Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins prediction: Pharrel Payne's comeback leads Maryland's rebuilt roster against Bucknell
Two programs that each brought back about a third of their minutes or less open in College Park, and Maryland's healthy big man is the clearest edge on the floor.
| Spread | Maryland -31 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148 |
- Maryland's size and transfer shooting should control a Bucknell team rebuilding around guards, with the 31.5-point spread asking how long the Terps keep pressing.
- Payne inside against a Bucknell defense whose block rate ranked 347th last season, with Tomislav Buljan crashing the glass beside him.
- Maryland is favored by 31.5, down from 32 when our feed first saw it; the Terps return only 24.5% of last season's minutes.
Payne returns to the paint
Maryland's season starts with the player it has waited the longest to see. Pharrel Payne's last season lasted only 10 games before a knee injury ended it. In that stretch he averaged 17.5 points and shot 62.4% from the floor.
He received an NCAA medical waiver and was described as fully cleared in early October. He showed it in the exhibition schedule. Maryland beat West Virginia 90-81 in overtime on Oct. 18, and Payne and Andre Mills combined for 53 points.
Bucknell is poorly built to stop him. The Bison's block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) ranked 347th of 365 last season. Their minutes-weighted height comes in at 74.1 inches against Maryland's 77.9. Freshmen Ludvik Bergseng, Danny Kennard and Ethan Marten-Coney arrive as the size additions, but none has played a college minute.
Buljan, named a starter in a Nov. 1 preview, adds another body. He pulled down 10.3 rebounds a game at New Mexico last season.
Transfer shooters, open looks
Buzz Williams spent his second offseason rebuilding the roster around proven shooters. Mike McNair Jr. made 44.4% of his threes at Boston University last season while scoring 16.9 points a game. Maban Jabriel hit 43.2% from deep at Queens.
That matches up with Bucknell's worst habit last season. The Bison let opponents shoot 37.0% from three, 354th in Division I, and allowed threes at the 25th-highest rate. The caveat is real: Bucknell has turned over most of that roster, so last season's defense is a loose guide. But a rebuilt Patriot League team opening on the road at a Big Ten arena will have to prove it can close out on shooters in its first game together.
Bucknell starts over again
John Griffin III added 11 new players to six veteran returnees. Only 34.7% of last season's minutes and 24.5% of its points are back. The biggest loss is Amon Dorries, who averaged 16.2 points and is now at Richmond.
What remains is a guard group. Jayden Williams started every game at point guard last season but shot 31% from three. Aleksander Pachucki was the more efficient shooter at 35.9%. Northeastern transfer Luca Soroa Schaller adds a ball handler. The Patriot League preseason poll slotted Bucknell sixth, and last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 334th.
A big number, barely moving
Maryland is favored by 31.5, a half point below the 32 our feed first recorded. The total sits at 147.5, nudged down from 148. The last meeting in College Park, in November 2024, ended Maryland 91, Bucknell 67.
The market is pricing a Maryland team that barely resembles last season's. The Terps return only 24.5% of last season's minutes, so last season's ratings say little about this group. One loose end: Bishop Boswell was the lone Terp who didn't suit up against West Virginia, and Maryland gave no reason. A Nov. 1 preview otherwise called the team nearly fully healthy, and freshman Kaden House scored in double figures in each exhibition.
Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins line movement and odds
| Book | Bison ML | Terrapins ML | Bison spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +31.5 (-115) | o148.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +31.5 (-114) | o147.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +31.5 (-115) | o148.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +31.5 (-115) | o148.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +5000 | -20000 | +31 (-110) | o148 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +8000 | -100000 | +31.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +31.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +31 (-110) | o148 (-110) |
Where the money is on Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bucknell Bison: 93% of bets, 3% of the money; Maryland Terrapins: 7% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Maryland Terrapins -31.5: 43% of bets, 62% of the money; Bucknell Bison +31.5: 57% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 80% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 147.5: 20% of bets, 3% of the money.
Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins stats (this season)
| Stat | Bucknell Bison | Maryland Terrapins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 97.1 (340th of 365) | 110.8 (139th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 115.3 (291st of 365) | 107.6 (140th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -18.2 (334th of 365) | 3.2 (131st of 365) |
Key players
- Pharrel Payne (Maryland): Averaged 17.5 points on 62.4% shooting in 10 games last season before a knee injury.
- Mike McNair Jr. (Maryland): Shot 44.4% from three at Boston University last season while averaging 16.9 points.
- Tomislav Buljan (Maryland): Averaged 10.3 rebounds at New Mexico last season and was named a starter in a Nov. 1 preview.
- Andre Mills (Maryland): Averaged 12.2 points last season and helped carry the West Virginia exhibition with Payne.
- Jayden Williams (Bucknell): Started 33 games last season and handed out 4.0 assists a game, but shot 31% from three.
- Aleksander Pachucki (Bucknell): Bucknell's best returning shooter, making 35.9% of his threes last season.
- Luca Soroa Schaller (Bucknell): Averaged 5.6 points and 2.2 assists at Northeastern last season.
Numbers that matter
| Spread | -31.5 | Maryland's line, a half point below the 32 first seen in our feed. |
|---|---|---|
| Bucknell block rate rank, last season | 347th | Little rim protection to slow Payne inside. |
| Bucknell opponent 3-point %, last season | 37.0% | Ranked 354th, a weakness Maryland's transfer shooters can test. |
| Maryland returning minutes | 24.5% | Last season's Maryland numbers describe a mostly departed roster. |
| McNair 3-point %, last season | 44.4% | Made at Boston University, the headline shooting addition. |
Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins: quick answers
Who is favored in Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins?
Maryland is favored by 31 points (Maryland -31).
What is the over/under for Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins?
The total is 148 points.
When is Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins played?
XFINITY Center, College Park, MD.
Has the line moved for Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins?
Yes: Bucknell Bison opened +32 and is now +31.5, and the total moved from 148 to 148.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Bucknell Bison vs Maryland Terrapins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bucknell Bison: 93% of bets, 3% of the money; Maryland Terrapins: 7% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Maryland Terrapins -31.5: 43% of bets, 62% of the money; Bucknell Bison +31.5: 57% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 80% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 147.5: 20% of bets, 3% of the money.