Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves prediction: Minnesota loses Anthony Edwards but keeps the defense that wins games
The Wolves are still favored over a thin Golden State team, and the game may come down to whether a defense this stingy can survive without its 47-point scorer.
| Spread | Minnesota Timberwolves -4 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 227.5 |
- Minnesota's perimeter defense should squeeze Golden State's shooters, but without Edwards the Wolves need Ball and McDaniels to carry the scoring.
- The offensive glass: Golden State's league-best 35.7% offensive rebound rate against Minnesota's league-best 79.5% defensive rebound rate.
- Wolves -3.5 and a 228.5 total haven't moved since our feed first saw the game; Minnesota is 4-0 against the spread.
Minnesota without its engine
Two days ago Anthony Edwards dropped 47 points on Cleveland in an overtime loss. Tonight he is out, set for arthroscopic right-knee surgery that is expected to keep him out for up to two months. Donte DiVincenzo is also out with a torn right Achilles, so the Wolves start a revamped lineup that will hold until roughly Christmas, with more minutes expected for Shannon Jr.
The good news for Minnesota is that its 3-1 start rests on defense. The Wolves allow 98.9 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the league, and opponents are hitting just 28.4% of their threes, the lowest mark in the NBA. That is a bad draw for a Warriors team that takes and makes threes at a top-10 rate.
The scoring load falls on LaMelo Ball, who averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 assists for Charlotte last season. Jaden McDaniels and Ayo Dosunmu have to give him help.
A fight on the offensive glass
This is the matchup most likely to swing possessions. Golden State grabs 35.7% of its own misses (offensive rebound rate), best in the league. Minnesota secures 79.5% of opponents' misses, also best in the league.
The other side of that matchup favors Minnesota. The Warriors rebound only 68.2% of opponents' misses, 28th of 30, while the Wolves rank 2nd on the offensive glass at 34.8%. Golden State is starting Draymond Green at center with Al Horford behind him, on an undersized roster. Rudy Gobert averaged 11.5 rebounds last season, and second chances are where he should punish that lineup.
Where Golden State bleeds
The Warriors' defense has been ugly inside. Opponents are making 62.7% of their twos, last in the league. A Minnesota offense without Edwards' shot creation can still score through Gobert rolls and drives against a team that rarely blocks shots.
Golden State does have a way to steal possessions back. It forces turnovers on 18.3% of opponent possessions, 3rd in the league, but gives the ball away on 17.3% of its own, 26th. Minnesota also has a weakness that can make a close game interesting: it makes only 60.7% of its free throws, worst in the NBA.
A thin Warriors rotation
Golden State is missing three regulars: Kristaps Porzingis (illness, not with the team), Moses Moody (knee) and Jimmy Butler (knee). Stephen Curry, Green, Horford and Brandin Podziemski all returned Monday in Denver, and the Warriors won by 20 for their first win of the season.
The rookie Yaxel Lendeborg drove that win with 31 points, 12 rebounds and six assists. He is questionable with left-foot soreness after being tripped in that game, and will be evaluated before tip-off. If he sits, Golden State's forward depth gets very thin.
There is also a reunion. Jonathan Kuminga now plays for Minnesota, and in his last game against the Warriors he managed two points on 1-of-9 shooting in 22 minutes.
What the market sees
Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 228.5. Neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game Wednesday morning, after the Edwards news broke, so the market had already priced in his absence.
The Wolves have covered all 4 of their games, and 3 of their 4 have gone under. That fits a team that wins with defense, and it is the trend most at risk without its best scorer.
- Whether Lendeborg is cleared
- Second-chance points on both ends
- Minnesota's free throws in a tight fourth quarter
Key players
- LaMelo Ball (Minnesota Timberwolves): Averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 assists for Charlotte last season and now carries the offense with Edwards out.
- Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves): Averaged 11.5 rebounds last season and faces an undersized Warriors frontcourt.
- Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota Timberwolves): Scored 14.8 points a game on 41.2% three-point shooting last season.
- Ayo Dosunmu (Minnesota Timberwolves): Shot 43.9% from three for Chicago last season.
- Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 5.5 assists last season and now anchors a small lineup at center.
- Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 13.8 points and 5.1 rebounds across 82 games last season.
- Brandon Williams (Golden State Warriors): Scored 13.0 points a game off the bench for Dallas last season.
- Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors): Posted a 58.5% effective field goal percentage last season.
Numbers that matter
| Wolves opponent 3-point % | 28.4% | Best in the league, against a Warriors team built on threes. |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors offensive rebound % | 35.7% | Best in the NBA, against a Minnesota defense that also leads the league on the glass. |
| Warriors opponent 2-point % | 62.7% | Last in the league, an opening for Gobert and the Wolves' drivers. |
| Wolves free throw % | 60.7% | Worst in the NBA, which matters in a close finish. |
| Spread | -3.5 | Minnesota's line hasn't moved since our feed first saw the game. |
Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves: quick answers
Who is favored in Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
Minnesota Timberwolves is favored by 4 points (Minnesota Timberwolves -4).
What is the over/under for Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
The total is 227.5 points.
When is Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.