Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons prediction: Hornets' three-point habit runs into a tired, Duren-less Pistons defense

Firing away without Knueppel

Charlotte's identity hasn't changed: nobody shoots more threes. The Hornets take 49.7% of their shots from deep, 1st in the league. What has changed is the accuracy. They're making 29.8% of them, 27th, and the best shooter on the roster is in street clothes. Kon Knueppel hit 42.5% from three last season and is out with a left hamstring injury, and Charles Lee has said there is still no timeline. Coby White (calf) and Grant Williams (hamstring) are out too.

That's a rough setup against Detroit. The Pistons are holding opponents to a 48.5% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), 2nd of 30. Driving isn't much of an escape hatch either: Charlotte scores 42.0 points in the paint per game, 29th.

The counterweight is Brandon Miller, who scored a career-high 39 in Monday's win over Washington, about a week after signing a five-year extension. With three rotation players down, Grayson Allen is expected to take on a bigger share of the offense.

Duren's absence opens the glass

Detroit is without Jalen Duren, who strained his right hamstring and, as of Oct. 25, was set to be re-evaluated in two weeks. That removes the Pistons' starting center, and it lands on one of the few things Charlotte does well. The Hornets grab 34.2% of their own misses, 3rd in the league, while Detroit ranks 15th on the defensive glass. Moussa Diabaté and Naz Reid, who played through an illness Monday, will hunt second chances.

Charlotte tends to give those possessions back. The Hornets turn it over on 18.5% of possessions, 29th. But Detroit, which led the league in forcing turnovers last season, sits 25th in that category this year, so the extra shots may survive.

Second night, thinner bench

The Pistons fell 111-97 at New York on Tuesday and turn around to host Charlotte the next night. Isaiah Joe's status is unsettled: the summer addition was ruled out Tuesday with a hip bruise, and sources differ on whether he is day-to-day or out tonight. Ausar Thompson was cleared to play Tuesday after missing the Philadelphia game with a right ankle sprain, and there's no word yet on tonight. If either sits, Kevin Huerter, Ronald Holland, Javonte Green and Daniss Jenkins are next in line.

Detroit's defense has carried the load, allowing 107.0 points per game, 5th. That leaves Cade Cunningham, who averaged 23.9 points and 9.9 assists last season, steering an offense ranked 11th in efficiency (points per 100 possessions) without Duren.

A series with baggage

Last season's meetings went one way. Detroit won all three, starting with a 112-86 rout in December. The matchup also carries an edge from last season's brawl at Charlotte's arena, which drew suspensions for Diabaté, Miles Bridges, Duren and Isaiah Stewart. Of that group, only Diabaté figures to be on the floor tonight.

Where the number sits

Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 215, and neither number has budged since our feed first saw the game Wednesday morning. Charlotte was a reliable cover last season at 42-23 against the spread, but only 60.8% of last season's minutes are back, so that record describes a different team.

The fresher trend is the total. The Hornets have gone under in every game this season, and both teams play slowly, with Charlotte 29th in pace and Detroit 27th.