Chattanooga Mocs vs Louisville Cardinals prediction: Louisville's portal-built Cardinals open against the Mocs who beat them

A team built from the portal

Louisville spent the offseason replacing nearly an entire team, and tonight the new one plays for real. Pat Kelsey's third Cardinals team returns just 11.4% of last season's minutes. The last time Chattanooga came to the KFC Yum! Center, in November 2023, the Mocs left with an 81-71 win.

Adrian Wooley is the only returner who played a real role a year ago, averaging 8.7 points. The core is gone, including Ryan Conwell and his 18.8 points per game. In its place is a transfer class led by preseason All-ACC picks Flory Bidunga (Kansas) and Jackson Shelstad (Oregon). That makes last season's adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) a loose guide. It ranked Louisville 17th of 365, but most of the players behind that number have left.

Two other transfers spent the fall in court. Seth Trimble, who scored 14.0 points per game at North Carolina last season, and LJ Wells were declared ineligible in early October. In mid-October a Jefferson Circuit Court judge granted both a temporary injunction that blocks the NCAA from barring them this season. The case is still ongoing. Karter Knox is back from offseason knee surgery and played 12 minutes off the bench in the exhibition win over Kansas. The staff says the knee is healthy but that Knox is still regaining trust in it. Louisville comes in ranked 11th in the AP poll.

Bidunga and the paint

Bidunga is the clearest mismatch on the floor. At Kansas last season he shot 64% from the field and blocked 2.6 shots per game. He is a rim finisher and a rim protector, and Chattanooga has little history of making that hard on anyone.

The Mocs ranked 349th in offensive rebound rate last season (the share of their own misses they recover), so most possessions end with one shot. With Bidunga guarding the basket, a missed layup is often the end of the trip. On the other end, Chattanooga's defense ranked 330th in efficiency and rarely forced mistakes. Its forced turnover rate ranked 334th, which means Louisville's new guards should get a clean night to learn each other's habits. Both rosters have turned over, but those weaknesses were part of the program's identity under Dan Earl, now in his fifth season.

Chattanooga's shooters are new too

Chattanooga also rebuilt, returning 22.9% of last season's minutes and adding 11 newcomers to a 17-man roster. The biggest loss is Jordan Frison, who left for Wichita State after averaging 16.4 points with a 129 offensive rating.

The new scoring load likely falls on Tyler Houser, who scored 14.2 points per game at Delaware last season and shot 38.3% from three. Tate Darner is the main holdover. He shot 37.9% from deep in 27.5 minutes a night. Last season's Mocs lived on the perimeter, ranking 13th in 3-point attempt rate. They also took care of the ball, ranking 46th in turnover rate. If the new group keeps both habits, it has a realistic way to keep the margin under four touchdowns: make enough threes and avoid the live-ball turnovers that fuel Louisville runs.

The number keeps climbing

The market has pushed toward Louisville. The spread opened at -29.5 in our feed and now sits at -31.5, and the total rose from 156 to 159.25.

Tempo is part of the debate on the total. Last season Louisville played fast, ranking 44th in pace, while Chattanooga ranked 301st. Louisville also ranked 4th in 3-point attempt rate, so both teams want a perimeter game, and lots of threes means a wide range of outcomes. With a 31.5-point spread, garbage-time minutes from Louisville's deep bench will likely shape the final margin as much as the starters do.

What to watch

• Whether Trimble and Wells start or come off the bench in their first game that counts.
• Knox's minutes, after his 12 against Kansas.
• Chattanooga's 3-point volume early. A slow, shot-heavy first half is the Mocs' best path to keeping it close.
• Bidunga's blocks and how often Chattanooga stops attacking the rim.