Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors prediction: Warriors' thin home opener runs into Zach Edey and Memphis' paint attack

A home opener with holes

The Warriors open Chase Center looking nothing like the team they hoped to field. Jimmy Butler III is out recovering from a torn right ACL, with a possible return between January and February as of Oct. 16. Moses Moody is out after rupturing his left patellar tendon, targeting December or January. Kristaps Porziņģis is out with recurring symptoms of POTS, and Steve Kerr admitted "we don't really know" when he returns.

The questions run deeper. Brandin Podziemski missed the opener with lower back soreness and is questionable, as is Charles Bassey with a knee issue. Podziemski played all 82 games last season and averaged 13.8 points. Stephen Curry played through a sprained right ankle at the Lakers and scored 23. He is not on the league injury report for Friday, though he has been described as day-to-day.

That opener was ugly. Golden State lost 127-105, and the Lakers posted a 63.6% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), the worst mark any defense allowed on opening week, 30th of 30.

Memphis lives near the rim

The matchup that should decide this game sits in the paint. Memphis scored 58 points there against Utah, 6th in the league, and Zach Edey played 21 minutes in his first regular-season game after two left-ankle surgeries. He is expected to start again.

Golden State has little to throw at him. The Warriors gave up 66 paint points to the Lakers, 29th, and their block rate was 27th. Bassey's status matters more than his profile suggests, because the Warriors traded Trayce Jackson-Davis and lost Quinten Post to Memphis over the summer.

The Grizzlies also cleaned the defensive glass, grabbing 88.9% of available defensive rebounds, 2nd in the league. If Golden State misses as it did at the Lakers, second chances may not come. Memphis could add more size if Isaiah Stewart, questionable with a left ankle sprain, is cleared.

Who these Grizzlies are now

Last season's 25-57 team is a weak guide. Memphis returns just 52.6% of its minutes, and this is its first season without Ja Morant. Jaren Jackson Jr. went to Utah in a February trade, and the Grizzlies are wearing a patch honoring the late Brandon Clarke.

The new version looked dangerous in a 123-103 win over Utah. Ty Jerome scored a career-high 45 points. Jerami Grant, who averaged 18.6 points for Portland last season, combined with GG Jackson for 27 bench points. No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer struggled, going 2-of-15, though he grabbed 11 rebounds.

Depth is the worry. Cedric Coward is doubtful with a left wrist sprain, and his status was still unsettled Friday. Stewart is a true question mark.

Golden State's turnover lever

The Warriors' best counter is chaos. Their steal rate of 14.6% led the league in the opener, and they ranked 7th in forcing turnovers overall. That fits a Kerr team built around Draymond Green's hands and reads.

Memphis protected the ball well against Utah, with a turnover rate of 14.4 per 100 possessions, 10th. The Grizzlies also leaned on one-on-one scoring: their assist rate ranked 26th. If Golden State can push Jerome and the guards into live-ball mistakes, it can offset the size gap with points in transition.

What the market sees

Golden State is a 3-point favorite, down from -4 when our feed first saw the game, so the move has gone toward Memphis. The moneyline sits at -147 for the Warriors and +124 for the Grizzlies. The total has barely moved, from 235 to 234.5, and both teams stayed under their opening-night totals.

History favors the home side. The Warriors won all three meetings last season, including a 114-113 escape at Chase Center. They were a poor bet as a team, though, covering only 25 times in 63 games with a line. This Memphis roster barely resembles the one Golden State swept.