Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats prediction: Northwestern unveils its transfer-built roster against Quigley's Binghamton
Almost nothing about last season's Wildcats remains, so the 22-plus-point spread rests on transfers who have never played a Big Ten game together.
| Spread | Northwestern -20.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Northwestern's bigger, deeper transfer class should wear down Binghamton, but a brand-new rotation that lost an exhibition 94-59 can still play loose.
- Jeremiah Quigley's drives against Northwestern's new frontcourt of 6-10 transfers and a 7-3 freshman decides whether Binghamton gets to the line.
- Northwestern is favored by 20.5 after first showing at -23. Last season's adjusted net ratings ranked Northwestern 60th and Binghamton 360th.
A roster built from scratch
Northwestern spent the offseason replacing nearly an entire team. Tonight in Evanston it finds out what the new one looks like when the games count, against a Binghamton program picked third in the America East that brings back both of its preseason all-conference players.
Only 21.8% of last season's minutes return for the Wildcats. Captains Angelo Ciaravino and Jake West plus Phoenix Gill are the only holdovers. Chris Collins brought in 11 newcomers, the most in program history. Nick Martinelli, last season's scoring engine, went to the Clippers in the draft.
The new scoring comes from mid-major stars. Jack Karasinski averaged 21.7 points at Bellarmine last season. Colin Smith started every game at UC Santa Barbara, and Luke McEldon was a fixture inside at Mount St. Mary's. The preseason sent a warning, though. Northwestern lost its exhibition to No. 18 Iowa State 94-59, and West, not a transfer, led the team in both exhibitions.
Shooters against a soft perimeter
Binghamton's defense got hurt from deep last season. Opponents made 35.7% of their threes, which ranked 307th of 365. Karasinski made 41.5% of his threes at Bellarmine, and Smith hit 40.5% at UCSB.
That pairing changes Northwestern's shape. Last season's Wildcats ranked 295th in 3-point attempt rate (the share of shots taken from deep), but that profile belonged to a roster that is gone. If Karasinski and Smith get clean looks early, the gap on the scoreboard can open quickly. Binghamton also lost its best shooter, Jackson Benigni, which thins out the Bearcats' ability to answer.
Quigley, the line and the size gap
Binghamton returns 36.6% of its minutes, more than its host but still a reshuffled group. Jeremiah Quigley ran everything last season, averaging 6.4 assists, and he pulled out of the transfer portal to come back. He scores by attacking, not shooting: he made just 17.4% of his threes.
That style fit the team. The Bearcats posted a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 41.7% last season, 32nd nationally. Demetrius Lilley, whose season ended in December, is listed as healthy and gives Quigley a second scorer. Evan Ashe is expected to start, his first start since Jan. 25, 2025. Health is the larger theme: Binghamton missed 174 player-games to injury or illness last season, second-most nationally.
The drives will run into length. Northwestern adds 6-10 transfers Ryan Soulis and McEldon plus 7-3 freshman Symon Ghai, and its minutes-weighted average height sits at 79.2 inches against Binghamton's 76.1.
A big number on a slow night
A big number on a slow night Northwestern is a 20.5-point favorite, down from -23 when our feed first saw the game. The total has gone the other way, to 146.5 from 145.
That total sits high for two teams that played slowly last season: Binghamton ranked 319th in pace and Northwestern 324th. Both rosters have changed enough that those tempos may not carry over. The spread leans on the gap in last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Those ratings describe a Northwestern team that no longer exists, so the price is really a bet on how fast this transfer class comes together.
Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Bearcats ML | Wildcats ML | Bearcats spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1250 | -3000 | +18.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +21.5 (-120) | o146.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +1300 | -2800 | +18.5 (-112) | o146.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +1500 | -5000 | +18.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1800 | -4000 | +18.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +21.5 (-120) | o146.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: Binghamton Bearcats: 71% of bets, 12% of the money; Northwestern Wildcats: 29% of bets, 88% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northwestern Wildcats -19.5: 39% of bets, 5% of the money; Binghamton Bearcats +19.5: 62% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 50% of bets, 8% of the money; Under 145.5: 50% of bets, 92% of the money.
Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats stats (this season)
| Stat | Binghamton Bearcats | Northwestern Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 96.9 (342nd of 365) | 117.6 (63rd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 123.7 (359th of 365) | 103.9 (79th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -26.8 (360th of 365) | 13.7 (60th of 365) |
Key players
- Jack Karasinski (Northwestern): He averaged 21.7 points and shot 41.5% from three at Bellarmine last season.
- Colin Smith (Northwestern): He scored 11.9 points per game and made 40.5% of his threes for UCSB last season.
- Luke McEldon (Northwestern): He shot 64.5% from the field last season but only 42.1% at the free throw line.
- Jake West (Northwestern): He made 36.4% of his threes last season and led the team in both exhibitions.
- Jeremiah Quigley (Binghamton): He averaged 14.5 points and 6.4 assists last season while playing 37.1 minutes a night.
- Demetrius Lilley (Binghamton): He averaged 14.6 points and 9.4 rebounds in 11 games before last season's injury.
- KiJan Robinson (Binghamton): He scored 10.7 points per game at New Hampshire last season.
- Jake Blackburn (Binghamton): He made 39.5% of his threes last season in a reserve role.
Numbers that matter
| Northwestern returning minutes | 21.8% | Only three players remain from last season, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Binghamton opponent 3-point % | 307th | Last season's perimeter defense was among the nation's weakest, a problem against Northwestern's transfer shooters. |
| Binghamton free throw rate | 32nd | The Bearcats lived at the line last season, and Quigley's drives are how they get there. |
| Spread | -22.75 | Northwestern first showed at -23, a small move toward Binghamton. |
| Total | 146.5 | Up from 145 despite both teams ranking in the bottom 50 in pace last season. |
Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats: quick answers
Who is favored in Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats?
Northwestern is favored by 20.5 points (Northwestern -20.5).
What is the over/under for Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats played?
Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL.
Has the line moved for Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats?
Yes: Binghamton Bearcats opened +23.5 and is now +18.5, and the total moved from 145.5 to 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Binghamton Bearcats vs Northwestern Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Binghamton Bearcats: 71% of bets, 12% of the money; Northwestern Wildcats: 29% of bets, 88% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northwestern Wildcats -19.5: 39% of bets, 5% of the money; Binghamton Bearcats +19.5: 62% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 50% of bets, 8% of the money; Under 145.5: 50% of bets, 92% of the money.