Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns prediction: Vokietaitis and Texas aim at Chicago State's porous interior
A rebuilt No. 7 Texas opens its season against a Chicago State defense that finished dead last nationally in two-point defense last season, under a 39.5-point spread.
| Spread | Texas -40.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- Texas should own the paint early and often; the open question is how fast a nearly all-new rotation settles in after an exhibition loss.
- Matas Vokietaitis against a Chicago State frontcourt whose block rate ranked 361st of 365 last season.
- Texas is a 39.5-point favorite, down from 40; Chicago State's 59.8% opponent two-point mark last season frames how lopsided the paint could get.
The paint is wide open
Texas opens a new era tonight with a familiar weapon. Matas Vokietaitis, the only Longhorn back with real minutes and a preseason All-SEC second-team pick, averaged 15.6 points last season while shooting 61.7% from the floor, all of it inside the arc.
Chicago State's defense gave up that shot all too easily last season. Last season the Cougars allowed opponents to make 59.8% of their twos, which ranked 365th of 365. Their block rate, the share of opponent two-point attempts they swatted, ranked 361st. Texas also brings in David Punch from TCU, a forward who blocked 1.9 shots a game last season, so the size gap runs both ways.
The Longhorns' roster carries more length on average, and last season's version lived at the foul line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) that ranked 12th nationally. Expect a steady diet of post touches and drives until the Cougars prove they can stop them.
Two rosters built from scratch
Last season's numbers are a shaky guide for both teams. Chicago State returns just 7.7% of last season's minutes, and Texas returns only 13.2%. Coach Sean Miller, in his second season, reloaded through the portal, and the Longhorns lost 87-74 to St. John's in their exhibition.
The backcourt is still taking shape. Mikey Lewis, the Saint Mary's transfer, had surgery on a fractured fifth metatarsal in his right foot, and Miller said Sunday he is still expected back in mid-to-late December. With Lewis out, freshman Austin Goosby and Colorado transfer Isaiah Johnson project as the starting guards, with Amari Evans in the mix. Johnson averaged 16.9 points at Colorado last season. Forward John Clark broke a bone in his hand before the exhibition and could be cleared this week, though Texas has not confirmed he plays tonight.
Chicago State, in Landon Bussie's second season, went 7-25 last season and returns just 7.7% of its minutes. The Cougars' rebuild leans on transfers such as Armari Carraway and Bryan Akanmu, and no injury news has surfaced on their side.
Where the Cougars can bite
Chicago State's one real strength last season was chaos. The Cougars forced turnovers on 20.5% of opponent possessions, 31st nationally, and their steal rate ranked 24th. Against a Texas backcourt that features a freshman starter and is missing Mikey Lewis, that pressure is the Cougars' best hope of keeping this within reach.
The catch is that pressure came at a cost. Chicago State's defensive rebounding ranked 336th, and opponents attempted threes at the third-highest rate in the country against them. Johnson, who shot 37.8% from deep at Colorado last season, should find room when the Cougars gamble.
Reading a 39.5-point line
The market sees a mismatch. Texas first appeared as a 40-point favorite and has ticked to 39.5, a half-point drift toward Chicago State. The total has held at 149.5.
Tempo is the hinge for both numbers. Chicago State played at one of the slowest paces in the country last season, 324th in possessions per game, while Texas sat near the middle of the pack. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for a blowout to stretch, and a deliberate Cougars offense could drain clock even while trailing badly.
The last meeting offers a hint of the ceiling: Texas won 105-58 in Austin in November 2024. Both rosters have turned over almost completely since, so treat that as background rather than a template.
What to watch:
- How often Texas feeds Vokietaitis in the first 10 minutes
- Whether Chicago State's pressure rattles Goosby and Johnson
- Clark's status and how deep Miller goes into his bench in the second half
Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns line movement and odds
| Book | Cougars ML | Longhorns ML | Cougars spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +41.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +40.5 (-114) | o149.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +40.5 (-108) | o149.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +40.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +40000 | -100000 | +40.5 (-107) | o149.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +8000 | -100000 | +40.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +40.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago St Cougars: 90% of bets, 1% of the money; Texas Longhorns: 11% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Texas Longhorns -40.5: 71% of bets, 92% of the money; Chicago St Cougars +40.5: 29% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 46% of bets, 13% of the money; Under 149.5: 54% of bets, 87% of the money.
Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns stats (this season)
| Stat | Chicago St Cougars | Texas Longhorns |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 100.0 (321st of 365) | 124.8 (16th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 118.7 (336th of 365) | 104.9 (95th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -18.7 (337th of 365) | 19.8 (37th of 365) |
Key players
- Matas Vokietaitis (Texas): The lone returning starter averaged 15.6 points on 61.7% shooting last season.
- Isaiah Johnson (Texas): He scored 16.9 points per game at Colorado last season and is projected to start with Lewis out.
- David Punch (Texas): Punch blocked 1.9 shots per game at TCU last season while starting all 34 games.
- Armari Carraway (Chicago State): He made 44 threes at Charleston Southern last season, the most of any incoming Cougar.
- Bryan Akanmu (Chicago State): Akanmu averaged 6.2 points on 48.2% shooting at Wagner last season.
- Malek Robinson (Chicago State): The Cougars' leading returner averaged 1.8 steals in 15.4 minutes last season.
Numbers that matter
| Chicago State opponent 2-point % | 59.8% | Ranked 365th of 365 last season, an open lane for Vokietaitis. |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago State returning minutes | 7.7% | Almost nothing from last season's roster carries over, weakening last year's numbers as a guide. |
| Chicago State forced turnover rate | 20.5% | Ranked 31st last season and the Cougars' best tool against a Texas backcourt missing Mikey Lewis. |
| Texas spread | -39.5 | Moved a half point toward Chicago State from the first line of 40. |
| Total | 149.5 | Unchanged since first posted, with Chicago State's slow pace a drag on possessions. |
Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns: quick answers
Who is favored in Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns?
Texas is favored by 40.5 points (Texas -40.5).
What is the over/under for Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Where is Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns played?
Moody Center, Austin, TX.
Has the line moved for Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns?
No: Chicago St Cougars has stayed at +40.5, and the total is still 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Chicago St Cougars vs Texas Longhorns?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago St Cougars: 90% of bets, 1% of the money; Texas Longhorns: 11% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Texas Longhorns -40.5: 71% of bets, 92% of the money; Chicago St Cougars +40.5: 29% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 46% of bets, 13% of the money; Under 149.5: 54% of bets, 87% of the money.