American Eagles vs Cincinnati Bearcats prediction: MJ Collins and 14 Bearcat newcomers debut against a veteran American

A roster built from scratch

Jerrod Calhoun's first Cincinnati team has 14 newcomers. The only returner, Grant Darbyshire, averaged 1.9 minutes across seven games last season. That turns last season's Bearcat profile into a record of players who are gone. Last season's defense ranked 14th nationally in adjusted efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), but Baba Miller has left and Moustapha Thiam is now at Michigan.

Replacing them is a stack of guards who carried mid-major offenses. MJ Collins Jr. scored 17.5 points per game at Utah State last season. He posted a 58.2% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times). Javontae Campbell averaged 18.7 points and 3.0 steals at Bowling Green, and Tyler Tejada scored 17.7 a night at Towson.

Collins is the headline. A court ruled him ineligible in early October. An Ohio executive order then reopened the door, though questions were raised about whether the order can be enforced. He played in the final exhibition against Oakland, around Oct. 31, and scored 22 points with a team-best plus-minus of 33. Myles Colvin hit five threes in that game. Tylen Riley, who scored 15.0 a game at Tulsa last season, is murkier: a hand injury was reported over the summer, and Cincinnati hasn't given a public update since.

American's continuity edge

American is the Patriot League preseason favorite after collecting nine first-place votes, and it returns its top three scorers. Madden Collins led the Eagles at 13.4 points per game. Greg Jones averaged 12.5 and was named the league's Preseason Defensive Player of the Year.

That profile is built on volume from deep. American took 46.1% of its shots from three, 46th-most in the country, but made only 33.3% of them. A hot night from the perimeter is the clearest path to a closer game, and it also pushes the scoring up. Last season's final adjusted ratings still put American 246th nationally, far behind Cincinnati at 48th, though Cincinnati's roster has turned over almost completely.

Where Cincinnati should feast

American's defense gave up plenty around the rim last season. Its block rate of 4.5% ranked 362nd of 365, and opponents shot 54.0% on twos, 297th nationally. The Eagles also fouled a lot: their opponent free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) ranked 321st.

That suits a Cincinnati backcourt that wants to attack. Tejada shot 88.2% at the line at Towson last season, and Riley made 87.1% at Tulsa. Size won't be the weapon. By minutes-weighted average height, the Bearcats are 77.7 inches to American's 77.9, so the edge has to come from quickness and shot creation rather than bulk.

American's counterpunch is active hands. The Eagles forced turnovers on 19.6% of possessions last season, 50th nationally. A rotation playing its first game that counts could hand back some cheap points early.

Reading the number

Cincinnati is a 24.5-point favorite, with a total of 151.0 across nine books. The spread was 25.5 when it first appeared Sunday, so it has moved toward American, while the total rose from 148.5. Both moves fit a market that respects American's experience and its three-point volume, and that is wary of laying a huge number with a team built entirely from transfers.

The history is thin. The programs have met once, a 72-69 Cincinnati win in 1991.

What to watch - Whether Collins starts and how quickly the guards share the ball. - Cincinnati's free-throw attempts against a foul-prone defense. - American's early three-point volume and whether it keeps the margin manageable.