Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs prediction: Houston's glass-crashing tests a short-handed Spurs team in Austin
The Rockets have owned the offensive boards for two straight seasons, and San Antonio, already without Tobias Harris and unsure about De'Aaron Fox, has to end possessions after one shot.
| Spread | San Antonio Spurs -5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 224.5 |
- Expect a grind. Houston plays slow and hunts second shots; San Antonio needs Wembanyama's rim protection and clean defensive rebounding to control the margin.
- Houston's offensive rebounders against San Antonio's defensive glass. The Rockets ranked 1st in offensive rebound rate last season and again through one game.
- Spurs -5.5, down from -7 when our feed first saw it. Houston covered just 27 of 68 lined games last season.
Second chances decide this
The Spurs return home to Austin on Friday after a sour opener, and the team walking in is the one that crashes the glass harder than anyone. Houston grabbed 40.5% of its own misses against Dallas, 1st in the league. That is no fluke: the Rockets also ranked 1st in offensive rebound rate (the share of their missed shots they recover) last season at 34.8%.
San Antonio is built to stop exactly that. The Spurs led the league in defensive rebound rate last season and sit 6th this year at 77.8%. With Wembanyama patrolling the paint, the question is whether Houston's bigs can keep him busy enough to free the weak side.
The complication for Houston is Steven Adams. The center is questionable with right calf soreness after missing Wednesday's win over Dallas, and he sat the final two preseason games for rest. If he can't go, Clint Capela takes on more of the rebounding load next to Alperen Sengun.
A thin Spurs rotation
San Antonio's injury report is the busiest part of this preview. Tobias Harris, signed this summer, is out with a left calf strain. Fox is questionable with a right wrist sprain, though he played 32 minutes in Tuesday's loss to Oklahoma City. Keldon Johnson is questionable after needing stitches for a deep cut inside his cheek. Rookie Jayden Quaintance remains out after knee surgery and hadn't been cleared for basketball activities as of Oct. 19.
If Fox sits, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper take on more of the playmaking, and Julian Champagnie likely moves into the starting group. That scrambles the three-guard look Mitch Johnson has been building with Fox, Castle and Harper.
The offense needs a lift regardless. The Spurs scored 96.4 points per 100 possessions against the Thunder, 24th in the league, and Wembanyama went 1-of-13 from the field even while blocking six shots. San Antonio also plays at Dallas on Saturday, so this is the front end of a back-to-back, which could shape how the Spurs handle anyone who is limited.
Durant's jumper and Wembanyama's wall
Houston's opener came with a stylistic shift. The Rockets ranked 28th in 3-point attempt rate last season; against Dallas, 40.9% of their shots came from deep, and they made 44.4% of their threes, 1st in the league. Shooting coach Chip Engelland is new to the staff, and Kevin Durant hit 41.3% from three last season.
That matters because San Antonio's interior defense held Oklahoma City to 45.3% on twos, 2nd in the league, while the Thunder made 45.2% of their threes against them, worst of 30. One game says little, but the blueprint for Houston is clear: take the open three rather than challenge Wembanyama at the rim.
Houston's own defense has a soft spot to watch. Dallas shot 71.4% on twos against the Rockets, 30th in the league, which gives Castle and Fox, if he plays, a lane to attack.
Pace, history and the line
Houston ranked 26th in pace last season and again through one game, so the Rockets will try to drag this into a half-court fight. San Antonio ran more against Oklahoma City, ranking 9th in pace.
The Spurs won three of four meetings last season, including a 145-120 rout on March 8. The market still favors them, but the spread has moved from -7 to -5.5, toward Houston, as the Spurs' injury list grew. The total has ticked up from 226.5 to 227.75.
Both teams leaned under last season: Houston went 29-39 against the total and San Antonio went 27-39.
Key players
- Kevin Durant (Houston Rockets): Averaged 26.0 points on 41.3% 3-point shooting for Houston last season.
- Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets): Put up 20.4 points and 6.2 assists per game for Houston last season, and his workload could grow if Adams sits.
- Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets): Logged 37.4 minutes a night for Houston last season while averaging 18.3 points and 7.8 rebounds.
- Marcus Smart (Houston Rockets): Averaged 9.3 points and 1.4 steals for the Lakers last season before joining Houston.
- Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs): Shot 1-of-13 in Tuesday's opener but still blocked six shots.
- De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs): Averaged 18.6 points and 6.2 assists for San Antonio last season and is questionable with a wrist sprain.
- Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs): Averaged 7.4 assists for San Antonio last season and would run more of the offense if Fox sits.
- Julian Champagnie (San Antonio Spurs): Made 38.1% of 512 three-point attempts for San Antonio last season.
Numbers that matter
| Rockets offensive rebound % | 40.5% | 1st in the league after the opener, matching Houston's 1st-place rank last season. |
|---|---|---|
| Spurs defensive rebound % | 77.8% | 6th this season after leading the league last season. |
| Rockets 3-point % | 44.4% | 1st in the league against Dallas, from a team that took few threes last season. |
| Spurs opponent 2-point % | 45.3% | 2nd in the league, the mark of Wembanyama's rim protection. |
| Spread movement | -5.5 | San Antonio was -7 when our feed first saw the game, and the line has moved toward Houston. |
Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs: quick answers
Who is favored in Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs?
San Antonio Spurs is favored by 5 points (San Antonio Spurs -5).
What is the over/under for Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs?
The total is 224.5 points.
When is Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs?
Friday, October 23, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET.