Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers prediction: Haliburton's hamstring and the Pacers' paint attack test Philadelphia's defense

The fight is in the paint

Tyrese Haliburton is back from the Achilles tear that erased his 2025-26 season, and the Pacers have looked like a different team with him. Now a left hamstring has him listed as questionable for Wednesday. He has not missed a game this season and played 35 minutes in Monday's loss at Milwaukee, posting 22 points and nine assists.

With or without him, Indiana's offense runs through the lane. The Pacers average 57.0 paint points per game, 2nd in the league, and hit 60.2% of their twos, 4th. That is a sharp turn from last season, when they ranked 24th in paint scoring.

Philadelphia is built to stop exactly that. Opponents shoot 48.7% on twos against the Sixers, 3rd of 30, and their defensive efficiency of 99.6 points allowed per 100 possessions ranks 4th. Indiana will try this without Ivica Zubac, out with a left ankle sprain. Rick Carlisle said Zubac is "doing better" with "no timetable," which leaves Jay Huff and his 1.9 blocks per game from last season as the main big man.

Philadelphia's offense is still assembling

The Sixers are 3-1 despite an offense that has barely functioned. They score 102.4 points per 100 possessions, 29th in the league, and their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 48.0% ranks 28th. They have also trailed at halftime in three of four games.

Some of that is a new team learning itself. Only 55.8% of last season's minutes return. Jaylen Brown averaged 28.7 points for Boston last season and LeBron James averaged 20.9 for the Lakers; they join Tyrese Maxey, who put up 28.3 per game.

What keeps Philadelphia afloat is care with the ball. Its turnover rate of 11.9 per 100 possessions leads the league, and Indiana is poorly equipped to change that: the Pacers' forced turnover rate ranks 23rd and their steal rate 27th. Expect the Sixers to get a shot up on nearly every trip; whether those shots fall is the open question.

Whistles favor the visitors

Indiana has been foul-prone so far this season. Opponents attempt free throws at a 33.0% rate relative to field goal tries, 25th in the league. Philadelphia's own free throw rate of 30.9% ranks 11th, so a team that struggles to make shots has a path to easy points.

The Pacers get less from the line in return. They shoot 70.1% on free throws, 29th of 30, which matters if the game stays close late.

Who suits up

Joel Embiid's status is unsettled. He rested Oct. 25 to manage plantar fasciitis in his heel, and reports conflict over whether he remains on the report. VJ Edgecombe took a knee to the midsection Saturday, sat the Detroit loss, then practiced fully Tuesday and appears likely to play. Dominick Barlow (back), Jabari Walker (knee) and Tacko Fall (quad) are out.

For Indiana, Andrew Nembhard (neck) joins Haliburton as questionable after sitting Monday. Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith are probable. T.J. McConnell and Zubac are out, and Ben Sheppard has knee surgery scheduled Wednesday. If Haliburton sits, Quenton Jackson and Braden Smith would likely absorb minutes. Kelly Oubre Jr. faces his old team; he averaged 14.1 points for the Sixers last season.

Where the market sits

Our feed first saw Philadelphia as a 1.5-point favorite; the Sixers are now laying 5, with a moneyline of -190. The total slid from 239.5 to 236.5. That movement fits the Sixers' profile: three of their four games have gone under.

History leans the same way. Philadelphia won all four meetings last season, including a 135-114 rout in Indianapolis, though Indiana went 19-63 without Haliburton, so those games say little about this version of the Pacers.

• Haliburton's and Embiid's final statuses before tip
• Indiana's paint points against Philadelphia's interior defense
• Sixers free throw volume against a foul-prone Pacers defense