Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat prediction: Giannis and the remade Heat face Detroit's assault on the glass

Miami's opener exposed the glass

The Heat pushed their chips in over the summer, sending Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and multiple first-round picks to Milwaukee for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis. Night one did not go to plan. Minnesota won 131-106 in Miami, Anthony Edwards scored 45, and the Heat failed to cover as a 1.5-point favorite.

The rebounding was the loudest alarm. Miami grabbed just 63.8% of available defensive rebounds, 27th of 30, and its offensive rebound rate ranks dead last. That is a bad problem to carry into a game with Detroit, which rebounded 34.1% of its own misses against Boston, 7th in the league. Jalen Duren averaged 10.5 rebounds last season and shot 65.0% from the floor.

Antetokounmpo was blunt afterward: "we got to dig in and trust one another even more, which is something that we didn't do tonight." Effort on the defensive glass is the first place that shows up.

Detroit's arc is the opening

The Pistons won their opener, but not cleanly. They trailed Boston by 22, scored only 45 first-half points (26th in the league), and needed a late surge from 99-89 down to a 112-99 lead. Javonte Green scored all 19 of his points after halftime, and former Heat shooter Duncan Robinson added 21 with five threes.

The soft spot was the perimeter. Boston shot 40.5% from three, which ranks Detroit 27th in 3-point defense, and the Pistons allowed one of the league's highest 3-point attempt rates. Last season this was the league's stingiest perimeter defense, holding opponents to 34.5% from deep.

Miami has the personnel to test it, even after shooting 24.2% from three in its opener. Tim Hardaway Jr. hit 40.7% of his threes for Denver last season, Portis made 45.6% for Milwaukee, and Klay Thompson knocked down three triples in his Heat debut.

A new Heat roster still forming

Miami returns only 61.5% of last season's minutes, against 72.8% for Detroit, so last season's Heat numbers say little about this group. The projected starters are Davion Mitchell, Thompson, Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins and Antetokounmpo.

Antetokounmpo averaged 27.6 points on 62.4% shooting for the Bucks last season, though he played only 36 games. Adebayo missed the last three preseason games with right groin tightness but scored 15 on 6-of-12 in the opener and isn't on the injury report. Miami had no players listed as out, doubtful or questionable on Thursday's report.

Detroit's only listed player is Taurean Prince, who is probable with a personal matter as of Oct. 22 after missing the opener. Newcomers John Collins and Isaiah Joe went 5-of-16 from three in their Pistons debut, so there is upside in that shooting.

The market swung to Detroit

Our feed first saw Miami as a 2-point favorite. The line has since moved to Detroit by 1, a flip that reflects both openers: the Pistons covered as 1.5-point underdogs against Boston, and the Heat lost by a wide margin at home.

The total has barely moved, from 237.0 to 236.5. Tempo is the tension: Miami plays at the league's 7th-fastest pace, while Detroit ranks 24th. Last season the Heat went over in 37 of 65 games and the Pistons stayed under in 36 of 65.

The series has been tight. Miami won two of three meetings last season, but Detroit took the lone game in Miami 138-135 in November.

What to watch

• Second-chance points: if Duren keeps Miami off the defensive glass, Detroit's slower pace still produces extra shots.
• Miami's catch-and-shoot threes: Hardaway, Portis and Thompson against a Pistons defense that gave up open looks in its opener.
• Detroit's first half: the Pistons can't spot Miami another big early deficit on the road.