Abilene Christian Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes prediction: Colorado's rebuilt Buffs open against Abilene Christian's turnover machine

Chaos with a new cast

Brette Tanner's Abilene Christian teams make opponents uncomfortable, and last season was no exception. The Wildcats forced turnovers on 23.6% of opponent possessions, third in Division I, and their steal rate ranked fifth. Colorado opens Tad Boyle's 17th season with a roster picked 14th of 16 in the Big 12, and the first question in Boulder is whether a rebuilt group can hold onto the ball.

The catch is that almost none of the Wildcats who created that pressure are back. Abilene Christian returns 22.2% of last season's minutes. Tanner, entering his sixth year, brings the system. The hands are new.

Colorado protected the ball well last season, turning it over on 14.8% of possessions, 49th nationally. Barrington Hargress is the main reason that might carry over. The returning guard posted an offensive rating of 133.1, by far the best among the Buffs' returners, and he is the steady handler ACU's traps will hunt.

A parade to the line

The other half of the Abilene Christian bargain: it fouls. Last season opponents attempted free throws at a rate of 52.0% of their field goal attempts against the Wildcats, dead last of 365.

That plays into Colorado's hands. The Buffs made 76.1% of their free throws, 47th nationally, and Hargress hit 83.5%. If Tanner's newcomers defend like last year's team, Colorado scores with the clock stopped, which stretches the game and makes a lopsided margin easier to build. The gamble cost ACU beyond the arc too: opponents made 39.4% of their threes, 364th.

Colorado's frontcourt rebuild

Four of Colorado's top five scorers left, including Isaiah Johnson to Texas and Bangot Dak to Vanderbilt. The replacements arrive up front. Justin Neely, a graduate transfer from UNC Greensboro, averaged 17.9 points and 11.5 rebounds there, then led the Buffs in rebounds and assists in the Oct. 18 exhibition against North Texas. Noah Feddersen, a 6-10 center, was Summit League Sixth Man of the Year at North Dakota State. Goc Malual rounds out the group, and freshman guard Alex Dickeson led the exhibition with 15 points.

Boyle called the frontcourt the team's question mark in September. David Gomez, the Charlotte transfer who missed the summer with stress fractures in his foot, has returned to practice and played in a preseason win over North Texas. Late-October previews split on whether he is a key piece or depth, and Colorado hasn't said what his role will be Monday.

Where ACU's points come from

Last season's Wildcats scored 101.4 points per 100 possessions, 337th, and gave the ball away on 20.5% of trips, 352nd. Their top scorer, Bradyn Hubbard, left for Little Rock.

Noah Bolanga, a preseason All-UAC pick from Utah Tech, inherits the load after averaging 11.9 points there while shooting 32.6% from three. Yaniel Rivera is the top returning scorer at 7.2 points. Colorado's defense offers them openings: it allowed 113.4 points per 100 possessions last season, 301st.

What the market expects

Colorado is favored by 18.25, up from 17.5 when our feed first logged the game on Nov. 1. The total slipped to 152 from 152.5.

Last season's final adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions against the schedule played, put Colorado 84th and Abilene Christian 253rd. With both rosters gutted, those ratings describe teams that largely no longer exist, so tonight's number leans on Colorado's transfers and Hargress more than on history. A total in the 150s fits a Colorado defense that gave up 79.8 points per game last season and an ACU defense that sends opponents to the line constantly.