Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction: Tyler Tanner and a remade Vanderbilt test Bellarmine's last-ranked perimeter defense
No. 24 Vanderbilt opens with a mostly new rotation against a Bellarmine defense that couldn't guard the three last season, and the market expects a rout.
| Spread | Vanderbilt -36.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 159 |
- Vanderbilt should get good looks from deep all night; the open question is how cleanly a mostly new rotation turns them into points.
- Ace Glass and Tyler Tanner shooting from the perimeter against a Bellarmine defense that let opponents hit 39.7% from three last season.
- Vanderbilt is favored by 35.5, up from 32, and the total climbed to 159.5 against a Bellarmine defense that ranked 365th of 365 last season.
A season of firsts in Nashville
Vanderbilt enters a season ranked for the first time since 2015-16, and its first game that counts comes against the worst defense in the country from a year ago. Bellarmine finished last season with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 126.0 points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents, which ranked 365th of 365.
The question for tonight's 7 p.m. ET tip at Memorial Gymnasium isn't really who wins. It's how much a rebuilt Commodores rotation can do with the room Bellarmine tends to give, and whether that's enough to clear a 35.5-point spread.
Threes against little resistance
Bellarmine's defensive trouble started at the arc. Opponents shot 39.7% from three against the Knights last season, dead last nationally, and they kept taking them: 50.4% of opponents' shots were threes, the 4th-highest rate in Division I. Teams found out quickly that the perimeter was open and never stopped going there.
Vanderbilt has the shooters to keep that up. Tyler Nickel and his 110 made threes are gone, but Ace Glass arrives from Washington State, where he averaged 16.4 points and made 71 of 195 attempts. Glass is expected to start at shooting guard. Tyler Tanner, who shot 36.8% from deep last season, gives the Commodores a second guard who can punish a defense that's late to close out.
A rotation built over the summer
Byington's roster carries over just 25.4% of last season's minutes. Only three players return, and Tanner is the one who matters. He came back from the NBA draft process after averaging 19.5 points and 2.4 steals, and he was named to the preseason All-SEC first team.
The pieces around him are still being fitted together. Byington hasn't settled on a starting five. Returning sophomore Chandler Bing scored 18 in the exhibition loss at Miami, a sign the bench has some punch. T.O. Barrett and freshman Gabe Nesmith both warmed up before that game but didn't play. They were described afterward as trending toward playing in the opener, though Vanderbilt hasn't confirmed it.
Bellarmine has rebuilding of its own to do. Jack Karasinski, who scored 21.7 points a game, left for Northwestern. Kenyon Goodin, who shot 41.8% from three while starting all 31 games, is expected to take on a bigger role. The Knights' release named no injuries or absences.
Where Bellarmine can keep it closer
If the Knights stay within the number, it will likely be at the foul line. Bellarmine made 79.2% of its free throws last season, 4th in the country. Vanderbilt's defense was foul-prone, ranking 304th in opponent free throw rate, which measures free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
The glass offers less hope. Bellarmine rebounded only 23.1% of its own misses last season, so second chances won't make up for empty possessions. To hang around, the Knights need efficient half-court trips from Goodin and Sam Donald, plus a steady stream of points at the line.
What the number says
Our feed first saw Vanderbilt at -32, and it has moved to -35.5. The total has risen more sharply, from 156.5 to 159.5. Neither team played fast last season: Bellarmine ranked 275th in pace and Vanderbilt 283rd. That climb is a bet on efficiency rather than possessions, built on a Bellarmine defense that rarely got stops.
With the only data coming from last season, both teams' numbers come with heavy roster caveats. Vanderbilt's new arrivals in particular could make last season's team profile a poor guide.
Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores line movement and odds
| Book | Knights ML | Commodores ML | Knights spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +36.5 (-115) | o158.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +36.5 (-112) | o159.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +36.5 (-105) | o158.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +37.5 (-115) | o158.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +8000 | -50000 | +36.5 (-115) | o159 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +8000 | -100000 | +36.5 (-110) | o159.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +36.5 (-110) | o159.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +36.5 (-110) | o159 (-110) |
Where the money is on Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bellarmine Knights: 89% of bets, 1% of the money; Vanderbilt Commodores: 11% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vanderbilt Commodores -36.5: 74% of bets, 87% of the money; Bellarmine Knights +36.5: 26% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 36% of bets, 35% of the money; Under 159.5: 64% of bets, 65% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Vanderbilt Commodores (1 wallet, $10). Largest: Gigantic-Intelligence $10 on Vanderbilt Commodores.
Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores stats (this season)
| Stat | Bellarmine Knights | Vanderbilt Commodores |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 115.3 (80th of 365) | 127.1 (7th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 126.0 (365th of 365) | 99.6 (32nd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -10.7 (280th of 365) | 27.5 (16th of 365) |
Key players
- Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt): Averaged 19.5 points, 5.1 assists and 2.4 steals last season and is one of only three Commodores back.
- Ace Glass (Vanderbilt): Made 71 of 195 threes and averaged 16.4 points as a freshman at Washington State.
- Chandler Bing (Vanderbilt): Scored 18 in the exhibition at Miami after playing 14.9 minutes a game off the bench last season.
- Kenyon Goodin (Bellarmine): Started all 31 games last season and shot 41.8% from three with an 87.3% free throw mark.
- Sam Donald (Bellarmine): Started 29 of 30 games as a freshman and made 42.1% of his threes.
- Tyler Doyle (Bellarmine): Led Bellarmine's returners with 3.8 assists per game last season at a 19.9% usage rate.
Numbers that matter
| Bellarmine adjusted defense rank, last season | 365th | The Knights allowed 126.0 adjusted points per 100 possessions, last in Division I. |
|---|---|---|
| Bellarmine opponent 3-point %, last season | 39.7% | Dead last nationally, and opponents took threes at the 4th-highest rate in the country. |
| Vanderbilt returning minutes | 25.4% | Only three players return, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide for the Commodores. |
| Spread | -32.5 | Vanderbilt moved up from -32 when our feed first saw the game. |
| Total | 158.5 | Up from 156.5, even though Bellarmine ranked 275th and Vanderbilt 283rd in pace last season. |
Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores: quick answers
Who is favored in Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Vanderbilt is favored by 36.5 points (Vanderbilt -36.5).
What is the over/under for Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
The total is 159 points.
When is Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores played?
Memorial Gymnasium (TN), Nashville, TN.
Has the line moved for Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Yes: Bellarmine Knights opened +32 and is now +36.5, and the total moved from 156.5 to 158.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bellarmine Knights: 89% of bets, 1% of the money; Vanderbilt Commodores: 11% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vanderbilt Commodores -36.5: 74% of bets, 87% of the money; Bellarmine Knights +36.5: 26% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 36% of bets, 35% of the money; Under 159.5: 64% of bets, 65% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Vanderbilt Commodores (1 wallet, $10). Largest: Gigantic-Intelligence $10 on Vanderbilt Commodores. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.