Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction: Can the Bulls hold the ball? Milwaukee rarely takes it away

Chicago's turnover hangover

Tiago Splitter's debut on Wednesday became the largest loss by a head coach debuting with a new team in NBA history, a 135-92 beating in Toronto that also stands as the worst opening-night loss in Bulls franchise history. The film is ugly from every angle. Chicago hit 4 of 36 threes and gave the ball away so often that its turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) sits at 24.0%, 30th of 30. Rookie Caleb Wilson, the No. 4 pick, scored 16 points but committed nine turnovers.

The opponent offers relief. Milwaukee's forced turnover rate is 12.4%, 27th in the league, and its steal rate ranks dead last. The Bucks let Washington play clean basketball and paid for it. If Chicago simply cuts its giveaways to a normal level, a lot of empty possessions turn into shots. Splitter isn't retreating: he still wants a fast pace and a deep rotation.

Whistles and the paint

The quiet edge for Chicago sits at the foul line. The Bulls' free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 55.3%, 1st in the league, even on a night when nothing else worked. Milwaukee's opponent free throw rate is 47.7%, 29th. Kel'el Ware fouled out in the opener and Myles Turner got into early foul trouble, so the Bucks' big-man depth is the pressure point.

Milwaukee's interior was the real problem in Washington. The Wizards scored 70 points in the paint, 30th of 30, and made 67.2% of their twos. Chicago wants to attack that, but it will do so without its intended starting center. Nic Claxton is out with a hamstring injury, with an estimated return of Nov. 4, leaving Jalen Smith slated to start in the middle. Claxton averaged 11.7 points for Brooklyn last season.

Herro's homecoming, act two

The Bucks are rebuilding after trading Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami, and the return from that deal shapes this team. Tyler Herro, a Milwaukee native, led the Bucks with 24 points and nine assists in his debut. He averaged 20.5 points for the Heat last season, joined by Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Ware from that trade.

The shooting is the strength. Ryan Rollins made 40.6% of his threes last season and AJ Green hit 41.9%, which matters against a Chicago defense that allowed opponents only 32.3% from deep in its first game, 15th. Milwaukee's late collapse is the worry: a 21-2 Wizards run in the fourth quarter flipped a 96-90 Bucks lead. Taylor Jenkins, in his second game in charge, has said the rotation may run deep while he sorts it out.

The Bucks list no injuries. Chicago's report is murky: Jordan Hawkins and Dailyn Swain are game-time decisions with illness, and Josh Giddey (wrist) is listed probable on some reports.

Tempo, history and the line

Chicago played at 112.5 possessions per game in the opener, 3rd fastest, and ran 3rd fastest last season too. Milwaukee sits 13th. More possessions push toward a big total, and the market agrees at 238.5. Last season's teams leaned the other way: the Bulls went under in 38 of 66 games with a line, the Bucks in 35 of 64. Both rosters have turned over heavily, though, with Chicago returning 57.2% of last season's minutes.

Milwaukee won three of four meetings last season, though both rosters have changed since. The spread hasn't budged from Bucks -1 since our feed first saw it, and the moneyline is nearly even. Neither team is on a back-to-back after both played Wednesday.