Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd prediction: Buffalo opens with an almost brand-new roster in Huntington
Buffalo kept almost none of last season's production and Marshall kept a little, and a 1.5-point spread suggests that small difference counts for something.
| Spread | Marshall -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157 |
- Expect a feeling-out game between two rebuilt rosters, with Marshall's returning guard and home floor giving it a slight edge.
- Buffalo's transfer guards against Marshall's perimeter defense. The Bulls' new backcourt shot under 30% from three last season at its old schools.
- Marshall is a 1.5-point favorite, up from -1.25 when our feed first saw the game. Last season's final ratings separate the teams by 14 spots.
Buffalo starts from scratch
Season openers usually ask how much a team has changed. Buffalo's answer is almost completely. Players on this season's roster played just 3.6% of last season's minutes, and the Bulls bring back only 42 of the 2,497 points they scored a year ago.
The losses hurt most at the top of the roster. Ryan Sabol averaged 18.9 points and is now at Providence. Angelo Brizzi went to North Carolina. Those two powered a team that shot 38.4% from three last season, 13th in the country. With so few players back, last season's team numbers tell you about George Halcovage III's system more than about the players who will take the floor at the Cam Henderson Center tonight.
A backcourt with shooting doubts
Halcovage rebuilt through the transfer portal. Drew Steffe (Southern Illinois), Dylan Ducommun (Northern Illinois) and J.J. Starling (Syracuse) all started at their previous schools, so experience isn't the problem. Shooting might be. Steffe made 29.9% of his threes last season, and Ducommun made 28.9% on 190 attempts.
The frontcourt, which came together through two Tennessee State transfers, looks steadier. Jalen Pitre shot 62.3% from the field there last season. Antoine Lorick III blocked 1.4 shots a game and gives Buffalo some rim protection. If the new guards can't recreate last season's shooting, the Bulls will need these two to keep the offense going inside.
Marshall's small head start
Marshall also reshaped its roster. The Herd added 11 newcomers, nine of whom have college experience, and lost Jalen Speer and Wyatt Fricks, its two leading scorers. Still, Corny Jackson, now in his third season, kept more than Buffalo did. Players on Marshall's roster accounted for 25.7% of last season's minutes.
Most of that comes from Noah Otshudi, who averaged 14.5 points last season and made 84.5% of his free throws. Erich Harding and Bryce Slay are also back to provide some continuity. The most important newcomer may be Fazl Oshodi from Southern, who made 34.9% of his threes on 175 attempts and shot 93.5% at the line. Marshall's backcourt has an experienced shot creator and a proven shooter. Buffalo's backcourt is still trying to show it has either.
Tempo, the total and the line
Marshall played fast last season. Marshall averaged 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 48th nationally, while Buffalo played at 66.8, 223rd. If Marshall controls the pace at home, there will be more possessions and more chances for mistakes from a Buffalo lineup that has barely played together.
The total sits at 157, up slightly from 156.5, so the market expects a fast game and a lot of scoring. The spread has moved a little toward Marshall, from -1.25 to -1.5. That is a small move, but it fits last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), which ranked Marshall 183rd and Buffalo 197th. Those ratings describe rosters that mostly no longer exist, so treat them as a loose starting point. Marshall leads the all-time series 10-5 and gets a short turnaround before hosting Toledo on Nov. 7.
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd line movement and odds
| Book | Bulls ML | Herd ML | Bulls spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 | +2.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +128 | -159 | +2.5 (-107) | o155.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 | +2.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 | +2.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 | +2.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +118 | -142 | +2.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -160 | +2.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +126 | -150 | +2.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd
On the Kalshi moneyline: Buffalo Bulls: 31% of bets, 24% of the money; Marshall Thundering Herd: 69% of bets, 76% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Marshall Thundering Herd -1.5: 71% of bets, 75% of the money; Buffalo Bulls +1.5: 29% of bets, 25% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 157.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd stats (this season)
| Stat | Buffalo Bulls | Marshall Thundering Herd |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 112.5 (111th of 365) | 111.8 (119th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 114.9 (286th of 365) | 113.4 (258th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -2.4 (197th of 365) | -1.5 (183rd of 365) |
Key players
- Drew Steffe (Buffalo): He started all 32 games at Southern Illinois last season but shot 29.9% from three.
- Dylan Ducommun (Buffalo): He had a 24% usage rate at Northern Illinois last season, so he should handle a lot of the offense.
- J.J. Starling (Buffalo): He averaged 10.9 points in 30 starts at Syracuse last season.
- Antoine Lorick III (Buffalo): He blocked 1.4 shots per game at Tennessee State last season.
- Noah Otshudi (Marshall): He averaged 14.5 points in 31 starts last season, more than any other returning player.
- Fazl Oshodi (Marshall): He made 61 threes and shot 93.5% from the line at Southern last season.
- Erich Harding (Marshall): He shot 62.8% from the field in 14.3 minutes per game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Buffalo returning minutes | 3.6% | Buffalo returns almost none of last season's minutes, so its 2025-26 team stats tell you little about this roster. |
|---|---|---|
| Marshall returning minutes | 25.7% | Marshall returns far more than Buffalo, with Noah Otshudi accounting for most of it. |
| Marshall pace last season | 70.7 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 48th nationally, which helps explain a total of 157. |
| Spread | -1.5 | Marshall's line has moved up from -1.25 when our feed first saw the game. |
| Total | 157 | Up slightly from 156.5, a sign the market expects a fast-paced game. |
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd: quick answers
Who is favored in Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd?
Marshall is favored by 2.5 points (Marshall -2.5).
What is the over/under for Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd?
The total is 157 points.
When is Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd played?
Cam Henderson Center, Huntington, WV.
Has the line moved for Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd?
Yes: Buffalo Bulls opened +3 and is now +2.5, and the total is still 155.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Buffalo Bulls: 31% of bets, 24% of the money; Marshall Thundering Herd: 69% of bets, 76% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Marshall Thundering Herd -1.5: 71% of bets, 75% of the money; Buffalo Bulls +1.5: 29% of bets, 25% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 157.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.