New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz prediction: Zion Williamson goes at a Jazz frontline missing Jusuf Nurkić
Utah's home opener turns on whether a shot-blocking rotation without its starting center can finally finish possessions against a Pelicans team that swept them last season.
| Spread | Utah Jazz -1 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 239.5 |
- Expect a physical, foul-heavy game decided in the paint, where New Orleans attacks and Utah, thin at center, protects the rim but loses the glass.
- Zion Williamson against Jaxson Hayes and Jaren Jackson Jr., with Utah's shot-blocking pitted against its rebounding.
- Utah is a 2-point favorite, down from -4.5 when our feed first saw the game; New Orleans went 36-29 against the spread last season.
Blocks without the boards
The Jazz open at home with Jusuf Nurkić out with a partial plantar plate tear in his right foot, and his listed return isn't until Nov. 4. Utah's opening loss in Memphis showed both sides of life without him. Jaxson Hayes started in his place and blocked six shots, and Utah's block rate (blocks per opponent 2-point attempt) sits at 20.3%, 1st in the league.
The problem came after the misses. Memphis outrebounded Utah 55-38 and grabbed 15 offensive boards on the way to a 123-103 rout. Utah's own offensive rebound rate was 11.1%, 29th of 30. New Orleans was 5th in defensive rebound rate in its opener at 79.5%, so second chances for the Jazz could be scarce again.
That sets up Zion Williamson. He shot 60.0% from the field last season and averaged 21.0 points. Tony Bradley, a backup center, is questionable with a quad strain, which could leave Hayes and Jackson to absorb most of the contact.
Two teams, two levels of turnover
These rosters changed at very different rates. New Orleans returns 85.0% of last season's minutes, and the core looks familiar: Dejounte Murray, cleared from his toe injury, scored 23 in the opener and Williamson added 22. Bennedict Mathurin is the notable newcomer after averaging 17.6 points for the Pacers last season. Jamahl Mosley is new on the bench.
Utah brings back only 64.8% of last season's minutes, so its 2025-26 team numbers are a weak guide. Jaren Jackson Jr., acquired from Memphis in February, averaged 19.4 points for the Grizzlies last season but committed five turnovers and fouled out in the opener. Darryn Peterson, the No. 2 overall pick, started and played 31 minutes in his debut. Keyonte George, fresh off an extension, remains the engine after averaging 23.6 points last season. Guard Trey Alexander's status is unsettled: the league report had him out with a knee bone bruise as of Oct. 22, while other listings call him day-to-day.
Halves and history
New Orleans owned this matchup last season, winning all three meetings, including 129-118 and 115-105 in Salt Lake City. The April rematch in New Orleans finished 156-137.
The Pelicans' opener offered a warning about holding leads. They led Indiana 66-56 at halftime and lost 123-120 on a late Tyrese Haliburton shot. Utah went the other way in Memphis, trailing 64-51 at the break with no comeback.
The free throw line could settle a close one. Both teams got to the line often in their openers, but New Orleans made 91.9% of its free throws, 1st in the league, while Utah made 66.7%, 26th. With Jackson's foul trouble and Williamson's drives, that gap could add up quickly.
The market slides toward New Orleans
Utah opened in our feed as a 4.5-point favorite and now sits at -2, with the Jazz at -125 on the moneyline. The total has dipped from 241.5 to 239.
The Pelicans' cover record last season (36-29) is a reminder they were a decent bet even in a 26-56 year. On the total, the openers split: New Orleans went over a 238.5 number, and Utah stayed under 240.5. Last season's Jazz went over in 40 of 66 games, but that came with a different roster and a defense that ranked 29th in efficiency.
What to watch
- Utah's offensive rebounding after the 55-38 beating in Memphis.
- Whether Jackson stays out of foul trouble against Williamson.
- Bradley's status and how much Hayes can play.
- Whether New Orleans holds up in the second half after giving away a 10-point halftime lead.
Key players
- Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaged 21.0 points on 60.0% shooting last season and scored 22 in the opener.
- Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans): Led the Pelicans with 21.5 points per game last season while hitting 37.9% from three.
- Bennedict Mathurin (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaged 17.6 points for the Indiana Pacers last season.
- Keyonte George (Utah Jazz): Averaged 23.6 points and 6.1 assists last season.
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (Utah Jazz): Averaged 19.4 points and 1.4 blocks for the Memphis Grizzlies last season.
- Jaxson Hayes (Utah Jazz): Shot 75.6% from the field for the Lakers last season and blocked six shots in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Jazz offensive rebound rate | 11.1% | Ranks 29th after Memphis dominated the glass in the opener. |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz block rate | 20.3% | Ranks 1st, driven by Hayes's six-block night in Nurkić's absence. |
| Spread movement | -4.5 to -2 | The line has moved toward New Orleans since our feed first saw the game. |
| Jazz returning minutes | 64.8% | A heavy roster turnover makes Utah's numbers from last season a weak guide. |
| Pelicans free throw % | 91.9% | Ranks 1st, against Utah's 66.7%, 26th. |
New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz: quick answers
Who is favored in New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz?
Utah Jazz is favored by 1 points (Utah Jazz -1).
What is the over/under for New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz?
The total is 239.5 points.
When is New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz?
Friday, October 23, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET.