Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers prediction: Haliburton comes home to a Mavericks defense ranked dead last
Indiana's star plays his first home game in 492 days against a short-handed Dallas team that couldn't stop Houston, couldn't hold the ball and plays again Saturday.
| Spread | Indiana Pacers -7 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 240 |
- Indiana's ball security and paint attack should grind on a Dallas defense that gave up 70 first-half points in its opener.
- Tyrese Haliburton running the Pacers' offense against a Mavericks backcourt that turned it over at a 20.8% rate in Houston.
- Indiana opened at -5.5 and now sits at -6.5; Dallas ranks 30th of 30 in defensive efficiency after one game.
Haliburton's long road home
Tyrese Haliburton hasn't played in Gainbridge Fieldhouse in 492 days. He returned from his Achilles injury Wednesday in New Orleans and looked like himself: 23 points and 12 assists, with his late play putting Indiana ahead for good in a 123-120 win.
The Pacers built that night inside. They scored 64.0 points in the paint, 3rd of 30 after one game, and pushed in transition behind a healthy point guard. Ivica Zubac, acquired at last season's trade deadline, anchors a projected starting five with Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam. Nesmith (hamstring) is questionable, as is Ben Sheppard (knee); T.J. McConnell (hamstring) is out, and Johnny Furphy is done for the season with a torn ACL.
A Dallas defense without a floor
Dallas allowed 127.1 points per 100 possessions in its opener, last in the league. The damage came in one burst: Houston won the second quarter 38-12 and led by 32 at halftime.
The glass made it worse. The Mavericks grabbed only 59.5% of available defensive rebounds, also 30th, and they won't get help in the middle tonight. Dereck Lively II (foot) and Santi Aldama (knee) were ruled out on the league report, along with Caleb Martin (thumb) and Tarik Biberovic (heel), though some listings still carry Martin, Lively and Biberovic as day-to-day. Morez Johnson Jr. took significant center minutes in Houston. Zubac pulled down 10.6 rebounds per game for the Clippers last season, and Indiana will test that thin frontcourt early.
Possessions are the hidden edge
The sharpest statistical gap here is ball security. Dallas coughed it up on 20.8% of its possessions in Houston (turnover rate, per 100 possessions), 27th in the league. Indiana turned it over on just 12.2%, 2nd. If the Mavericks turn Indiana over and run, they can hang around. If they keep giving away possessions against a Pacers team that scored on the break all night in New Orleans, the margin grows.
Flagg, Irving and a new bench boss
Cooper Flagg carried the Dallas offense in Houston with 32 points. Kyrie Irving, back from his March 2025 ACL tear, added 15 and is not on tonight's injury report. When the Mavericks got to their spots, they finished: they made 71.4% of their twos, 1st in the league.
The question is everything else. Dusty May, Michigan's former coach, is running his first NBA bench after replacing the fired Jason Kidd, and he used ten players before halftime in the opener. A tighter rotation is expected. Max Christie, who shot 40.4% from three for Dallas last season, is the spacer Flagg needs. Schedule matters too: Dallas hosts San Antonio on Saturday, Irving's first back-to-back of the season, and his status for that game isn't confirmed.
Where the market has landed
Our feed first saw Indiana at -5.5; the line has moved to -6.5 across 11 books, with the Pacers at -230 on the moneyline. The total has crept to 237.5.
Both openers went over, and both teams carry rosters that look different from last season. Dallas returns only 56.1% of last season's minutes, so its 26-56 record from 2025-26 says little. Indiana went 19-63 last season. One reminder for Pacers backers: Dallas won both meetings last season, including 134-130 in Indianapolis.
What to watch
- Dallas turnovers in the first quarter
- Whether Nesmith plays and who covers Flagg
- Zubac on the offensive glass against a depleted Mavericks frontcourt
Key players
- Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers): Posted 23 points and 12 assists in Wednesday's season-opening win in New Orleans, his first game back from an Achilles injury.
- Pascal Siakam (Indiana Pacers): Averaged 24.0 points per game for Indiana last season.
- Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers): Dished 7.7 assists per game for the Pacers last season as the primary creator in Haliburton's absence.
- Ivica Zubac (Indiana Pacers): Averaged 10.6 rebounds per game last season, mostly for the Clippers before the deadline trade.
- Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks): Scored 32 points in the opener at Houston after averaging 21.0 per game as a rookie last season.
- Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks): Scored 15 points in his return from a March 2025 ACL tear and is not on tonight's injury report.
- Max Christie (Dallas Mavericks): Shot 40.4% from three for Dallas last season, the team's best returning perimeter threat.
- Zaccharie Risacher (Dallas Mavericks): Shot 36.8% from three for the Atlanta Hawks last season before arriving in Dallas.
Numbers that matter
| Dallas defensive efficiency | 127.1 | Points allowed per 100 possessions in the opener, 30th of 30. |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas turnover rate | 20.8% | 27th in the league, against an Indiana offense that turned it over on 12.2% of possessions. |
| Dallas defensive rebound % | 59.5% | Last in the league, and Lively and Aldama are out. |
| Indiana paint points | 64.0 | 3rd of 30 in the opener, a strength aimed straight at Dallas's thin frontcourt. |
| Spread movement | -6.5 | Indiana was first seen at -5.5 and the line has moved toward the Pacers. |
Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers: quick answers
Who is favored in Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers?
Indiana Pacers is favored by 7 points (Indiana Pacers -7).
What is the over/under for Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers?
The total is 240 points.
When is Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers?
Friday, October 23, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.