Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks prediction: UL Monroe starts over from zero as Ryan Cross debuts against Central Michigan
The Warhawks bring back almost nothing from a 4-28 team, so the market is pricing a new coach and a roster of strangers against a Chippewas core that at least knows each other.
| Spread | Central Michigan -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151.5 |
- Central Michigan's returning guards should steady an opener against a UL Monroe roster assembled from JUCO products and transfers under a first-year coach.
- Phat Phat Brooks running Central Michigan's offense against ULM's new backcourt, led by former UAB guard Quaran McPherson.
- Central Michigan is a 3-point favorite, up from 2.5 when our feed first saw the game; ULM returns 0.1% of last season's minutes.
Ryan Cross starts from scratch
Most season openers come with some kind of baseline. This one barely has one. UL Monroe returns 0.1% of last season's minutes, which means the team that takes the floor in Monroe tonight shares almost nothing with the one that went 4-28 a year ago. The coach is new too. Ryan Cross was named the program's ninth head coach on March 25, replacing Phil Cunningham, and he rebuilt the roster around junior college products and a pair of UAB transfers.
The departures explain why last season's numbers say so little. Leading scorer Krystian Lewis (18.4 points per game) left for Tulane, and MJ Russell went to Stephen F. Austin. Treat last season's adjusted defense, 358th of 365 nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, as a portrait of a team that no longer exists.
What Cross does have is a group of guards who were role players elsewhere. Quaran McPherson was efficient in limited minutes at UAB, with a 51.2% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure in which threes count 1.5 times). Khalil London carried a 26.2% usage rate at Tennessee State, so he is used to taking shots. JUCO transfer Phillip Tillman is also on the roster, and Robert Cowherd (from Southern Miss) and Jean Yvens Lafleur have been reported as additions. Nobody, including the betting market, has seen this group play a meaningful game together.
Central Michigan's familiar core
The Chippewas aren't a polished product either. The MAC's coaches picked them 12th in a 12-team league after a 10-21 season, 6-12 in conference play, in Andy Bronkema's first year. But they return 39.7% of last season's minutes, and that continuity is the clearest edge in this game.
Bronkema has named Phat Phat Brooks and Keenan Garner as the team's leaders. Brooks is the engine: 11.0 points and 3.9 assists per game last season, though he made just 6 of 34 threes, so defenses can sag off him. Garner is the frontcourt glue at 5.5 rebounds per game. Jaxson Whitaker gives them a perimeter threat after hitting 40 threes last season, and Kansas City transfer Jayson Petty adds a starter's experience after scoring 11.1 points a game there.
The losses are real. Center Nathan Claerbaut blocked 2.1 shots per game, and Logan McIntire hit 80 threes at 40.4%. Neither is on this roster.
Old habits worth watching
Two of last season's weaknesses for Central Michigan could matter against an unfamiliar opponent. The Chippewas turned it over on 19.0% of possessions, 314th nationally, and they finished 330th in defensive rebound percentage, the share of opponents' misses a defense secures.
Brooks returns as the primary ball handler, so ball security is the one problem that carries over most directly. A new ULM team will probably make its share of early-season mistakes. If Central Michigan can avoid matching them giveaway for giveaway, its experience should show. The rim protection is the bigger unknown: last season's block rate ranked 55th, and much of it left with Claerbaut.
Where the number sits
Central Michigan is a 3-point road favorite, with the moneyline at -155. The spread was 2.5 when our feed first recorded it, and the move has come toward the Chippewas across 10 books. The total has held at 153.5.
That total assumes plenty of scoring, a reasonable read for two teams that ranked in the bottom third nationally in defensive efficiency last season, though ULM's rebuild makes its side of that assumption a guess. The only recent meeting, a 74-64 ULM win at Central Michigan in November 2023, involved rosters that have long since turned over. This is a MAC-SBC Challenge game and the opener for both programs, and ULM faces a crowded early schedule that includes several back-to-backs.
Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks line movement and odds
| Book | Chippewas ML | Warhawks ML | Chippewas spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 | -2.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -155 | +125 | -2.5 (-112) | o151.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | -162 | +136 | -3.5 (-102) | o151.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -155 | +135 | -3.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 | -2.5 (-120) | o152 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -146 | +122 | -2.5 (-112) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +125 | -2.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 | -3 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Central Michigan Chippewas: 62% of bets, 82% of the money; UL Monroe Warhawks: 39% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Central Michigan Chippewas -2.5: 92% of bets, 100% of the money; UL Monroe Warhawks +2.5: 8% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 80% of bets, 87% of the money; Under 151.5: 20% of bets, 13% of the money.
Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks stats (this season)
| Stat | Central Michigan Chippewas | UL Monroe Warhawks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 105.4 (236th of 365) | 100.4 (312th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 115.7 (297th of 365) | 122.9 (358th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -10.3 (277th of 365) | -22.5 (350th of 365) |
Key players
- Phat Phat Brooks (Central Michigan): Averaged 11.0 points and 3.9 assists last season but shot 17.6% from three.
- Keenan Garner (Central Michigan): Pulled down 5.5 rebounds per game last season and made 47.1% of his limited three-point tries.
- Jaxson Whitaker (Central Michigan): Hit 40 threes at a 34.5% clip last season as a reserve.
- Jayson Petty (Central Michigan): Started all 31 games at Kansas City last season and made 55 threes.
- Quaran McPherson (UL Monroe): Posted a 103.9 offensive rating in 10.8 minutes per game at UAB last season.
- Khalil London (UL Monroe): Carried a 26.2% usage rate at Tennessee State last season while scoring 6.5 points per game.
- Dayjaun Anderson (UL Monroe): Shot 24.1% from three on 133 attempts last season.
Numbers that matter
| ULM returning minutes | 0.1% | Essentially the entire roster is new under first-year coach Ryan Cross. |
|---|---|---|
| CMU returning minutes | 39.7% | Brooks, Garner and Whitaker give the Chippewas a familiar core. |
| Spread | Central Michigan -3 | Moved toward the Chippewas from 2.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
| Total | 153.5 | Unchanged since our feed first recorded it. |
| CMU turnover rate, last season | 19.0% | Ranked 314th nationally, a weakness that could carry over with the same lead guard. |
Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks: quick answers
Who is favored in Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks?
Central Michigan is favored by 3 points (Central Michigan -3).
What is the over/under for Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks?
The total is 151.5 points.
When is Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks played?
Fant-Ewing Coliseum, Monroe, LA.
Has the line moved for Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks?
Yes: Central Michigan Chippewas opened -4.5 and is now -2.5, and the total moved from 152.5 to 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Central Michigan Chippewas vs UL Monroe Warhawks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Central Michigan Chippewas: 62% of bets, 82% of the money; UL Monroe Warhawks: 39% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Central Michigan Chippewas -2.5: 92% of bets, 100% of the money; UL Monroe Warhawks +2.5: 8% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 80% of bets, 87% of the money; Under 151.5: 20% of bets, 13% of the money.