New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics prediction: Mitchell Robinson's Knicks reunion puts Boston's thin interior on trial

Robinson comes home, sort of

The Celtics spent the summer tearing up a 56-win roster, and the most pointed addition was a center the Knicks chose not to pay. Mitchell Robinson signed a three-year deal in Boston after New York declined to go into the second apron, and now he projects to start against his old team in the Celtics' home opener. Knicks coach Mike Brown kept it simple: "we want to kick his (butt) like he probably wants to kick ours." Robinson shrugged it off: "It doesn't really matter that I'm playing my former team."

He matters for a specific reason. Boston scored just 34.0 points in the paint in its opener at Detroit, last of 30 teams, and grabbed only 65.9% of available defensive rebounds, 25th. Robinson shot 72.3% from the field for New York last season and pulled down 8.8 rebounds in under 20 minutes a night. If he can't give Boston a presence near the rim, the Knicks will keep living there. One opener is a small sample, but it fits a team that lost a lot of size this summer.

Boston lives behind the arc

The Celtics took 47.7% of their shots from three against the Pistons, 4th-most in the league, and hit 40.5% of them, 3rd-best. That is the identity, and it built a 58-45 halftime lead in Detroit before Boston coughed up a 22-point third-quarter advantage and lost 113-121.

The volume has new hands on it. Jaylen Brown, who averaged 28.7 points last season, now plays in Philadelphia; Paul George came back in that trade and scored 38 in his debut, the most ever by a Celtic in his first game. Boston returns 65.2% of last season's scoring, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide. Jayson Tatum is back from Achilles rehab and projected to start.

New York's perimeter defense held Philadelphia to 27.5% from three on Tuesday, 9th in the league. Whether that holds against Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser, who hit 37.7% and 39.3% of their threes last season, is the swing of the night.

The Knicks need Towns on the floor

New York's offense was a mess against the 76ers. The Knicks posted a 43.1% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times), 27th, and made just 39.3% of their twos, dead last. Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby combined to shoot 9-of-32. Brown summed it up: "What an ugly game."

The fix starts with Towns. Three first-half fouls held him to 24 minutes, and Brown spent Thursday discussing how to keep him out of trouble. Towns averaged 20.1 points and 11.9 rebounds last season; with him out there, New York's 86.7% defensive rebound rate (3rd) and its size edge over Boston's frontcourt become real. This core is largely intact, returning 87.2% of last season's minutes, so the Knicks' 116.7 offensive efficiency last season (points per 100 possessions, 3rd) is a fairer read on them than one bad night. Newcomer Andre Drummond gives Brown another big body if fouls pile up again.

The market and the rivalry

Boston is a 2.5-point favorite, the same price our feed first saw, with the moneyline at -139. The total dipped from 223.5 to 223.

History leans the other way. The Knicks won three of four meetings last season, including a 111-89 rout in Boston, and the Celtics have lost five of their last six against New York going back to the 2025 conference semifinals. Both teams were under machines last season: Knicks games went under 39 times in 67 tries with a line, Celtics games 42 of 65. Boston, then the slowest team in the league, now plays a faster, more perimeter-driven style.

Boston will be without guard Devin Carter, out with mononucleosis and listed with an estimated return of Nov. 8. The Knicks' regular rotation carried no injury designations on Thursday's report.

What to watch

• Towns' foul count in the first half, and whether Drummond is needed early.
• Boston's three-point rate: anything near Tuesday's volume makes the Knicks chase.
• Second-half leads: both teams lost after leading at halftime on opening night.
• Robinson on the offensive glass against the team that knows his game best.