Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls prediction: Derrian Ford's return gives rebuilt Temple the edge over gutted Central Connecticut
Both rosters were remade over the summer, but only Temple kept its best scorer, and the market prices that gap at 15.5 points.
| Spread | Temple -14.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 144.5 |
- Temple leans on Ford and a portal-built rotation at home; both teams played slowly last season, with Central Connecticut searching for scorers.
- Derrian Ford against a Central Connecticut backcourt that lost nearly all its scoring and is led by low-usage returner James Jones.
- Temple sits at -15.5, up from -15; Central Connecticut returns only 22.2% of last season's points.
Who stayed, who left
Both programs spent the offseason starting over, and Monday's opener at the Liacouras Center is the first look at what they built. The rosters are similarly new: Temple returns 34.5% of last season's minutes, Central Connecticut 35.3%. The difference is whose minutes came back.
Temple kept Derrian Ford, the fifth-year guard who won his eligibility fight in September. He averaged 18.1 points last season and was named to the American's preseason all-conference second team. No injury news has surfaced, and he was practicing as of Sept. 10.
Central Connecticut kept almost none of its scoring, just 22.2% of last season's points. Darin Smith Jr., who averaged 20.7 points, is at Rutgers. Playmaker Jay Rodgers, who handed out 6.9 assists a game, went to Penn State. Max Frazier left for Hampton and sharpshooter Melo Sanchez for South Dakota. The most experienced Blue Devil is James Jones, who started 23 games last season but averaged 4.2 points. Patrick Sellers still has a program the NEC coaches picked third, so expectations stay high, but the offense has to be rebuilt from scratch.
Temple's portal rebuild
Adam Fisher has 10 newcomers and five returners, and as of Oct. 20 he had not named a starting lineup. The most proven shooter among the newcomers is Oregon State transfer Dez White, who hit 37.9% from three on a heavy volume last season. Edwin Suarez Jr. arrives from Weber State as a rebounding wing, and Jordan Marsh comes from USC.
Gavin Griffiths is the other anchor. He made 63 threes last season and added 1.8 blocks a game, a rare mix for a guard. Picked ninth in the American, Temple is not a conference favorite. Against an NEC roster this green, though, two returning all-conference players are a real edge in a first game.
The free-throw question
One tension from last season is worth watching. Temple earned free throws constantly: its free throw rate (attempts per field-goal attempt) was 40.8%, 47th nationally. Central Connecticut's defense was one of the best in the country at avoiding fouls, holding opponents to a 25.5% free throw rate, 11th of 365.
Most of the players behind those numbers are gone, so treat them as tendencies of the programs and their coaches rather than of these rosters. Ford is the one constant, and he shot 85.2% at the line last season. If Temple can get him downhill, a large lead gets easier to protect late.
Slow tempo, big number
Neither program likes to run. Last season Temple ranked 298th in pace and Central Connecticut 286th, both among the slowest in Division I. Fewer possessions make a big margin harder to reach, and the total has dipped from 144 to 143.5.
The spread went the other way, from Temple -15 to -15.5. Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put Temple 165th in net efficiency and Central Connecticut 299th. With both rosters rebuilt, those ratings are only a loose guide.
This is also the first meeting between the programs. The Blue Devils go on to Syracuse on Nov. 5, and Temple faces Richmond at the Palestra on Nov. 8.
Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls line movement and odds
| Book | Devils ML | Owls ML | Devils spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +750 | -1600 | +14.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | +750 | -1430 | +14.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +800 | -1350 | +14.5 (-108) | o144.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +900 | -1800 | +14.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +900 | -1500 | +14.5 (-110) | o145 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +860 | -1600 | +14.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +750 | -1400 | +14.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +800 | -1400 | +14.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls
On the Kalshi moneyline: Central Connecticut St Blue Devils: 59% of bets, 20% of the money; Temple Owls: 41% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Temple Owls -15.5: 54% of bets, 80% of the money; Central Connecticut St Blue Devils +15.5: 46% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 57% of bets, 94% of the money; Under 144.5: 43% of bets, 6% of the money.
Key players
- Derrian Ford (Temple): Averaged 18.1 points and shot 85.2% from the line last season.
- Gavin Griffiths (Temple): Made 63 threes and blocked 1.8 shots per game last season.
- Dez White (Temple): Hit 66 threes at 37.9% for Oregon State last season.
- James Jones (Central Connecticut): Started 23 games last season, averaging 4.2 points and 5.6 rebounds.
- Victor Payne (Central Connecticut): Made 41 threes at 37.6% last season at St. Francis.
- Roddy Jones (Central Connecticut): Shot 38.8% from three on 80 attempts off the bench last season.
Numbers that matter
| Temple spread | -15.5 | Moved toward Temple from -15 when our feed first saw the game. |
|---|---|---|
| CCSU returning points | 22.2% | The Blue Devils lost their top scorers to Rutgers, Penn State, Hampton and South Dakota. |
| Temple free throw rate, last season | 40.8% | Ranked 47th; Central Connecticut's defense allowed a rate that ranked 11th. |
| Total | 143.5 | Down from 144; both programs ranked in the bottom 80 in pace last season. |
Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls: quick answers
Who is favored in Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls?
Temple is favored by 14.5 points (Temple -14.5).
What is the over/under for Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls?
The total is 144.5 points.
When is Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls?
Yes: Central Connecticut St Blue Devils opened +15 and is now +14.5, and the total moved from 144 to 144.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Central Connecticut St Blue Devils vs Temple Owls?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Central Connecticut St Blue Devils: 59% of bets, 20% of the money; Temple Owls: 41% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Temple Owls -15.5: 54% of bets, 80% of the money; Central Connecticut St Blue Devils +15.5: 46% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 57% of bets, 94% of the money; Under 144.5: 43% of bets, 6% of the money.