Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards prediction: Anthony Davis drags Washington to the rim against Toronto's grabby defense

Davis goes looking for whistles

Washington's opener was a blueprint. The Wizards scored 70 points in the paint against Milwaukee, first in the league after one night, and made 67.2% of their twos, second. Anthony Davis was the engine with 34 points and 12 rebounds.

The second piece is the free throw line. Washington's free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, sits at 47.7%, second in the league. Toronto's defense swarmed Chicago but fouled constantly: its opponent free throw rate of 55.3% ranks 30th of 30. One game is a small sample for both teams, but this is the collision most likely to decide the night.

Toronto did keep Chicago to 40 paint points, third-best. It will need that rim defense without Bittle, who remains listed out with a right foot fracture and an estimated return of Oct. 28, though not every injury listing agrees, so his status isn't fully settled. Deandre Ayton and Alex Sarr are listed as available, giving Washington size to keep pressing.

Toronto's defense is its offense

The Raptors' 135-92 rout of Chicago came from the defensive end. Toronto forced turnovers on 24.0% of opponent possessions, first in the league, and turned them into 34 fast-break points, also first. It led 69-44 at halftime and never looked back.

Washington is built to deny that fuel, at least so far. The Wizards turned it over on 12.4% of possessions, third-best, and Trae Young ran the offense for 20 points and 13 assists without handing Milwaukee easy runouts. Washington managed only 9 fast-break points of its own, 26th, so it has little interest in a track meet. If Young protects the ball, Toronto has to score in the halfcourt, where it made just 32.3% of its threes in the opener.

Leonard's arrival resets Toronto

Kawhi Leonard replaces Brandon Ingram, who averaged 21.5 points for Toronto last season before leaving for the Clippers. Leonard scored 23 in his Raptors debut and checked out with about 8:12 left in a blowout, with no minutes restriction reported. Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley each added 23.

Toronto returns 66.3% of last season's minutes, so last year's 46-36 team is a partial guide at best. The new version, with Leonard as a halfcourt release valve, looks more dangerous than the one Washington beat 138-117 in December. Toronto won the other two meetings last season, including 134-125 in Washington.

Washington waits on Dybantsa

The Wizards' first look at No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa is delayed again. Coach Brian Keefe confirmed Thursday that the rookie will miss a second straight game with a sprained left ankle. Tristan Vukcevic (hip) is also out, and Jamir Watkins is out for the season after ACL surgery. Rookie center Felix Okpara is questionable with an illness as of Oct. 22, and Washington plans to check on him closer to tipoff.

Last season's 17-65 record tells you little about this group, which added Davis, Young and Ayton. One warning from the opener: Washington trailed Milwaukee 51-56 at halftime and won it late. Falling behind early against Toronto's pace is riskier.

Where the market sits

Toronto is a 6.5-point road favorite, up from 4 when our feed first recorded the game, with the Raptors at -260 on the moneyline. The total sits at 237, a touch above the first number our feed saw.

Both teams covered as favorites on opening night. The totals history pulls in opposite directions: Toronto went under in 41 of 65 lined games last season, while Washington went over in 37 of 66. The free throw line is the swing factor for the total, since whistles stop Toronto's break but add points at the stripe.