist has owned this series. The Red Foxes had won six straight against Dartmouth before last November's 75-56 win in Hanover, and they have won all three meetings in the last three seasons.
Last season Marist ranked 4th in Division I in defensive efficiency, allowing 95.7 points per 100 possessions. The sharpest edge was on the perimeter. Opponents made just 28.3% of their threes, second-best in the country. Dartmouth is built to test exactly that. The Big Green took 49.1% of their shots from three last season, 21st-most nationally, and hit 36.2%, which ranked 52nd.
The question for Monday's opener is how much of either identity survived the offseason. Dartmouth's shooters are mostly new, and Marist's defenders are mostly new too. The system is the part most likely to carry over. John Dunne coached Marist last season, and no change has surfaced since.
Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes line movement and odds
| Book | Green ML | Foxes ML | Green spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +260 | -325 | +7.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +270 | -360 | +7.5 (-114) | o137.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +260 | -325 | +7.5 (-108) | o137.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +260 | -320 | +7.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +255 | -325 | +7.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +250 | -315 | +7.5 (-114) | o137.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +275 | -350 | +7.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +260 | -335 | +7.5 (-110) | o137 (-110) |
Where the money is on Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Dartmouth Big Green: 57% of bets, 20% of the money; Marist Red Foxes: 43% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Marist Red Foxes -6.5: 78% of bets, 91% of the money; Dartmouth Big Green +6.5: 22% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 138.5: 16% of bets, 23% of the money; Under 138.5: 84% of bets, 77% of the money.
Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes stats (this season)
| Stat | Dartmouth Big Green | Marist Red Foxes |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 105.7 (230th of 365) | 100.1 (317th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 114.8 (285th of 365) | 101.8 (54th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -9.1 (265th of 365) | -1.7 (187th of 365) |
Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes: quick answers
Who is favored in Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes?
Marist is favored by 7.5 points (Marist -7.5).
What is the over/under for Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes?
The total is 137.5 points.
When is Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes played?
McCann Arena, Poughkeepsie, NY.
Has the line moved for Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes?
Yes: Dartmouth Big Green opened +6.5 and is now +7.5, and the total moved from 141 to 137.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Dartmouth Big Green: 57% of bets, 20% of the money; Marist Red Foxes: 43% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Marist Red Foxes -6.5: 78% of bets, 91% of the money; Dartmouth Big Green +6.5: 22% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 138.5: 16% of bets, 23% of the money; Under 138.5: 84% of bets, 77% of the money.