Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers prediction: Luka Doncic's post-LeBron Lakers face a Clippers team missing its scorers
Both Los Angeles teams opened with blowouts, but the Lakers bring their stars to this one and the Clippers bring an injury list and a roster still finding itself.
| Spread | Los Angeles Lakers -8.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 225.5 |
- The Lakers should control this through Doncic and Reaves, while the Clippers try to steal possessions and run.
- Clippers ball pressure against a sloppy Lakers offense: steals and run-outs are the visitors' clearest path to staying close.
- Lakers -9, down from -9.75 when our feed first saw it; the Lakers' 17.5% turnover rate is what Clippers backers are counting on.
Luka's team now
The first Battle of L.A. of the season is also the first real test of a franchise that now runs entirely through Luka Doncic. LeBron James is gone, and the Lakers return only 39.9% of last season's minutes. That makes last year's team numbers a weak guide. The players who matter are the ones still here: Doncic averaged 33.5 points last season, and Austin Reaves, re-signed this summer, added 23.3.
The opener showed what JJ Redick's rebuilt group can look like. The Lakers beat Golden State 127-105 and led 66-52 at halftime, starting with a Doncic lob to new center Walker Kessler on the first possession. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, sits 1st in the league after one game. Collin Sexton has been cleared from a calf strain and is expected to make his Lakers debut, adding another ball handler to the rotation.
A Clippers roster still being built
The Clippers that split last season's series are mostly gone. Kawhi Leonard (27.9 points per game last season) was traded to Toronto, and James Harden (23.6) is in Cleveland. Ivica Zubac left too. Brandon Ingram arrived in the Leonard deal, but he is recovering from a partially torn Achilles and is listed out, with an expected return around Nov. 8.
The list does not stop there. Max Strus is out with a partially torn plantar fascia, and Jordan Miller is out after shoulder surgery. Bradley Beal (knee) and Yanic Konan Niederhauser (foot) are listed out on the league report, though some Friday listings had both as day-to-day, so treat their status as unsettled until the final report.
What Tyronn Lue does have played well Wednesday. Darius Garland led a 121-96 rout of Sacramento, and No. 5 pick Keaton Wagler scored 15 off the bench in his debut. Rui Hachimura, now on the other side of this rivalry, shot 44.3% from three for the Lakers last season.
Steals against a loose handle
The sharpest matchup is the Clippers' hands against the Lakers' ball security. The Clippers' steal rate of 13.6% ranks 2nd, with Kris Dunn leading a long, pesky starting group. The Lakers turned it over on 17.5% of their possessions in the opener, 23rd in the league.
Those steals turn into points. The Clippers scored 27 fast-break points against Sacramento, 4th in the league. In the half court, the Lakers carry the edge inside: their 66 paint points rank 2nd, and Kessler gives Doncic a vertical target the Clippers will try to cover with Isaiah Jackson. If the Lakers protect the ball, the size and shot-making gap should show. If they don't, the Clippers get the game they want.
What the market says
The Lakers are 9-point favorites, down from 9.75 when our feed first saw the game, a small move toward the Clippers. The total of 228.5 hasn't moved. Both teams covered as home favorites Wednesday, and both games went under, against closing totals of 233.5 and 226.5.
The Clippers went 37-28 against the spread last season, though that came with a very different roster. The series split last season, with each team winning both home games, including a 135-118 Lakers rout. The teams meet again Oct. 28 at Intuit Dome, so this is the first of two in six days.
Key players
- Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers): Averaged 33.5 points and 8.3 assists for the Lakers last season and now carries the offense without LeBron James.
- Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers): Averaged 23.3 points for the Lakers last season before re-signing this summer.
- Collin Sexton (Los Angeles Lakers): Shot 40.1% from three and scored 15.4 points per game for Charlotte last season.
- Jake LaRavia (Los Angeles Lakers): Started 43 of 82 games for the Lakers last season and is questionable with a right ankle sprain.
- Rui Hachimura (LA Clippers): Shot 44.3% from three while averaging 11.5 points for the Lakers last season.
- Kris Dunn (LA Clippers): Averaged 1.6 steals in 27.2 minutes for the Clippers last season.
- Derrick Jones Jr. (LA Clippers): Scored 10.1 points per game on 49.9% shooting for the Clippers last season.
Numbers that matter
| Lakers spread | -9 | Down from -9.75 when our feed first recorded the game, a move toward the Clippers. |
|---|---|---|
| Clippers steal rate | 13.6% | Ranks 2nd after one game and is their best route to extra possessions. |
| Lakers turnover rate | 17.5% | Ranks 23rd, the opening the Clippers' pressure is built to exploit. |
| Lakers paint points | 66 | 2nd in the league after the opener, with Kessler finishing Doncic's lobs. |
| Lakers returning minutes | 39.9% | Most of last season's Lakers rotation is gone, so last year's team numbers say little. |
Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers: quick answers
Who is favored in Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers?
Los Angeles Lakers is favored by 8.5 points (Los Angeles Lakers -8.5).
What is the over/under for Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers?
The total is 225.5 points.
When is Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers?
Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.