CSU San Marcos vs Cal Poly prediction: Cal Poly brings back the nation's fastest pace against CSU San Marcos
With 10 of its top 11 scorers back, Cal Poly's first look at its 2026-27 team should show whether last season's frantic, three-heavy style has a sharper edge.
- Expect Cal Poly to push the ball from the opening tip and fire threes against a Division II visitor.
- Watch Cal Poly's ball security: last season it turned the ball over on 20.0% of possessions, 346th of 365.
- No spread or total is posted. Last season Cal Poly played at 75.6 possessions per 40 minutes, the fastest pace in Division I.
The fastest team returns intact
Cal Poly finished last season 14-19 and played faster than anyone. Its pace of 75.6 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 1st of 365, and its games were shootouts: the Mustangs scored 82.1 points a game and allowed 85.0, which ranked 361st.
What makes last season's numbers worth reading is who is back. Ten of the top 11 scorers return, including 2026 All-Big West picks Hamad Mousa and Cayden Ward. That continuity makes last season's profile a fair starting point for the first time this group takes the floor.
Threes, turnovers and a soft middle
The Mustangs built their offence around the arc. Last season 52.4% of their shots were threes, 6th-most in the country, though they made just 33.1% of them.
The flaws were clear. Cal Poly gave the ball away too often, and its defence protected the rim poorly, with a block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) of 5.8%, 349th nationally. One strength stands out for any close finish: the Mustangs made 78.7% of their free throws, 9th in Division I. Against a Division II opponent, the useful questions are whether the turnovers and interior defence look any better.
Opener or exhibition
The game's status is unsettled. A Sep. 20 Cal Poly release described it as the season opener against Division II Cal State San Marcos, set for 7:30 p.m. at Mott Athletics Center after 42 days of preparation. Cal Poly's schedule page lists it as an exhibition. CSU San Marcos's posted schedule begins on Nov. 13, so the Cougars' side hasn't confirmed the date.
The Cougars are coached by Brady Bergeson, who took the job in June 2025 after a decade as head coach at Regis. No injury or eligibility news has surfaced for either team, and Mike DeGeorge remains Cal Poly's head coach.
Key players
- Hamad Mousa (Cal Poly): A 2026 All-Big West selection, Mousa returns as part of a group that brings back 10 of last season's top 11 scorers.
- Cayden Ward (Cal Poly): Also a 2026 All-Big West pick, Ward is back to help run an offence that scored 82.1 points a game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Pace last season | 75.6 | Possessions per 40 minutes, the fastest in Division I last season. |
|---|---|---|
| 3-point attempt rate last season | 52.4% | Over half of Cal Poly's shots were threes, 6th-most nationally. |
| Turnover rate last season | 20.0% | Ranked 346th of 365, the biggest flaw in Cal Poly's offence. |
| Free throw % last season | 78.7% | 9th in Division I, a strength in tight finishes. |
CSU San Marcos vs Cal Poly: quick answers
When is CSU San Marcos vs Cal Poly?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.